The Alternative Investor

Trading Blog Wednesday (evening), October 29, 2025

10/29/2025

BRIEF COMMENT ON TODAY'S FOMC MEETING (10:30 pm EDT)

Today, the Fed cut interest rates by another 1/4 point. This was widely expected, and it did not appear to significantly impact the markets. All three broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) made new all-time highs, with the DOW closing in negative territory after touching a round-number record high at 48,000.

We just entered a new reversal zone (Oct. 29 - Nov. 5), so a top and correction down could be imminent. We like to see intermarket bearish divergence (with one, two, but not all three indices making a new high for the week) at the top of any significant cycle or sub-cycle high. We won't get that this week, but we might get it next week. Because the markets were expecting today's rate cut, we could also see a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" with these indices falling tomorrow. We shall have to wait and see how this plays out.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), October 28, 2025

10/28/2025

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)

Despite the chaos and controversy surrounding President Trump's "trade wars", the broad stock market continues to rally strongly - either supportive of Trump's tariffs or oblivious to them. All three of our indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) continue to make new all-time highs, but our medium-term cycle analysis indicates we should expect another corrective drop soon.

We're assuming new medium-term cycles began in all three indices with their lows on September 2. From there, all three indices rose into early October. The DOW made a high on Oct. 3 (47,049) and then took a 5-day sub-cycle dip before resuming its rally. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ, however, made highs on Oct. 9 and 10, respectively, but followed those highs with only a one-day correction. These latter two indices have bypassed a normal 2 - 5 day sub-cycle correction and continue to rally. Based on cycle timing, we can expect a steep sub-cycle correction in all three indices soon, which may give us a buying opportunity in this bullish market.

We enter another general reversal zone tomorrow (October 29 - November 5), and after that, the month of November is filled with back-to-back reversal zones (Nov. 6 - 17, very strong; Nov. 18 -27, moderately strong; and Nov. 25 - Dec. 3, very strong). Equity markets could be quite a roller coaster ride over the next 5 weeks, so we need to be careful with any trading. The first thing we should be watching for is a top in one of these reversal zones, followed by a sharp correction down. If the correction doesn't go too low, it could give us a good spot to buy, especially as every day in November is a potential turning point. For now, we remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

Trading Blog Monday (late night), October 27, 2025

10/26/2025

GOLD AND SILVER UPDATES (11:30 pm EDT)

There are several possible ways to label the current medium-term cycle in gold, but they all would overlap with two longer-term cycles that are due to bottom soon - anytime by the end of November. That bottom could be 10% - 20% off the high (that may have come in last Monday at $4381). We would also expect the decline to be 2 - 5 weeks in duration. Last Wednesday's low at $4005 was too soon. We also like to see significant bottoms inside strong reversal zones, and we need to wait at least another week for the next one. Because gold's trend seems to be quite bullish, we will be looking to buy the final steep drop into these longer-term cycle bottoms. For now, I am remaining on the sidelines of gold until we see a deeper correction.

Silver most likely started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $36.29 on July 31. Like gold, its trend has been very bullish. Prices reached a new all-time high on Oct. 17 ($54.46) (inside a reversal zone), and they have been falling from there.The end of the current medium-term cycle will likely coincide with the end of a longer-term (2 year) cycle which is due between now and February 2026. A sub-cycle correction is now in progress. If it goes to $42, I may consider buying for another rally, which may or may not make a new all-time high. Another scenario could see silver bouncing back up from support between $44 - $46 and THEN falling to the bottom of both the medium-term and 2 year cycle (20% or greater correction). That would also be a potential buy spot. For now, we are still on the sidelines of silver.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), October 23, 2025

10/23/2025

CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT and BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:00 pm EST)

The broad stock market continues to make new all-time highs and continues to look bullish, but it is important to note that it is VERY late in a long-term 18-year cycle (it is the 16th year), and that means the cycle could peak ANY TIME now and begin a sharp correction that could give us a loss of 35 - 67% in the DOW. Furthermore, there may be a 90-year cycle, where the bottom occurs simultaneously with the 18-year cycle. If that is the case, we could see an even greater correction (possibly 80% - 90%). With all of that said, the rise to the final top could go parabolic before falling, and certain technical parameters and shorter-term cycles seem to suggest this market has more rallying to do before any big correction. With more rate cuts expected this year and next, the stage seems set for new all-time highs.

The DOW most likely started a new medium-term cycle with its low on Sept. 2 (44,948), and it looks like its first significant sub-cycle correction came on Oct.10, which was near the center of our last reversal zone. From there, it climbed to a new all-time high this week on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both began new medium-term cycles either on Aug. 1 or Aug. 20, but their steep drops on Oct. 10 were only for one day. A normal sub-cycle correction usually lasts at least 2-3 days, so these two indices could be ready to push lower. The fact that they have not made new all-time highs this week, and the DOW has, gives us another bearish divergence signal, suggesting all three could now fall lower. As long as any correction doesn't go TOO low, we will probably want to buy any significant sub-cycle drop. For now, we remain on the sidelines of this market.

Crude oil prices soared today after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers over Moscow's war in Ukraine. This was good news, as I've been holding my long position in crude despite prices breaking below my recent stop-loss points. Prices were holding near strong support levels, and I suspected they would turn up as we were in a strong general reversal zone as well as a reversal zone specifically for crude. The bottom came on Monday at $56. This surge in price could just be a "flash in the pan", especially since the current medium-term cycle trend is now bearish. For this reason, I am going to unload my long position at tomorrow's market open. Today's closing price was close to my buy price on Aug. 27, so I should almost break even on the trade. I believe most traders got out of their longs at earlier stop loss points I suggested, but if not, now would be a good time to sell any long positions.

Trading Blog Sunday (late night), October 12, 2025

10/12/2025

MARKETS UPDATE (11:00 pm EDT)

On Friday, crude oil broke and closed below my new stop loss - i.e. the strong support at $60 (Nov. contract chart) - but it did hold above the next support line around $58. While some traders may have been stopped out with my earlier suggested stop loss at $62, others may have bailed out on Friday. These traders can remain out, but because we have now moved inside two strong reversal zones (a general reversal zone from Oct. 8 - 17 and a reversal zone for crude Oct. 10 -21), there is a strong chance a significant bottom is imminent to be followed by a rally. I am therefore going to maintain my long position for now. The medium and longer-term cycles in crude are a little ambiguous right now, so I will refrain from that analysis until they become more clearly defined.

Last week, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both made new all-time highs, but the DOW did not, and this set up a strong bearish divergence signal between these indices. Not surprisingly, all three plummeted on Friday - something we have been expecting for the last several weeks. The cycle labeling of these broad stock market indices is also a bit unclear at the moment, but the trend is definitely bullish (for now). The DOW has been correcting down for five trading days, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ just started their correction on Friday. As we are in a strong reversal zone next week, we may see a significant bottom form in all three indices, creating a possible buying opportunity. I am on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.

Gold and silver prices have taken off, with silver going parabolic and finally breaking its all-time high from 2011. This necessitates a reanalysis of both metals' medium-term and long-term cycles. While this is clearly bullish for both metals, it is too late to chase the current rally. We need to wait for a significant correction before considering any long positions. Next week's reversal zone could provide us with a turning point for a downward correction. We are currently on the sidelines of both metals.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), October 2, 2025

10/2/2025

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (10:30 pm EDT)

Crude oil prices broke and closed below our stop loss point ($62 - Nov. contract chart) today. Any traders who sold their long positions should stay out for now; however, I will remain long with a new stop-loss based on a close below the very strong support at $60. We move into another strong reversal zone for all markets next week (October 8 -17) and especially for crude (Oct. 10 - 21). If support at $60 holds into that time frame, it could be the launching pad for a strong rally and another chance to buy.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), September 16, 2025

9/16/2025

MARKETS UPDATE (10:30 pm EDT)

Despite all the political and economic turmoil swirling around us now, the broad stock market remains very bullish. It is late in some longer-term cycles in this market, which means a sharp correction could start at any time; however, the shorter-term picture looks quite bullish. This suggests some strong rallying - possibly even a parabolic "blow-off" - before any major correction gets underway. We need to be careful and especially nimble with any trades made now.

There are several possible labelings for the medium-term cycles in our major indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). It is possible the DOW started a new medium-term cycle with its low of 44,948 on Sept. 2. If that's the case, it could be quite bullish now. Tomorrow's FOMC meeting will almost certainly conclude with an announcement of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and that will likely trigger cheering (and market rallying) on Wall Street, which supports this idea of a new cycle. But the current cycle could also be an older one ready to take its final correction down.

Unlike the DOW, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are both likely older cycles ready for their final downward correction. This week, they are both making new all-time highs without the DOW, and that gives us a new case of intermarket bearish divergence. We will have to see how the Fed's rhetoric tomorrow afternoon affects the market. A strong rally could negate this bearish divergence signal. Even if the DOW has started a new medium-term cycle, we would probably want to wait for the first significant sub-cycle correction before considering a long position. If these indices are older cycles, then we will soon get even better buying opportunities with deeper corrective lows. For now, we remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

Like the broad stock market, gold is looking short-term bullish. Nevertheless, we are also expecting a longer-term steep correction of $400 - $700 by the end of the year. That means we need to be flexible and nimble with any long positions taken.

Gold could have begun a new medium-term cycle with its low on Aug. 20 at $3311. Prices have already risen steeply from there, suggesting a bullish new cycle. But the current medium-term cycle may instead be an older one ready to take its final correction down. Even if this is an older cycle, it still looks very bullish and could exhibit a parabolic surge before its final fall. If it's a new (Aug, 20) cycle, it may take a modest sub-cycle correction before surging higher. A quick drop to support in the $3600 area would suggest this is happening. In terms of trading, we will now look for a rally to resistance just under $4000. That may be a good point to sell short for a $400 - $700 correction. We are still on the sidelines of gold.

Silver prices have already turned parabolic and seem to be headed up to test the all-time high around $48 from way back in 2011. The current medium-term cycle in silver started on July 31 ($36.29), so the cycle is relatively young, and it has been very bullish. What we want to do now is wait for a significant sub-cycle corrective dip to buy for more rallying that could get up to $50. A good target for that dip would be around $40. In the meantime, we are still on the sidelines of silver.

Crude oil prices have been reluctant to rally since we entered a long position on Aug. 27. We have been assuming a new medium-term cycle began on Aug. 13 at $61.29 (Oct. contract chart). A possible double-bottom on Sept. 5 ($61.45) may be supporting that idea, and today prices broke and closed above the 15-day and 45-day moving averages (a bullish sign). Nevertheless, it's still possible that crude's medium-term cycle is an older one that is ready to move lower to its final bottom soon ($55 or lower). I am going to hold my long position in crude for now with a stop-loss based on a close below $61. There is currently a strong support line around $62.

Trading Blog Friday, September 5, 2025

9/5/2025

MARKETS UPDATE (1:30 pm EDT)

After peaking on Sept. 2 at $66.03 (Oct. contract chart), crude oil prices have been falling. I may have been premature in thinking a new medium-term cycle started on Aug. 13. We may be seeing the final bottom to the older medium-term cycle (that began on April 9 at $54) forming now (this week or next) inside our current reversal zone for crude (Sept. 2 - 11). There is currently support around $62 and then strong support at $60. My current long position (entered on Aug. 27) is now slightly in the red, but I am going to hold it as long as prices continue to close above $60. Until that $60 line is breached, the trend in crude still looks bullish.

The broad stock market continues to defy the odds and push higher, even though it is now VERY late in the current medium-term cycle, and a final top is now overdue. Today, ALL THREE indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are making new all-time highs, and this negates the strong bearish divergence signals we have been seeing between these indices over the past few weeks. We are now in the center of a new reversal zone (Sept. 1 -11), so the final top could be forming now in this unusually bullish market. I am still waiting for a significant correction down to the final bottom of these medium-term cycles before considering any long position.

In my Aug. 24 blog on gold, I stated:

"There is a possibility that gold started a new medium-term cycle with its low on July 30 ($3270). If so, prices could be bullish now and poised to challenge April's all-time high at $3495."

It looks like this scenario is playing out as gold broke out to new all-time highs this week. In this case, gold is very bullish now and could get as high as $3800. I am going to watch for the first significant sub-cycle correction in this new medium-term cycle for a possible spot to buy. It could be imminent because prices are rising steeply into this week's reversal zone, suggesting a top could form this week (or next).

It looks like silver also started a new medium-term cycle on July 31, and if so, it too is due for a significant sub-cycle correction soon. We will watch for this and a potential spot to buy.
I am currently on the sidelines of both gold and silver.

Trading Blog Wednesday, August 27, 2025

8/27/2025

CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT and UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (3:00 pm EDT)

The broad stock market continues to look very bullish. Today, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high without the DOW or NASDAQ, and this gives us another instance of bearish divergence between the indices. This week's strong general reversal zone ends Friday, and it is getting very late in the medium-term cycles of all three indices. It is therefore highly likely we will see a final top this week and the start of a 2 - 5 week corrective drop to the final cycle bottoms. Should this market continue to rally past Friday, there is another (weaker) reversal zone starting next week (Sept. 2 - 11) that might also correlate with a final top to the medium-term cycles. Either way, we are going to wait for the final bottoms of these cycles as a possible place to buy (as long as the correction doesn't go too deep and switch the trend from bullish to bearish). For now, I am still on the sidelines of this market.

It looks very much like crude oil started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $60.59 (Sept. contract chart) on August 13. A sharp rally from there reached a peak on Monday at $63.23 (in the center of our reversal zone), and prices backed down a bit on Tuesday and today. This looks like a good spot to buy as the beginning of a new cycle is usually bullish. I am going to enter a long position in crude today with an initial stop loss based on a close below $60.50.

Trading Blog Sunday (late night), August 24, 2025

8/24/2025

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET and PRECIOUS METALS (11:30 pm EDT)

It is now very late in the medium-term cycles of the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. The trend of these cycles has been bullish, but we should now be looking for a final high (top) and a sharp 2-5 week correction to the final cycle bottoms. On Friday, the DOW soared up to make a new all-time high at 45,757. The S&P 500, and especially the NASDAQ, both fell short of an all-time high, and that gives us another intermarket bearish divergence signal. Not only that, it is happening near the center of another strong general reversal zone (Aug. 20 - 29). This means a turn down could be imminent. We will probably want to buy the final corrective bottom to these cycles, but that may end up being in September, assuming a 2-5 week fall from the final tops (and also assuming the fall is not TOO steep). We are still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

There is a possibility that gold started a new medium-term cycle with its low on July 30 ($3270). If so, prices could be bullish now and poised to challenge April's all-time high at $3495. But it's more likely gold is near the end of an older (medium-term) cycle and will soon make a sharp correction down to its final bottom. The fact that prices are rallying into the center of our current general reversal zone supports this idea of an imminent sharp reversal down. For now, we will look for a correction down to the $3200 level and a possible spot to buy. We are on the sidelines of gold.

As with gold, the end of July may have seen the start of a new medium-term cycle in silver with the low of $36.28 on July 31. If that's the case, we could soon see the July 23 high of $39.52 exceeded. The alternative view could see an imminent reversal back down before breaking that high, and a final correction down to the bottom of an older medium-term cycle - close to the $35 area. This could turn out to be a good buy spot. For now, we are still on the sidelines of silver.

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