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Trading Blog Thursday (late night), June 30, 2016

6/30/2016

MARKETS UPDATE (11:00 pm EDT)

The rebound from the "Brexit crash" has been quite strong. This rally could still be a "dead cat bounce", but it needs to start turning down now (i.e. over the next several trading days) for the bearish view to be valid as the DOW and S&P 500 are approaching their recent cycle highs. If they break above those highs it would suggest that they are starting new medium-term cycles from Monday's "crash" low. It would be better in terms of timing and cycle patterns for the final cycle lows to go lower and bottom sometime in July (ideally next week), but we don't always get ideal technical patterns (especially in volatile markets as we have now), and it is possible that Monday's lows represent an early cycle bottom and the start of a new medium-term cycle in the broad stock market. If so, this market is turning bullish. Arguing against this is the fact that the current rally is now at the dead center of a very strong reversal zone, and all three major market indices (DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) are approaching strong resistance levels in their charts. Also, there was no intermarket bullish divergence with Monday's bottoms (all three indices made new lows). The S&P 500 is now just below our entry point from June 8th for our short position so any traders wishing to break even on this trade could cover that position now. I'm going to be a bit stubborn, however, and hold my short position with a stop loss on a break and close above 2,130 (a tad above the yearly high). This is just a little above our entry level (around 2,120) and would create very little loss if triggered. Frankly, I am a bit annoyed that the strong rebound has taken away our profit on this trade and I am reluctant to bail out too early, especially considering the technical factors mentioned above. Holding my short position in the broad stock market with a stop loss based on the S&P 500 breaking and closing above 2,130.

Crude oil may also be starting a new medium-term cycle from it's Monday low of $45.83 (August contract chart), but (as with the broad stock market) maybe not. It would fit cycle and timing patterns better if crude fell lower and closer to our target price price range of $40 - $45, ideally next week. Since we are still on the sidelines of this market, we will wait to see if crude's price moves lower into next week and gives us a good spot to buy. On the sidelines of crude oil for now.

As I've been suggesting in recent blogs, gold and silver's medium-term (and maybe long-term) cycles seem to be turning very bullish. This means we should be looking for opportunities to buy. Right at the moment, though, gold and silver are rising into a very strong reversal zone so it is likely that some sort of correction is imminent. This is especially true for silver because silver's medium-term cycle has not bottomed yet (it is due soon) so it's correction may be steep. (Gold's cycle probably bottomed - and a new one started- on May 31.) Silver prices soared today and closed above $19 which is a new weekly (and yearly) high. Gold prices remained below last week's highs so we have a strong case of intermarket bearish divergence in a reversal zone. I may look to enter a short position in silver as soon as tomorrow or early next week. This would be a short-term trade. Longer-term traders may want to just wait for silver's cycle bottom as well as some sort of correction in gold as an opportunity to buy both metals. On the sidelines of both gold and silver for now.

Trading Blog Tuesday, June 28, 2016

6/28/2016

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (4:15 pm EDT)

Equity markets had a strong rally today which they were entitled to after the shock and fallout from last week's Brexit vote. The rally so far, however, is looking like a "dead cat bounce" (i.e. a short-term relief rally) as the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have risen up to and are now pushing against strong resistance near the bottom of last Friday's "crash". The longer-term bullish arguments for the broad stock market I made in yesterday's blog still apply, but cycle and timing factors point to a lower bottom either late this week or sometime next week. The targets for the bottoms in these indices could be as low as 16,500 in the DOW, 1,950 in the S&P 500, and 4,400 in the NASDAQ.
Once the cycle bottoms are in we will be looking to go long, but for now I am still holding a short position in this market as I don't think the correction is over just yet. (I may change my mind if this current rally gains some legs.) Some traders may wish to take profits now as we have done well with this short position that was entered on June 8 and is down about 4%, though I think it can drop further. Still holding my short position in the broad stock market.

Trading Blog Monday (early AM), June 27, 2016

6/26/2016

MARKETS UPDATE (4:45 pm EDT)

The final tallying of "Brexit" votes last Thursday night which favored the U.K. leaving the European Union took many investors by surprise on Friday morning (myself included). This was because the polls on Thursday had favored the "Bremain" voters or those that wished to remain in the EU, and equities had rallied in anticipation of that result. Stock markets don't like surprises, and this one triggered a massive sell-off of over 600 points in the DOW (about 3.4%) and 76 points in the S&P 500 (3.6%). I had posted a trade alert at 6:30 pm EDT Thursday to cover our short position in the broad stock market (based on the polls favoring the "Bremain") but then canceled this and reentered my short position at 1:45 am EDT on Friday when it was announced that the Brexit voters had won. Even if traders did not get my second alert and placed an order to cover a short position, they likely profited as the DOW plummeted nearly 500 points in the first five minutes of trading.

The big question now is whether or not the panic and market plunge will continue into this week. Could this be the start of a market crash? It is possible. Many market analysts currently view the broad stock market as a bubble looking for a pin. The Brexit vote has been quite a sharp pin. There are other factors to weigh here, however, before we push the panic button. Foremost is the fact that we are approaching a presidential election in the U.S. There are many people in positions of power who would not want the market to crash before the election as this would likely favor any candidate perceived as opposing the "status quo" in Washington. (Currently that would be Donald Trump). The Federal Reserve may try and stave off a crash by not raising interest rates for the rest of the year, and there was even speculation by financial analysts last week that the Fed could bring in another round of bond buying or QE to keep markets buoyant.

A second factor that argues against a crash now is the fact that the Brexit vote creates more instability for an already weak European economy. Global investors may now see U.S. equity markets as a relatively safe haven for investing. (Our economy may not be in great shape, but it is doing better than many crumbling European and Asian economies).

Lastly, we need to keep in mind that Friday's plunge was at least in part due to the surprise of the Brexit vote, and it could be a temporary knee-jerk reaction (albeit a big one). For this reason, and the others stated above, we will watch carefully for a bottom to form, especially late this week and into the first week of July as this is another strong reversal zone for the broad stock market. If markets don't plunge too far and they start to stabilize, we may have a good opportunity to go long after this substantial correction. Holding my short position in the broad stock market for now.

Unfortunately I did not reinstate my short position in crude oil before markets opened Friday and so missed out on most of crude's plunge that day. Crude prices could now be making a double bottom to the low of $46.40 on June 17 (August contract chart) or they could make a new low into our original target range of $40 - $45 this week or next. We will watch for a bottom now as the current medium-term cycle is due to end and a new one should start soon. If prices can stay above $38, we will probably look to go long in crude soon as the start of a new cycle is always at least short-term bullish. Currently out of crude oil.

In last Thursday's blog on gold and silver I wrote:

"A vote to leave the EU would almost certainly weaken the euro currency and propel the U.S. dollar higher. Under normal circumstances this would put downward pressure on the precious metals, but if investors fear a collapse in global equity markets they may run to gold and silver as a safe haven. In this situation we could see gold and the dollar rise at the same time."

This seems to be happening. After the Brexit announcement the euro plummeted, the dollar rallied, and both gold and silver surged up with the dollar. Both metals made new yearly highs last week, and their charts are looking quite bullish. Gold started a new medium-term cycle on May 29, but silver is nearing the end of an older cycle and should be taking a correction to its final cycle bottom soon. The reversal zone coming up late next week and the following week (first week of July) could be the turning point for a downturn if silver rallies into it. We may look for a spot to sell silver short if that set-up happens, but once silver's cycle bottoms, we will most likely be looking to go long in both silver and gold as the longer-term trend for the precious metals seems to be turning bullish. Out of both gold and silver for now.

Trading Blog Friday (early AM), June 24, 2016

6/24/2016

(2ND) IMPORTANT BREXIT UPDATE and BROAD STOCK MARKET TRADE ALERT (1:45 am EDT)

Apparently the British polls earlier today were misleading in favoring the "Bremain" voters. The final voting count now shows that the "Brexit" voters have won 52% to 48%. So it's official now - the U.K. will be leaving the European Union. This decision is already causing volatility in many financial markets around the world, especially as it is coming as somewhat of a surprise due to yesterday's polls that pointed to Britain remaining in the EU.

Needless to say, this changes our trading strategy for equities as there is now a good chance the broad stock market will fall tomorrow, and we could be back on track for a cycle bottom late next week or in the first week of July. For this reason I am going to cancel the sell (cover) order I suggested in my previous blog and reinstate my short position in the broad stock market. Traders who are nervous about the volatility that could ensue tomorrow from this surprise Brexit vote may still want to cover their short position, but we will watch carefully any rally and be ready to cover if it goes too far. Holding my short position in the broad stock market.

We will remain out of gold, silver and crude oil for now as it is not clear how the Brexit vote will affect these commodities.

Trading Blog Thursday, June 23, 2016

6/23/2016

IMPORTANT BREXIT UPDATE and BROAD STOCK MARKET & CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT (6:30 pm EDT)

It appears that the polls on the Brexit vote are now leaning in favor of the U.K. staying in the European Union, and equity markets today reflected this sentiment by rallying strongly. The NASDAQ made a new weekly high today so the intermarket bearish divergence signal I mentioned in yesterday's blog is now negated. We shorted the broad stock market on June 8, and after falling for most of last week, it is now back up to our entry point. Considering the likelihood of a "remain in the EU" vote, I am going to cover my short position in the broad stock market (i.e. place a sell order now for tomorrow's market open) with little or no loss (depending on how the market opens tomorrow). Of course, the polls may be wrong, and if the "Brexit" passes we could see equity markets plummet. We will deal with that situation if it arises, but for now I think it is safer to be on the sidelines until this Brexit storm passes. Out of the broad stock market as of tomorrow morning.

In yesterday's blog I suggested a stop loss for our short position in crude oil "somewhere above $49". Today crude prices closed just above $50. A "Bremain" (remain in the EU) vote could also propel crude prices higher so if any trader is still holding a short position in crude, it would be prudent to cover that position now. If the June 17 low of $46.40 (August contract chart) was the bottom of the recent medium-term cycle (and start of a new one), this market could turn bullish, and we may start looking for a point to go long in crude. A break above the recent high of $52.28 would make that scenario more likely. Out of crude oil for now.

It is hard to say how gold and silver will react to the U.K.'s Brexit voting. A vote to leave the EU would almost certainly weaken the euro currency and propel the U.S. dollar higher. Under normal circumstances this would put downward pressure on the precious metals, but if investors fear a collapse in global equity markets they may run to gold and silver as a safe haven. In this situation we could see gold and the dollar rise at the same time. If Britain stays in the EU, the euro could rally (it rose sharply today on news of the new poll figures favoring a "Bremain") and push the dollar down, but this could be just a short-term "relief" reaction. The U.S. Dollar Index has been falling, but it is back to a very strong support level around 92 -93 so it could turn back up here. (A clear break below 92, however, would be a serious bearish development for the dollar). We are now entering another reversal zone for gold and silver (it is strongest next Tuesday/Wednesday), and there is good chance these precious metals will make a significant reversal over the next several days. Both metals have been falling (especially gold) so that reversal should be to the upside. I am tempted to go long in gold now, but the Brexit voting may create some wild short-term price swings in both directions so I am going to remain on the sidelines for now. We will watch carefully how prices move as we approach the center (next Tuesday/Wednesday) of this current reversal zone. On the sidelines of gold and silver.

Trading Blog Wednesday, June 22, 2016

6/22/2016

MARKETS UPDATE (6:00 pm EDT)

The broad stock market has been quiet this week (so far) as it waits for the U.K.'s "Brexit" vote on Thursday. Polls remain equally divided between those favoring a British exit from the EU and those who do not. Even though the vote is on Thursday, we will not know the results until early in the morning on Friday (Eastern U.S. time).

Right now there are two ways to interpret the cycle patterns in both the DOW and S&P 500, and this week's Brexit vote will likely resolve this ambiguity. It is possible that both indices started new medium-term cycles with their lows on May 19, and if so, these markets could be bullish and ready to rally strongly off of last Thursday's dip. If Britain votes to remain in the EU, this could give a strong lift to equities and would support this idea of a new cycle. A vote to leave the EU, however, could send markets tumbling back down and would support our original interpretation of these cycles bottoming in the last week of June/early July. Note that the DOW and S&P 500 have both exceeded their highs from last week, but the NASDAQ has not (yet). This could be a case of intermarket bearish divergence and suggests a market turndown (until the NASDAQ exceeds 4,895). Still holding my short position in the broad stock market.

Gold and silver prices dropped sharply yesterday. Today gold has been stable at a support level around $1,260.
If Britain remains in the EU, we could see precious metal prices start to rally again from this support (or perhaps a lower point). If the "Brexit" passes, however, the U.S. dollar could surge and we could see these metal prices fall further. We need to keep in mind now that the overall medium-term to long-term trend of gold and silver seems to be turning bullish. Unless gold prices start to break below $1,200, we should be looking to buy any corrections in both metals. While gold probably started a new medium-term cycle on May 29, silver seems to be still completing an older cycle so if silver can make a new weekly high over the next few days or next week, we may have an opportunity to sell it short for a short-term but possibly steep correction into its medium-term cycle bottom. Still on the sidelines of both metals.

Crude oil prices were down a bit today, but they are still close to our entry price (around $49) for our short position.
As I mentioned in Monday's blog, it is possible that last week's low of $45.83 was the medium-term cycle bottom and the start of a new cycle, and if it was, this market could now be bullish and ready to rally some more. Technically, it would be a better fit in terms of timing and cycle structure for a cycle bottom to happen late next week or the first week of July within our target area of $40 - $45, but markets don't always give us "ideal" patterns. Nevertheless, that scenario is still a possibility. The Brexit vote may determine which scenario is correct and could push prices sharply one way or the other. Traders holding a short position in crude may now want to set an automatic tight stop loss somewhere above $49 (our break even point) according to their own tolerance for a loss should the vote trigger a sudden surge in prices. Holding my short position in crude with a tight stop loss.

Trading Blog Monday, June 20, 2016

6/20/2016

MARKETS UPDATE (6:45 pm EDT)

I apologize to readers for not posting an update since last Wednesday, but I have been experiencing delays in my market data sources while traveling this week-end. This should be remedied by tomorrow and I should be back on track with my chart analysis by then.

A major event since my last blog posting has been the horrific murder of popular British politician Jo Cox, a member of the Labour Party and a strong opponent of Britain leaving the European Union. Following her death, polls have been showing decreased support for a "Brexit" vote, presumably in sympathetic response to her tragic murder. Previous polls had shown Brexit supporters leading, but current support seems equally divided between those wanting the U.K. to remain in the EU and those that prefer an exit.

The broad stock market had been falling, but it is turning back up now, most likely in response to this recent surge of opposition to a Brexit. It is hard to say what the outcome of the Brexit vote will be this Thursday, but as the emotional impact of this tragic killing starts to subside, we could see support for a U.K. exit from the EU reassert itself and possibly see the return of a nervous selloff in equities. I am going to hold my short position in the broad stock market for now, but we will watch this situation carefully this week. If it looks like a Brexit won't pass and this equity rally gains strength, we may have to cover our short position.

If Britain does leave the EU, it would likely severely weaken the euro currency, and since the U.S. Dollar Index is heavily weighted in euros (57.6%), the greenback would likely surge, and a dollar surge could depress gold and silver prices. Last Thursday (the day of the Jo Cox murder) gold prices soared to $1,318 intraday but then fell and closed the day back under $1,300 at $1,281. The strong price surge suggests a "breakout", but the low close is saying that surge could be a "fake-out". Today gold remains below $1,300 and it is still not clear what this market wants to do, and it may remain unclear until after the Brexit vote this Thursday. It looks like gold started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $1,201 on May 31 so that means this market could be bullish; however, there are other technical signals that suggest a more bearish picture, including the COT (Commitment of Traders) charts which are still quite bearish for both gold and silver. Needless to say, based on all of these conflicting factors and the potential volatility that could result from the Brexit vote this week, it is best to remain on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.

Last Wednesday was the center of a reversal zone for crude oil, and prices have turned up sharply. The question is whether or not last week's low was the final bottom and end of a medium-term cycle. It did not reach our target for the bottom ($40 - $45 or lower), and it would fit the cycle analysis better for the low to come at the end of June/early July. I am going to hold my short position in crude oil for now, but, as with the broad stock market, if this current rally gains legs, we may have to cover this position. If Britain votes to leave the EU it could send crude prices back down again.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), June 15, 2016

6/15/2016

MARKETS UPDATE (11:15 pm EDT)

To no one's great surprise, the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates this month. In a press conference after the FOMC released its statement at 2 PM in the afternoon, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen mentioned "Brexit" concerns as part of the reason for a hike delay. The recent dismal jobs report from the U.S. Department of Labor most likely also weighed heavily on the minds of the FOMC during this week's meeting. The Fed's statement as well as Yellen's comments seemed only tentatively committed to two more rate hikes this year and left room for speculation that there may only be one. Yellen suggested that interest rates may continue to be depressed by ”factors that are not going to be rapidly disappearing, but will be part of the new normal."

Equity markets started to rally in the morning but fell steeply after the release of the Fed's policy statement and Ms. Yellen's press conference. It seems that Yellen's and the Fed's dovish tone was not enough to calm the fears of a nervous stock market anxiously awaiting the Brexit vote next Thursday. The DOW and S&P 500 both closed the day with small losses. Of course, we need to wait and see if the broad stock market will continue to fall. On Tuesday the S&P 500 fell close to 2,060 which is near the upper range for a correction if this market is going to stay bullish. We could still see equity markets bounce here, but we won't get too concerned unless we see these indices making new weekly highs, especially if that happens after next Monday. Our preferred scenario is to have the correction continue down into the end of the month. Holding my short position in the broad stock market for now.

The Fed's dovish tone was not appreciated by the U.S. Dollar Index which fell steeply shortly after 2 PM. This gave a boost to an already bullish precious metals market and gold prices soared to the $1,300 mark (silver got to $17.77). Technically, today was the last day of the reversal zone for gold and silver so if prices don't reverse here and gold starts closing above $1,303, we could see gold "breakout" and continue a rally into the end of the month. Let's wait and see if the "Fed effect" on this market will last longer than a day or two. If it doesn't, we could see a reversal and a downward correction in prices. Still on the sidelines of gold and silver.

Crude oil prices continue to fall and seem to be on track to make a medium-term cycle bottom sometime in late June or early July. Our target is still the $40 - $45 range or lower. As with the broad stock market, we could see a bounce in prices this week, but I don't expect any rally to last long or get very far before turning down again. Holding my short position in crude oil.

Trading Blog Tuesday (early AM), June 14, 2016

6/14/2016

MARKETS UPDATE (1:30 pm EDT)

There are two upcoming events that we need to pay close attention to as they could have a strong impact on all markets over the next two weeks. This Wednesday the Federal Reserve will release its financial policy statement following a two day meeting. Many analysts had been expecting the Fed to announce another interest rate hike in June until the dismal jobs report came out June 3rd which altered that view and now fuels speculation that the Fed may postpone that hike. The second event to watch carefully is Britain's "Brexit" vote on June 23 which will determine whether or not the U.K. will leave the European Union. Current polls are suggesting that momentum is favoring the exit. The possibility of Britain leaving the EU is already rattling global financial markets (which hate geopolitical instability), and if it comes to pass we might see equity markets tumble.

We are now at the center of a reversal zone for precious metals and both gold and silver are rising into it strongly, in fact, very strongly. I repeat from my blog last week:

"If gold continues to rally into the end of this week or early next week and stays under $1,290, we may have a good spot to sell short for a final correction into the end of the month. There is a possibility, however, that gold ...could be very bullish now and any rally... (could) ... exceed $1,300. Silver's situation is similar to gold's and silver may also rally now, but if that rally stalls later this week or early next week, prices could fall again into a corrective low."

These rallies haven't stalled yet. In fact, they seem to be picking up momentum. Directional momentum in both silver and gold turned from mixed bullish and bearish to 100% bullish today. I already mentioned last week that the gold and silver mining company stock indices HUI and XAU also recently turned 100% bullish. This could be heralding a new bull market in these metals. Nevertheless, we are in a reversal zone so a top followed by some sort of correction is possible over the next several days (the reversal zone technically ends on Wednesday). The Fed's policy statement on Wednesday may be a turning point for this market (and others). If there is no rate hike, the U.S. dollar could fall and encourage more rallying in gold and silver, but a hike announcement would likely strengthen the dollar and push precious metal prices back down. Today gold prices got to $1,287 before backing down and closing the day at $1,280. Let's see how prices move into Wednesday. If gold can break and close above $1,303, that favors the bullish view of the market, and our strategy would then be to buy any short-term corrections. If prices stay under $1,300, however, it's still possible we could see a sharp correction into the end of the month before any significant rally begins. Stay tuned this week for more updates. Still on the sidelines of both gold and silver.

Equity markets fell again today (which was good for our short position), and it looks like last Thursday's highs in both the DOW and S&P 500 were cycle tops. We could now see this correction continue into the end of the month. I am concerned, however, about Wednesday's Fed meeting. The postponement of a rate hike could lift the markets and possibly cut short any correction now in progress. The announcement of a rate hike, however, could send the broad stock market considerably lower. We will have to wait and see how this plays out. Reactions to the Fed are often brief and short-lived (but not always). Depending on the cycle structure that is unfolding (not clear at the moment), we could see the S&P 500 get down to the 1,950 area, but if the market is bullish the correction may only reach the 2,060 area. Next week's "Brexit" vote is weighing heavily on the markets so let's continue to hold our short position for now with the expectation of a cycle bottom in late June/early July. Holding my short position in the broad stock market with a cautious eye on Wednesday's Fed meeting.

Crude oil prices fell steeply last Friday and Sunday and are now settling around $48. It looks like the correction we've been waiting for is happening now. Our target for this correction is the $40 - $45 area, but prices could go lower. Ideally, we would like to see at least a two week correction here, but the bottom may come sooner, especially as this week is another reversal zone for crude (with the Fed's statement thrown in to boot). If the broad stock market tumbles lower this week, crude could go along with it. Holding on to my short position in crude oil for now.

Trading Blog Thursday, June 9, 2016

6/9/2016

MARKETS UPDATE (4:22 pm EDT)

The DOW seems to be flirting with the 18,000 level this week. It rose above there on Tuesday but then closed below. It closed above 18,000 yesterday, but it opened below today, dropped to 17,920 by noon, crawled back up and attempted another breakthrough but failed and closed the day at 17,985 with a 20 point loss. This market obviously has buoyant energy, but both the DOW and S&P 500 are pushing against strong resistance levels. We are also in a reversal zone, and the cycle structures tell us that some sort of correction is due soon. Today is technically the last day of the current reversal zone, and the next one is at the end of the month so ideally the broad stock market would turn down now and make a corrective bottom (possibly a modest one) in late June or early July. The Fed (and others), however, are most likely working hard to keep markets bullish into the upcoming presidential election, and we may not get an "ideal" correction. We still have a strong intermarket bearish divergence signal as long as the DOW remains below 18,167, and that is the stop loss for our current short position in this market. Holding my short position in the broad stock market for now.

In Monday's blog on gold and silver I wrote:

" If gold continues to rally into the end of this week or early next week and stays under $1,290, we may have a good spot to sell short for a final correction into the end of the month. There is a possibility, however, that gold ...could be very bullish now and any rally... (could) ... exceed $1,300. Silver's situation is similar to gold's and silver may also rally now, but if that rally stalls later this week or early next week, prices could fall again into a corrective low."

Gold and silver are indeed rallying this week, and today's spot price in gold got up to $1,270. Monday next week is the center point of a reversal zone specifically related to precious metals, and there are other technical signals that point to a sharp decline early next week. If gold can stay under $1,300 over the next few trading days, we may have a good opportunity to sell short both gold and silver. One cautionary note here is that the gold and silver mining company indices HUI and XAU recently turned 100% bullish. As I've mentioned before on this site, gold and silver mining company stocks are often a bellwether for the price of the metals themselves. This is suggesting that the overall trend of these metals is shifting to bullish; however, we could still see a cycle correction (possibly a modest one) before a strong rally gets underway. Stay tuned for more updates. Currently on the sidelines of gold and silver.

In Monday's blog on crude oil I wrote:

"Next week is another reversal zone specifically for crude so it's possible prices could make a double top to last week's high or even make a new high into that time. We will try and maintain a stop loss for our current short position in crude around $51, but I may tolerate a slightly higher price, especially as we approach next week's reversal zone."

Crude prices are making new highs as we approach next week's reversal zone. Today crude touched $51.67 before falling and closing at $50.55 (July contract chart) so we are still below $51. I am going to try and hold my short position into next week as timing and cycle factors are pointing to an imminent reversal, and we are in the target range for a top. Holding my short position in crude.

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