GOLD TRADE ALERT and UPDATE ON CRUDE OIL (3:00 pm EDT)
Gold prices are soaring today to a new all-time high ($2466), but silver, while rallying, is not even exceeding last week's high. This gives us a strong bearish divergence signal, and it's happening near the end of our current strong general reversal zone (July 9 - 18). We are also in the time frame for a significant sub-cycle peak. A correction down seems imminent, so I am going to take profits and sell my long position in gold today. If the correction down is modest, we may buy again, as this market could rally some more, but there's also a chance we are near the peak of a longer-term cycle that's about to take a longer-term correction. Thus, it's a good time to step aside (for now). I am still on the sidelines of silver.
It looks like I bought crude oil a little too early last week as prices are edging below the isolated low from last Wednesday ($80.81 - Aug. contract chart). But we are still in our reversal zone (it ends Thursday), and a sub-cycle corrective bottom is due. Prices today are between the 15-day and 45-day moving averages, so a bottom could be forming here. I am am still holding my long position in crude. There should be strong support around $80.
Gold prices are soaring today to a new all-time high ($2466), but silver, while rallying, is not even exceeding last week's high. This gives us a strong bearish divergence signal, and it's happening near the end of our current strong general reversal zone (July 9 - 18). We are also in the time frame for a significant sub-cycle peak. A correction down seems imminent, so I am going to take profits and sell my long position in gold today. If the correction down is modest, we may buy again, as this market could rally some more, but there's also a chance we are near the peak of a longer-term cycle that's about to take a longer-term correction. Thus, it's a good time to step aside (for now). I am still on the sidelines of silver.
It looks like I bought crude oil a little too early last week as prices are edging below the isolated low from last Wednesday ($80.81 - Aug. contract chart). But we are still in our reversal zone (it ends Thursday), and a sub-cycle corrective bottom is due. Prices today are between the 15-day and 45-day moving averages, so a bottom could be forming here. I am am still holding my long position in crude. There should be strong support around $80.
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