The Alternative Investor

Trading Blog Monday (late night), August 10, 2026

8/10/2026

UPDATE ON CRUDE OIL (11:30 pm EDT)

Tensions in the Middle East this year have made crude prices very volatile. Prices accelerated from $55 in January to a high of $95.30 on May 18. From there, oil has been on a roller coaster as President Trump attempts to negotiate a deal with Iran. A plunge to $67.12 on July 2 was immediately followed by a steep rally back to $93.50 on July 23. From there, another steep drop took the price to $74.23 just last week. As I've said before, political turmoil in the Middle East is always a "wild card" factor in the analysis of crude oil. Nevertheless, we can still use cycle analysis to try and time the crests and troughs of a wildly fluctuating market.

The long-term cycle we are going to focus on in crude oil is a 6-year cycle. A new 6-year cycle in crude began with a low around $55 in December 2025. Obviously, it is very early in this cycle, and cycles are almost always bullish in their early stage. This one has been no exception. If the cycle remains bullish, there is a potential price projection to $185 or even $200 (yikes!) before the cycle is over; however, this is a 6-YEAR cycle, so it may take some time to get there.

Shorter term, it looks like we are nearing the end of a medium-term cycle that began with the low of $73.87 on April 17. This medium-term cycle has turned bearish because prices went well below that start with the steep plunge in June. The recovery in July found resistance near $90 and fell again. Because it is late in this medium-term cycle, I think we will see its final bottom soon, maybe somewhere near $60. That will probably be a good spot to buy. But prices are rising steeply again (from last Wednesday's $74.23 low) as we enter a strong reversal zone for crude (and other markets) Aug. 10 - 19. Any isolated high now could be a potential pivot point for another steep drop to that final low in the medium-term cycle.

If this plays out as I just described, it would be good to sell short from a crest this week or next. We will look for that.
If we miss it, our next goal would be to go long at the final bottom of the current medium-term cycle, which could be somewhere near $60. For now, we are still on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Sunday (late night), Aug. 9, 2026

8/8/2026

UPDATE ON SILVER (11:30 pm EDT)

There is a very long-term cycle in silver that usually lasts around 18 years. This cycle last bottomed (and started a new one) in October 2008 (with a price close to $9). That means that this year - 2026 - is the 18th year of the current cycle. During the first 15 years of this cycle, silver's price was relatively stable, and it stayed close to $20. Over the last two years, however, the price went parabolic and touched $120 in January this year. That "blow-off" top was most likely the crest of the 18-year cycle. As with most blow-off tops, prices have fallen sharply from the peak, and the price has come back down to the $59 area. A low near $55 was touched on July 17 in the dead center of a strong general reversal zone.

Was that $55 low the bottom of the 18-year cycle? Maybe, but analysis of this cycle points to a lower low and a final bottom anytime over the next 20 months (the 18-year cycle may expand a bit), and that final bottom might go as low as $30. In the meantime, that July 17 low ($54.78) looks like the start of a new medium-term cycle. If the 18-year cycle isn't over, we don't expect this new medium-term cycle to exceed that January $120 top. In fact, it may peak early and turn bearish relatively quickly as prices continue down to the final 18-year cycle trough.

Based on all the above, our trading strategy for silver at this point will be to try to sell short at the top of any modest sub-cycle rally. We may see that top in next week's reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Aug. 10 - 19). Next week is the 4th week in the medium-term cycle, which is late enough for a sub-cycle crest, and the price is facing some resistance around $64. If it breaks through that, there is more resistance near $70. Let's watch for a top next week somewhere between $64 and $70. That may be a good place to sell short.

Of course, the longer-term picture is telling us to watch for that final bottom to the 18-year cycle. As I mentioned above, the price could go as low as $30, but it doesn't have to. Wherever the price ends up (at or below $54.78), that will be a rare opportunity (every 18 years) to go long, as silver prices will be pointed up for many years after that bottom is in. It will be an especially good opportunity for longer-term "buy and hold" investors who would rather not trade the ups and downs of shorter-term cycles.

Trading Blog Wednesday, August 5, 2026

8/5/2026

UPDATE ON GOLD

At this point in time, the longest long-term cycle in gold we are going to work with is the 8-year cycle. This cycle last bottomed in September 2022 around $1620. We are now four years into that cycle, and the price has come a long way, making a steep "blow-off" top at $5595 in January of this year. This 8-year cycle is dividing into two 4-year cycles, and that blow-off top was the crest of the first one. Prices have been falling steeply from that high, and we should now be looking for the final bottom of this first 4-year cycle (which will be the start of the second one) as a potential buying opportunity. It may have already happened with the low on June 30 (at $3945), but it would be better for the 4-year bottom to form within a reversal zone (with the price a bit lower) over the next several months.

In the meantime, it looks like that June 30 low was at least the start of a new medium-term cycle. If so, prices are now rallying to the first sub-cycle high, possibly into next week's reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Aug. 10 - 19). That could turn the rally back down, and maybe even turn the cycle bearish if prices fall below the June 30 low.

The bottom line here is that we want to buy near the 4-year cycle low. A sustained and substantial rally should follow, as the early stages of all cycles are bullish. The crest of the second 4-year cycle could challenge or exceed the crest of the first one (the $5595 "blow-off" top). Even if it doesn't, buying low in the bullish early stage of a 4-year-long cycle should generate a worthwhile profit. I am going to stay on the sidelines of gold for now as we watch for another low below $4000 that could be the final bottom in the current 4-year cycle.

I will update silver and crude oil over the next few days.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), August 4, 2026

6/9/2026

I must apologize for not posting and updating the site for so long (almost three months!). Some personal business and minor health issues have been consuming a lot of my time. I have been keeping an eye on the financial markets, however, and we haven't really missed any major longer-term trading opportunities. The Iran situation continues to be unresolved, and that seems to be preventing any major directional trends from taking hold.

UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (11:30 pm EDT)

As I've mentioned in previous blogs, there is a long-term 18-year cycle in equity markets that is almost over (this is the 17th year, but the cycle has a window of flexibility of 2-3 years on either side of the 18-year mark). This means we should be watching for the final high any time now, and that would be followed by a steep fall of 35%-67% to the final bottom (expected no later than 2030).

Until this week, it seemed like that final high had already happened with the DOW's record all-time high of 53,289 on July 7 and the S&P's and NASDAQ's all-time highs on June 2 and June 1, respectively, especially considering the DOW's high was one month later than its two companions. That created a strong bearish divergence signal. But this week the markets are experiencing more "irrational exuberance", with both the DOW and S&P 500 rocketing up to new all-time highs today. Yes, the NASDAQ is still below its all-time high from June 1 (more bearish divergence), but it too is surging and looks like it is getting ready to break through that high (27,190) shortly. If that happens, our bearish divergence signal will be negated, and we can expect more rallying into the middle of this month.

We have a strong reversal zone coming up Aug. 11 - 20, and another one Aug. 25 - Sept. 3. Either of these windows could contain a significant high followed by a significant downturn. We might look for an opportunity to sell short inside those time frames. All three market indices may have started new medium-term cycles from their deep lows at the end of July. While new cycles usually start bullish, they can quickly turn bearish - especially if a longer-term cycle is ending and due (overdue) for a steep correction down. I am going to remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now. With this market's current irrational exuberance, we might be witnessing a "blow-off" top, and chasing a blow-off rally can be a dangerous game.

I will update crude oil and the precious metals tomorrow.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), May 6, 2026

5/6/2026

BRIEF UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (11:30 pm EDT)

The broad stock market continues to climb a "wall of worry" (the Iran war), even missing the opportunity to form a significant peak in last month's strong reversal zone (April 21 - 30). This is bullish behavior, but we note that although the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are surging to new all-time highs, the DOW is still below its all-time high from February 10 (50,512). Therefore, a bearish divergence signal is still in place, suggesting a downturn could be imminent. On the other hand, if the DOW can push higher and break that February top, it would confirm the trend is bullish. In that case, we might look to buy the next sub-cycle low. But if the DOW continues to stay below its all-time high, a stronger sell-off could be in the cards, and we would avoid any buying. For now, we remain on the sidelines.

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), April 28, 2026

4/28/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (10:00 pm EDT)

We have been watching for the end and bottom of the current medium-term cycle in crude oil as a possible spot to buy (see my previous blog on crude from April 20). The April 17 low at $77.22 (July contract chart) may have been it, but that low did not fall inside any reversal zone, which we like to see at significant turning points. Prices have been rising from there and are now testing the $96 blow-off top from March 9. This is happening inside a strong reversal zone that ends on Friday. A "double-top" could be forming here to be followed by a sharp correction back down to either the end of the older medium-term cycle (most likely), or the first sub-cycle bottom of a new medium-term cycle.

Considering the unstable status of President Trump's peace negotiations with Iran, it is not surprising to see crude prices surging now. They may even exceed that March 9 high before turning down. If things get really bad, we could see this "reversal" turn into a breakout instead of a reversal (which is rare, but it does happen occasionally, and the current circumstances would seem to encourage it). I am remaining on the sidelines of crude for now.

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), April 28, 2026

4/28/2026

GOLD AND SILVER UPDATES (9:00 pm EDT)
(Please see my recent updates on gold and silver on the Home Page)

Gold's overall trend remains bearish. Several longer-term cycles are pointed down. A 4-year cycle bottom is now coming due, and we may even have seen the final peak of an 8-year cycle with the blow-off top of $5595 on Jan. 29.

The current medium-term cycle in gold may have started with the low of Feb. 2 ($4406) or the low of March 23 ($4100). Either way, the cycle looks bearish, as the rally from March 23 seems to be rounding over just beneath the 45-day moving average. If bearish, we expect the next sub-cycle bottom to at least test the $4000 mark, and probably go lower. We may be looking to buy at the final bottom of the 4-year cycle, but for now, I am staying on the sidelines of gold.

Silver's trend is also looking bearish. In my April 1 blog on silver, I wrote:

"It's important to note that it is VERY late in silver's 18-year cycle. That means the 18-year top is overdue, and the $121 "blow-off" top on Jan. 30 could very well have been it. That's a good reason to favor a bearish outlook for now, with a minimal correction to $64, but also the possibility of an eventual plunge to $30."

As with gold, the current medium-term cycle in silver could have started on March 23 or in early February (Feb. 6 low).
Both look bearish. I think the safest strategy now (silver can be quite volatile) is to wait for that 18-year cycle bottom to buy. Right now, a good general target for the bottom is the $47 - $50 range, but it may go lower. I am currently on the sidelines of silver.

Trading Blog Sunday (evening), April 26, 2026

4/26/2026

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (9:30 pm EDT)

In my last blog (April 20), I stated:

"The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have both broken out to new all-time highs, and the DOW seems poised to do that this week. If it does, it will confirm our bullish view. (If it doesn't, we will have a bearish divergence signal that would jeopardize our bullish view.)"

Well, the DOW did NOT make a new high last week (while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ did), so we have a strong bearish divergence signal in place. We are in the dead center of a strong general reversal zone (April 21 - 30) that ends next Friday. The DOW still has time to make a new all-time high. If it does this with the other two indices, it will be a bullish signal, but if the NASDAQ and S&P 500 do not make new highs with the DOW, it will be another bearish divergence signal. If the DOW does NOT make a new high next week, that is also bearish. We will watch this very carefully next week. At the moment, the Trump Administration's negotiations with Iran do not seem to be going well, which could trigger a market sell-off next week. I am still on the sidelines of this market.

Trading Blog Monday (evening), April 20, 2026

4/19/2026

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET and CRUDE OIL (8:00 pm EST)

Although Wall Street and equity markets tend to dislike geopolitical uncertainty, there is a contradictory phenomenon
expressed by the saying, "bull markets climb a wall of worry". This is based on the idea that fearful investors pull out early in a crisis, and only strong investors remain to drive the market up. That seems to be happening as the broad stock market has been soaring over the last three weeks, despite the on/off roller coaster ride of the war with Iran.

Also supporting a bull market now is the fact that we have just started new medium-term cycles in all three of our indices (DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) as well as a new longer-term 1-year cycle, and the early stages of cycles are usually bullish. Although we are still on guard for a final top in a very long-term 18-year cycle (we are in the 17th year), the bullish medium-term and 1-year cycles could drive this market considerably higher (especially if we see a parabolic "blow-off" top) before the peak of that 18-year cycle is reached. (Note that, like all cycles, 18-year cycles can expand several years beyond the 18-year mark.) Once the peak is in, however, we can anticipate a steep corrective fall in the DOW between 35% - 67%. (If a 90-year cycle is operative, that correction could be even greater.)

With the strong possibility of a "blow-off" top in progress, we may be looking to buy the next significant sub-cycle correction in the new medium-term cycles that began with the lows on March 30 at 45,057 (DOW) and 6317 (S&P 500). This week brings us to another strong reversal zone (April 21 - 30). We could see a sub-cycle peak in that time frame, followed by a modest correction (if the market stays bullish). That corrective low could be a good spot to buy, as long as it doesn't go below the start of the cycles.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have both broken out to new all-time highs, and the DOW seems poised to do that this week. If it does, it will confirm our bullish view. (If it doesn't, we will have a bearish divergence signal that would jeopardize our bullish view.) For now, we remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

Of course, the Iran war has also been affecting crude oil prices. The huge spike to $117 on April 7 (May contract chart) was the result of this conflict. Although geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is always a potential "wild card" factor that can cause volatile surges and dives in oil prices, we can still use cycle analysis and timing to predict significant turning points. (Volatile geopolitics may distort cycles, but it doesn't erase them.)

Some of crude oil's longer-term cycles are a little unclear at the moment, but there is a strong possibility that we just started a new 6-year cycle (in Dec. 2025). If that's the case, crude's trend could be very bullish now. The current medium-term cycle in crude is nearing completion, and the corrective drop from that April 7 spike could be leading to an imminent final bottom to this cycle. Ideally, that bottom would fall inside this week's general reversal zone (April 21 - 30) near $80 (it is already there). Stay tuned, as this may be a good buying spot this week. We would expect a rally from the start of a new medium-term cycle to at least test that $117 high, and most likely exceed it. If we are also starting a new 6-year cycle, prices could eventually go as high as $185! I am currently on the sidelines of crude and watching for a potential buy spot this week or next.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), April 7, 2026

4/7/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)

Over the last several weeks, the war with Iran has been driving the price of crude oil into a parabolic surge. Today, prices rose to a new monthly high and touched $117.63 (May contract chart) before closing the day at $112.95. In the evening, however, at the "11th hour" of Trump's deadline (8 PM) for Iran to make a deal with the U.S., President Trump announced that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire to negotiate a 10-point peace deal as Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. The overnight oil market responded with crude prices dropping to $95 at the time of this writing.

It is late in the medium-term cycle of crude, and we have been waiting for the final top to this cycle and the steep correction to the final bottom to follow. This may be happening now (as long as negotiations with Iran don't fall apart this week). The fact that today's high was inside a new reversal zone specifically for crude (April 6 - 14) supports the idea that it may be the final top. We will now watch for the final bottom to this cycle as a possible spot to buy.

The high prices achieved by crude over the last few weeks may have bullish implications for some of crude's longer-term cycles. If that's the case, crude prices could get quite high - possibly exceeding the all-time high of $140. I will discuss this more in a later post. For now, we remain on the sidelines of crude oil.

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Trading Blog Monday (late night), August 10, 2026

Trading Blog Sunday (late night), Aug. 9, 2026

Trading Blog Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), August 4, 2026

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), May 6, 2026

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), April 28, 2026

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), April 28, 2026

Trading Blog Sunday (evening), April 26, 2026

Trading Blog Monday (evening), April 20, 2026

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), April 7, 2026

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