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Trading Blog Monday, May 30, 2022 (Memorial Day)

5/30/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (9:00 pm EDST)

With the typical optimism that we usually find heading into holiday week-ends, the broad stock market mustered up a strong rally last Wednesday - Friday into this Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. All three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) broke to new weekly highs on Friday. This is supporting the idea that at least the DOW and S&P 500 may have started new medium-term cycles from their deep lows on May 20. But it still looks like the NASDAQ's medium-term cycle is older and began with it's March 14 low of 12,555. If this is correct, the NASDAQ's trend is bearish because it is now well below that starting point and it should be headed lower to the cycle's final bottom due 4-12 weeks from now. Despite its current sub-cycle rally, the NASDAQ should not make a new all-time high before turning down again to fall to that final bottom. In contrast, if the DOW and S&P 500 are starting new cycles as stated above, then they are both bullish and could challenge or exceed their all-time highs. If one or both of these indices make new all-time highs without the NASDAQ, we would have a very strong case of intermarket bearish divergence and that would more than likely be the FINAL top in this market's long-term cycle that we will want to sell short.

We note, however, that this current equity rally is now at the center of our current strong reversal zone (May 26 - June 3), so some sort of top may be imminent in all three indices by the end of this week. It is very unlikely any of these indices will get near their all-time highs in only 4 days (unless we see a parabolic "blow-off"). If the current rally is strong, it may bypass this reversal and just "break out" to higher levels after Friday. We will have to watch this carefully. Any top that forms in the NASDAQ may be an opportunity to sell short. We are on the sidelines of this market for now.

Not only are we at the center of a general reversal zone for all markets, but we have just entered a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (May 27 - June 6). Both metals have been rallying weakly. If gold can rally close to $1900 by the end of the week (or maybe into next Monday), it seems likely it will form a top that could be a good shorting opportunity. Ditto for silver if it can get to $24. It still looks like both metals have turned bearish, but if we get a really strong rally this week, both gold and silver could turn bullish again. We will remain on the sidelines as we wait to see how high prices can go this week.

A final medium-term cycle low is now due in the U.S. Dollar Index. Today the dollar made a new low at 101.29. We are now in the center of our general reversal zone which ends this Friday, so the final bottom to this cycle could be any day now. It will likely coincide with a top in the precious metals, so we will watch this carefully this week.

As I've mentioned in previous blogs, once this current medium-term cycle bottoms, the next rally will be important. If it can exceed the 105 high of May 13, then the dollar could turn very bullish. This might happen if the broad stock market starts to tank and investors flee equity markets for safety in the U.S. dollar (as they did in the 2008-2009 "crash"). But if any rally can't get back above 105, it would mean the dollar is bearish and back on track for its final corrective drop to the end of a long-term 15-16 year cycle due in 2023 -2025 in the 55 - 50 range.

On Friday, crude oil prices closed above $115, and today they closed just above $117. This is a very bullish signal and confirms the May 19 low of $103.24 as the first sub-cycle low in a new medium-term cycle that began on April 11 at $92.14 (July contract chart). We should expect a strong rally now, but because we are at the center of our general reversal zone, we could also see a short-term top followed by a corrective dip. As I've stated in previous blogs, I am not anxious to chase this rally which seems to be at least partly driven by the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict. Nevertheless, any significant correction may entice me to buy as the overall cycle trend in crude is looking quite bullish. We will remain on the sidelines for now.

Trading Blog Wednesday, May 25, 2022

5/25/2022

BRIEF COMMENT ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (4:30 pm EDST)

Today a nervous Wall Street waited with "bated breath" for the detailed minutes of the recent FOMC meeting fearing they would find more aggressive hawkish rhetoric in those minutes. They did not. The minutes simply reflected what the Fed suggested in their original statement and press conference, i.e. most likely a few more half point increases in interest rates. After early day jitters, the broad stock market breathed a sigh of relief and closed up for the day. But several more half point rate hikes is still hawkish, so it is questionable if this market can maintain its confidence over the next several days and into next week.

We enter our new strong general reversal zone (May 26 - June 30) tomorrow. The DOW and S&P 500 appear to be rising into it, but the NASDAQ may be falling. We will watch carefully for significant lows or highs in these indices into next week. We may get both. We are still on the sidelines of this market.

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), May 24, 2022

5/24/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (8:00 pm EDST)

It looks like last Friday's lows may have been a significant sub-cycle bottom for the broad stock market - at least for the DOW and S&P 500. The NASDAQ seems to be a little less bullish at the moment and looks like it could make a new low into our new strong reversal zone coming up this Thursday (May 26 - June 3). If it does that without the other two indices, we will have a strong intermarket bullish divergence signal. If that happens, we will consider buying the DOW or S&P 500 as there is a possibility these indices are just starting new medium-term cycles and could be at least short-term bullish. It is more clear, however, that the NASDAQ is an older cycle and is bearish. The top of any sub-cycle rally in the NASDAQ should probably be sold short as the final bottom to this cycle is due in 5-13 weeks. For that matter, even a bullish rally in the DOW and S&P 500 would probably fall short of making new all-time highs and would turn bearish early in the new cycles. We are still on the sidelines of this market.

Gold and silver prices are edging higher this week. If they can reach our target zones (around $1900 in gold and $23 - $24 in silver) for a sub-cycle top soon, we will consider going short in both metals because both gold and silver most likely started new medium-term cycles on March 29. They have now fallen below those starting points and are therefore bearish and headed down.

Wednesday-Thursday could be a turning point for gold (and it is the start of our new general reversal zone, May 26 - June 3). That would be a good time for a top (as well as all of next week as we have another reversal zone specifically for the precious metals from May 27- June 6). Let's see how high prices can get in these time frames. Still on the sidelines of gold and silver.

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to fall, which is in line with our idea that the dollar's medium-term cycle is now correcting down to its final bottom which is due (overdue) anytime now (it could happen in our upcoming reversal zone May 26 - June 3). Any falling in the dollar now will help boost a rally in the precious metals, but once the greenback finds its bottom, it will rally again and likely turn gold and silver prices back down.

Crude oil prices seem to be stabilizing around $110 (July contract chart). We are now at the center of a new reversal zone specifically for crude (May 19 - 27). Last Thursday's low (May 19) at $103.24 may have been a significant low and turning point, but if prices make a new high by Friday, that could also qualify as a significant top ready to turn back down. I've been avoiding trading this market as the "wild card" factor of the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war makes crude potentially very volatile. Nevertheless, a clear break and close above $115 could be a very bullish signal and the start of a rally that could go as high as $150. Also, any significant correction that stays above $94 could be a good spot to go long as the overall trend of this market is bullish. For now, we will remain on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Thursday, May 19, 2022

5/19/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (3:30 pm EDST)

After rallying a bit on Monday and Tuesday, it looks like the broad stock market is headed down again. Today the DOW made a new weekly low, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ did not (yet). This gives us a bullish divergence signal (until the S&P 500 and NASDAQ break last week's lows). Some sort of sub-cycle bottom could still be forming here (or early next week if all three indices do not make new lows then). There is a possible turning point for this market next Monday - Tuesday. If we don't see a sub-cycle bottom then, we may see one in the new strong general reversal zone coming up late next week (May 26 - June 3). Because this market looks very bearish now, we may avoid buying this bottom and just wait to short sell the top of any rally that follows. We remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

After floundering earlier this week, gold and silver prices are rallying strongly today. We were expecting a bounce in prices, and we'll watch now to see if they can rally to our targets for a sub-cycle top. That would be around $1900 in gold and $23 - $24 in silver. If we get to those levels next week, we will consider going short. We are on the sidelines of both metals for now.

Not surprisingly, today's surge in precious metal prices is happening as we see a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index. We have been anticipating a significant correction in the dollar, and that may be happening now. It is very late in the dollar's medium-term cycle, so it will likely fall now to it's final cycle bottom which is overdue and will likely happen within the next few weeks. We are very interested to see how far this bottom will go. If the correction is modest, there's a chance the greenback could rally back to rise again and break clearly above last week's top at $105. That would be very bullish for the dollar. But if this index makes a very deep correction now, it may not be able to get back above $105, and that would mean we would likely be back on track with our "normal" 15 -16 year long-term cycle that is due to bottom over the next few years, possibly as low as 55.

Crude oil prices have been falling this week, but they seem to be finding support near the 15-day and 45-day moving averages. We enter a new reversal zone specifically for crude today (May 19 - 27), so a sub-cycle bottom could be imminent. If prices continue to fall into next week, I may consider buying, although I am a bit reluctant to trade this market as the Russia/Ukraine conflict rages on and makes this market potentially very volatile. We will stay on the sidelines of crude for now.

Trading Blog Monday (late night), May 16, 2022

5/16/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (11:30 pm EDST)

In last Thursday's blog on the broad stock market I wrote:

" I am going to allow this market two more trading days to form a possible bottom. If we get a bullish divergence signal on Monday (i.e. one or two - but not all three - of our market indices - DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ - making a new low), that might signal the formation of a bottom. If equities continue to fall past Monday, however, we will have to assume that the market is bypassing a reversal and is breaking down.

Even if a sub-cycle bottom forms by Monday, I would not be enthusiastic about going long. This market is starting to look very bearish, and the chances of another rally to challenge the all-time highs are starting to look slim (but not impossible)."

Despite a hesitant start, the DOW and S&P 500 managed to push a little higher today, but then the rally seemed to loose steam at the end of the day. Unlike the DOW and S&P 500, the NASDAQ was not able to break above Friday's high, and so rather than a bullish divergence signal, we have a bearish divergence signal instead. Last Thursday's deep low in equities, however, could still be a significant bottom, as long as this market doesn't break below those lows over the next few days. But as I stated on Thursday, we do not want to chase any rallies right now as they may be short-lived. If we get a rally now that pushes higher into our next strong reversal zone (May 26 - June 3), that might be a good place to sell short.

Our medium-term cycle labeling of the DOW and S&P 500 is a little ambiguous at the moment (may be old or new cycle), but it is fairly clear that the NASDAQ is a fairly young cycle that started with the low of 12,555 on March 14. This cycle has already gone well below its starting point and is therefore bearish and should continue lower for at least 6 more weeks to the final cycle bottom (with brief relief rallies - possible shorting opportunities - on its way down).

Let's stay on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now as we watch for opportunities to sell short. Our main concern at this point is whether or not these three market indices can make new all-time highs. Right now that seems unlikely (but not impossible).

Gold made a new weekly low today (just below $1800) while silver did not, so we did get a bullish divergence signal in the precious metals market. Let's watch for a rally now in both metals and see how high they can go.

Any rally in gold shouldn't go very far because it looks like this is a fairly young medium-term cycle that started with the low of $1891 on March 29, and the cycle is bearish because prices have already gone well below that low. We should probably be looking to go short at the top of any corrective rally from here. A good target for that rally might be around $1900. There's a small chance that today's low could be the end of an older medium-term cycle in gold and the start of a new one. If that's the case, any rally might last a little longer and go higher, but more than likely it would peak early and still turn down soon as gold's trend seems to be turning bearish.

Silver is also most likely a young medium-term cycle that started with the low of $24.02 on March 29 and, like gold, is bearish because it has now fallen well below that low. Last Friday's low at $20.52 looks like a significant sub-cycle bottom as today prices rose steeply from there. A good target for a sub-cycle rally now could be around $23 - $24. As with gold, there's also a small chance Friday's low was the final bottom of an older cycle and the start of a new one. In that case, a rally might go higher. Next Monday could be a significant turning point for both gold and silver. If we see a top forming then, we will consider shorting both metals.

Let's stay on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.

The U.S. Dollar Index is VERY late in its medium-term cycle, so some sort of top is imminent. This index briefly touched 105 last Friday, which was the last day of a reversal zone specifically for currencies. That could have been the top. The greenback could fall now, and that could correlate with the rally we are expecting in the precious metals. As I've discussed in recent blogs, a clear break above 104 could mean that the U.S. dollar is breaking out, turning bullish and possibly aborting its normal 15-16 year cycle. We'll see if that's the case by watching how serious any correction goes now. If the dollar takes a steep dive and can't get back above 104, we'll assume the break above 104 was a "fake-out" (common during "Mercury retrograde" periods - we are in one now). That would put us back on track for a "normal' 15-16 year long-term cycle which is due to end over the next few years, possibly as low as 55. But if the greenback's imminent correction is modest and this index can climb back above 104, we may see the U.S. dollar soar to new heights for another two years or more.

Crude oil prices continue to rise, and they seem to be staying above a downward sloping trend line starting from the $116 top on March 7 (July contract chart). I continue to be reluctant to buy into this rally as the ongoing "wild card" factor of the Russia/Ukraine war makes this market potentially very volatile. May 19 - 27 is another reversal zone specifically for crude. If prices correct down again into this reversal zone and stay above that trend line (now around $96), I might be tempted to buy. On the other hand, if prices instead rise into this time zone, we may see a correction delayed by a top near resistance around $116 and then a correction back down. A break and close above $116 would be a bullish sign and could be followed by a rally that could get as high as $150. Let's stay on the sidelines of crude oil for now.

Trading Blog Thursday, May 12, 2022

5/12/2022

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET, PRECIOUS METALS, AND THE U.S. DOLLAR (4:00 pm EDST)

Today is technically the last day of our strong general reversal zone (May 3 - 12), but I'm going to extend this into Friday, and perhaps even Monday, as we enter s period of high volatility and possible false signals and breaking of normal technical boundaries from May 10 - June 2. (Financial astrologers identify this as a "Mercury retrograde" period.)

The broad stock market is falling steeply into the end of this reversal zone. Usually this means a bottom and reversal back up is imminent. But if downward momentum is strong (as it is here), reversal zones can sometimes correspond to a breakdown instead of a reversal. I am going to allow this market two more trading days to form a possible bottom. If we get a bullish divergence signal on Monday (i.e. one or two - but not all three - of our market indices - DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ - making a new low), that might signal the formation of a bottom. If equities continue to fall past Monday, however, we will have to assume that the market is bypassing a reversal and is breaking down.

Even if a sub-cycle bottom forms by Monday, I would not be enthusiastic about going long. This market is starting to look very bearish, and the chances of another rally to challenge the all-time highs are starting to look slim (but not impossible). Today the U.S. senate confirmed Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman for a second term. Powell's aggressively hawkish plan to raise interest rates is certainly contributing to Wall Street's fears of a stock market sell-off.

I think our strategy now should be looking to sell short any short-term rallies, as a long-term correction in the broad stock market may already be in progress. We are staying on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.

Gold and silver prices continued to push lower today. As with the broad stock market, I think I will expand the reversal zone for this market into next Monday. It's possible that one or both metals are now forming a bottom to an older medium-term cycle. If that's true, it would be nice to see a bullish divergence signal with one but not both metals making a new weekly low. We're not getting that this week, but it could happen next week on Monday, and it may be a good spot to buy. For now, we will remain on the sidelines of gold and silver.

Today the U.S. Dollar Index broke and closed above 104. Friday is the end of a reversal zone specifically for currencies (May 5 - 13), and it is also very late in the current medium-term cycle for the U.S. dollar. This index is either making a top here and is about to take a steep correction back down or it is "breaking out" and signaling that the political cycle in the U.S. dollar is going to override the normal long-term 15-16 year cycle (please see my discussion of the U.S. Dollar Index in blog posts from April 9 and April 27). As I mentioned at the start of this blog, we are now in a period of high volatility and possible false signals in the markets through June 2 (Mercury retrograde). It would not surprise me to see this dollar "breakout" turn into a "fake-out". On the other hand, if the broad stock market is breaking down, it would also not surprise me to see investors fleeing equity markets and investing in the U.S. dollar as a safe haven as they did during the 2008-2009 equity sell-off. A dollar breakout would likely be bearish for the precious metals.

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), May 10, 2022

5/10/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (9:30 pm EDST)

Last Wednesday Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a press conference following the announcement of a significant 1/2 point rise in benchmark interest rates. He tried to soften the blow of the hike with some dovish rhetoric, and this did boost equity markets into the closing bell on Wednesday. I commented in my blog that day:

"Powell's soothing rhetoric following the sharp rate increase boosted equity markets today, but will Wall Street's confidence last in the face of continuing inflation, rising oil prices and the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war? "

The answer to that question was "no". The broad stock market tumbled sharply on Thursday and Friday and continued lower yesterday (Monday). This sharp correction MAY be slowing down and leveling off today. After all, we are nearing the end of a strong general reversal zone (May 3 - 12), so some sort of bottom could be forming now. There are, however, currently some strong bearish signals in this market that we can't ignore.

It is most likely that all three of our stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) started new medium-term cycles with their lows on Feb.24 (the NASDAQ actually made a "double" low/bottom on Feb. 24 and March 14). All three indices are now breaking below those lows. This means the medium-term cycles are likely turning bearish. Even if they form significant sub-cycle bottoms this week and start to rally, it is unlikely the rally will get very far before turning down again. If we do get a rally now, it would most likely top out in our NEXT significant reversal zone coming up May 26 - June 3. (If instead markets panic this week and sell off some more, that reversal zone could end up corresponding to a significant new low instead of a high.) Needless to say, I am not anxious to buy the potential bottom forming now. If these indices can start closing above their March 29 highs (35,370, 4,638, and 14,647 in the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, respectively), it's possible they could turn bullish again. But right now that doesn't look likely. Our strategy now will be to look for a significant top to sell short - possibly in that next reversal zone at the end of this month and first week of June. It is starting to look like a LONG-TERM top in equity markets formed in early January in the DOW and S&P 500 and in November 2021 in the NASDAQ. If true, that means a major long-term correction in equities has already started. We remain on the sidelines of this market for now.

There are two possible scenarios for both gold and silver right now. Both metals could be about to form their final bottoms to older medium-term cycles. But it is more likely that they both started new, younger medium-term cycles with their lows of $1892 (gold) and $24.02 (silver) on March 29. In this case, both gold and silver have turned bearish because they are now well below those starting points. We are now at the center of a reversal zone specifically for these metals (May 4-12) and prices are falling. A sub-cycle low could form by Thursday with a rally to follow. If these are young cycles (as I think), then that rally should not go far before turning down again. If any rally in either metal lasts over 8 days and starts to look strong and steep, we may have to assume an older cycle bottomed and that prices could be headed for new highs. I don't think that will happen, but we should be aware of the possibility. For now we'll assume that these cycles are bearish, and we may look for shorting opportunities at the top of any short-term rally. As with the broad stock market, a long-term correction in gold may already be underway from a potential "double-top" that formed in August 2020 and March 2022 around $2070. We are still on the sidelines of both gold and silver.

Speaking of "double-tops", we have previously identified a double-top high in the long-term 15-16 year cycle in the U.S. Dollar Index (103.82 from Jan. 2017 and 102.99 from March 2020). This index has been testing those highs again over the last two weeks, and it could be forming a 'triple-top" high here (very bearish). There seems to be a strong line of resistance at 104. On Monday, the greenback made a new high at 104.19 - right in the center of a reversal zone specifically for currencies (May 5-13). It is also very late in the current medium-term cycle of the dollar which means a final top is due (overdue) anytime now. The dollar could be ready to turn over now and start a steep correction down. If that happens, it could give a lift to gold and silver prices. As I've mentioned in recent updates on the U.S.Dollar Index, if the greenback can't rise significantly above 104, we may be back on track for the final correction to the final bottom in the long-term 15-16 year cycle due in 2023 - 2025, possibly in the 55 - 60 range.

Crude oil most likely started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $92.60 on April 11 (June contract chart). This new cycle will be bullish if it can break above $115. It made a high of $111.37 last week, but prices seem to be falling this week (so far). If this corrective dip goes too low, the cycle may turn bearish. (We don't want to see a close below $94.) Let's stay on the sidelines of crude for now. If prices don't go too low this week, we may consider going long. If prices can break above $115, we could see a rally go as high as $145 - $150.

Trading Blog Wednesday, May 4, 2022

5/4/2022

COMMENT ON THE FED MEETING and the BROAD STOCK MARKET (4:00 pm EDST)

The Fed raised interest rates today by 1/2 point, which was more than expected (the Fed rarely raises rates more than 1/4 point in one session). The broad stock market responded by initially falling after the announcement at 2:00 pm, but then it recovered sharply as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a press conference and assuaged Wall Street's fears by saying that there may be a few more 1/2 point increases, but then that would be it. He rejected the idea of a 75 basis point increase that some investors had been fearing, and he also said that he doesn't expect policy tightening to bring on a recession. Instead, he stated that he thought the Fed could bring down inflation gently and that the economy could have a "soft or softish landing". Powell's soothing rhetoric following the sharp rate increase boosted equity markets today, but will Wall Street's confidence last in the face of continuing inflation, rising oil prices and the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war?

We just entered a new and strong general reversal zone (May 3 - 12), so there is plenty of time for the broad stock market to make new lows in this time frame. However, if it does start rallying from here, we could instead see a significant top in the same period. We will stay on the sidelines for now as we wait to see if Powell's "pep talk" will have a lasting bullish effect on equity markets beyond a day or two.

Trading Blog Tuesday, May 3, 2022

5/3/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (5:30 pm EDST)

Yesterday the S&P 500 and NASDAQ made new weekly lows BELOW THEIR FEB. 24 LOWS - a bearish sign; however, the DOW did not make a new low and is still above its Feb. 24th low. This creates a strong bullish divergence signal. Thus we have mixed signals in the broad stock market right now. And it is happening as we enter a new strong reversal zone (May 3 - 12). We also have an FOMC meeting this week that ends tomorrow with the Fed updating its policy on interest rates. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise rates, but there is some debate on just how much. If the Fed is too hawkish, we could see equities push lower. Even if that happens, if the DOW can stay above its Feb. 24 low (32,283) inside our new reversal zone, that bullish divergence might propel another rally that could challenge the all-time highs. We will stay on the sidelines for now as we watch how the markets react to the Fed's statement to be delivered at 2:00 pm tomorrow afternoon.

Gold and silver prices continue to fall this week. Silver is likely falling to the final bottom of an older medium-term cycle that is due this week or next. We enter a new reversal zone specifically for the precious metals tomorrow (May 4 - 12). Silver is already in our target range for a bottom ($22.5 - $23), so we may be looking to buy soon. Gold may also be moving into the final bottom of an older medium-term cycle within this new reversal zone. Let's stay on the sidelines of both metals for now and see where they go into the end of this week.

If the Fed raises interest rates tomorrow, it could give a boost to the U.S. Dollar Index as a hawkish Fed demonstrates fiscal responsibility and gives investors confidence in the greenback. As I've mentioned in recent special blogs on the U.S. dollar (April 9 and April 27), we are waiting to see if the greenback can exceed 104 - an important "triple-top" to a long-term 15-16 year cycle that began with the low of 70.69 in March 2008. If it can't break clearly above 104 and continue higher, then we are probably on track for a very significant correction in the dollar from this top over the next few years to a final long-term cycle bottom into 2023- 2025 that could go as low as 55 - 60.

Currently the dollar seems to be forming a top just under 104 over the last several trading days. It is also near the end of a medium-term cycle and is due (overdue) for a correction. We enter a reversal zone specifically for currencies on Thursday (May 5 - 13). It looks like this index is ripe for a top and correction any day now. Perhaps the Fed's interest rate raise will push the greenback a bit higher, and then it reverses back down. This could be in sync with the precious metals dropping a bit lower and then reversing back up. We will watch for this.

Crude oil prices have been rising into a reversal zone specifically for crude (April 26 - May 4), and it may have formed a top last Friday at $108 (June contract chart). So far, the correction from that top hasn't been great, and prices seem to be finding support near the 15-day and 45-day moving averages. This could mean that prices are ready to rally some more. This market is very volatile right now because of the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war, and that makes me reluctant to trade right now. If prices edge a bit lower past Wednesday, I might consider buying as the current medium-term cycle could be be quite bullish. We will stay on the sidelines for now.

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