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Trading Blog Thursday, November 30, 2023

11/30/2023

UPDATES on the BROAD STOCK MARKET and CRUDE OIL (9:30 pm EST)

The steep rally in the broad stock market may be waning. Although the DOW surged to a new high today, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ did not exceed yesterday's highs, and the NASDAQ closed with a loss. The DOW also broke above its summer high while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have not gone above their summer highs (yet), and that gives us another bearish divergence signal. The new medium-term cycles in all three indices (starting from their Oct. 26 - 27 lows) are now ripe for a sub-cycle correction. Although we won't see a strong general reversal zone until Dec. 12 - 21, we just entered a minor and weak reversal zone centered around next Monday (Nov. 29 - Dec. 8). We would normally ignore a very weak reversal signal, but because other factors are suggesting a top, this one may be significant.

As I mentioned in my previous blog (Monday) on the broad stock market:

"In a bullish market, a normal sub-cycle correction would at least test the 15-day moving average (now around 13,972 in the DOW and 4,472 in the S&P 500, both rising). We may look to buy if these indices test or push a bit below these levels this week or next. If instead equity markets continue to push higher, we may have to wait a little longer for a significant sub-cycle correction."

This still applies, and at least the S&P 500 and NASDAQ may be starting their turn-down today. If this market is very bullish, however, the rally could push higher into that Dec.12 - 21 reversal zone before making any significant correction. We will wait to buy a corrective low near or below those 15-day moving averages whether it happens sooner or later. We remain on the sidelines for now.

Yesterday crude oil managed to close above its 15-day moving average, but today prices are back below it again. A baseline of support seems to be forming at $75.

We're still not sure if the current medium-term cycle in crude began with the low of $76.75 (Jan. 2024 contract chart) on Aug. 24 or the low of $78.93 on Oct. 6. Either way, the medium-term cycle's trend is bearish, but if the cycle is old (Aug. 24 start), it is getting close to its final bottom. We have a reversal zone specifically for crude oil coming up Dec. 5 - 13 that overlaps with our general reversal zone Dec. 12 - 21. That could be a good time frame for the final bottom of an older cycle and a possible spot to buy.

On the other hand, if the medium-term cycle started on Oct. 6 (younger), its final bottom isn't due for at least seven more weeks at a price that could be substantially lower than $72.37. Let's stay on the sidelines and wait to see if next week's reversal corresponds to a low or high before we make any trading decisions.

Trading Blog Wednesday, November 29, 2023

11/29/2023

GOLD TRADE ALERT (3:00 pm EST)

Gold and silver prices have been rising steeply for over two weeks and both are now approaching strong resistance areas with gold testing $2050 and silver challenging $25. We are also inside a time frame (Nov. 28-30) that is a potentially strong "pivot point" for silver and also gold. The medium-term cycle in both metals is also ripe for a steep sub-cycle corrective "dip". For these reasons, I am going to sell my long position in gold today. We have a decent profit on this trade as we bought it on Nov. 9 at $1958. As with silver, we will wait for a substantial corrective drop in gold and plan on buying it again at that point (along with silver) within the next week or two. Any sub-cycle correction now should at least test the 15-day moving average for both metals. (That would be around $1986 in gold and $24 in silver, both rising.) The trend in gold and silver now is bullish, so that is our trading strategy at the moment. If gold starts falling below $1930 and silver below $22, however, we might have to abandon that bullish view.

Trading Blog Monday, November 27, 2023

11/27/2023

MARKETS UPDATE (10:00 pm EST)

Last week's equity rally into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday may be the first leg up in a broader "Santa Claus" rally that sometimes propels the broad stock market with holiday cheer up into Christmas and New Year's Day. Will it happen this year? It is still early in the current medium-term cycles of the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (which started with their Oct. 26-27 lows), and it's likely a longer-term (50 week) cycle also started from those lows. This means there's a good chance this market will be bullish into the new year.

Right now, however, a possible sub-cycle corrective dip could be imminent. Today the DOW made a new weekly high, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ did not (intermarket bearish divergence), and all three indices closed with losses. A corrective dip could be starting. In a bullish market, a normal sub-cycle correction would at least test the 15-day moving average (now around 13,972 in the DOW and 4,472 in the S&P 500, both rising). We may look to buy if these indices test or push a bit below these levels this week or next. If instead equity markets continue to push higher, we may have to wait a little longer for a significant sub-cycle correction. The next strong general reversal zone is coming up Dec.12 - 21. It's too early to tell if that will correspond to a high or low, but we will trade accordingly. We are remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.

Gold prices jumped up today and closed at $2014. This is above the Oct. 27 peak of $2009 and likely confirms the current medium-term cycle trend as bullish. We will thus stay long in our gold position and try to ride out any corrective dips (unless they go too low). Silver prices also shot up today, but they are now approaching a strong resistance area near $25. Furthermore, silver is now entering a strong potential "pivot point" time frame between today and Wednesday, so a top and corrective drop could be imminent, and it may be quite steep. If we get this, we will look at it as an opportunity to buy, as long as prices hold above $21. We remain on the sidelines of silver for now.

Last week crude oil prices tested the 15-day moving average but failed to break through. Today crude closed well below that average and near $75 (Jan. 2024 contract chart). As I have mentioned in previous blogs, crude's current medium-term cycle has most likely turned bearish, and prices should push lower until the end of the cycle. There's a possibility the old cycle ended and a new one began with the Nov. 16 low at $72.37. If so, prices shouldn't go below that low and should rally now. If not, prices should continue to fall lower, perhaps after a brief bounce back up to test the 15-day and 45-day moving averages. There is a reversal zone specifically for crude coming up Dec. 5 - 13. We will have to wait and see if that is going to be a low or high. If a low, it may correspond to a final cycle bottom and a good buying opportunity. For now, we remain on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), November 21, 2023

11/21/2023

MARKETS UPDATE (7:00 pm EST)

We've determined that all three of our broad stock market indices started new medium-term cycles with their late October lows (32,327, 4,104, and 12,544 in the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, respectively). These indices also most likely started a new longer-term (50 week) cycle with those lows. This means this market could be quite bullish into the end of this year and start of 2024. We have seen a steep multi-week rally from those Oct. lows with all three indices now exceeding their late summer highs. This rally is now entitled to a corrective 'breather", and we could see one anytime over the next few weeks. We could even see a top and the start of a sub-cycle correction this week as we are still inside a mild reversal zone (Nov. 14 - 23). We remain on the sidelines as we watch for any significant corrective sub-cycle lows to buy.

After a corrective dip yesterday, gold rallied strongly today to make a new weekly high as well as challenge its previous high from Oct. 27 ($2009). We need to see that high broken to confirm the current medium-term cycle as bullish. We note that as gold made a new weekly high today, silver did not (bearish divergence), so another corrective dip could be imminent. Because both metals are trending bullish, our trading strategy now is to hold our long position in gold (unless it starts closing back below the 15-day moving average - now around $1971 - before it breaks above $2009), and to look to buy silver on any significant corrective low. Thus we are holding our gold long position and staying on the sidelines of silver for now.

After its deep low from last week ($72.37 - Jan. 2024 contract chart), crude oil prices are bubbling up a bit and testing their 15-day moving average. We are staying out of crude for now as the medium-term cycle trend has turned very bearish, and we expect lower prices until the cycle forms its final bottom. If the current cycle began on Aug. 23, that bottom may not be far away. We will watch for it as a potential buy spot as the longer-term cycles in crude still look bullish.

Trading Blog Thursday (night), November 16, 2023

11/16/2023

MARKETS UPDATE (10:30 pm EST)

The broad stock market has been rising steeply this week. The NASDAQ broke above its Aug./Sept. high, but the DOW and S&P 500 failed to exceed their Aug./Sept. highs, so we have a bearish divergence signal for now. We are moving into the center of a mild reversal zone (Nov. 14 - 23) so we are on the lookout for a top followed by a downward correction. As I discussed in my previous blog, it is very early in our medium-term cycles for the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, and equity markets are now looking very bullish. We therefore intend to buy any significant corrective low. We remain on the sidelines for now.

Gold and silver both rallied strongly today, and gold closed above its 15-day moving average, a bullish sign. This is good news for our long gold position which we entered on Nov. 9 as it now gives us a profit (it was slightly in the red Friday and Monday). To confirm a bullish trend in the current medium-term cycle, gold needs to start closing above its Oct. high of $2009. Silver has already cleared its Oct. high and looks very bullish. We note, however, that this sharp rally in silver is happening inside our current general reversal zone, so a sharp correction down to a sub-cycle low may be imminent. If that happens, we may be looking to buy. We will probably ride out any corrective dips in gold, as long as they don't go TOO low (i.e. say, below $1920). We expect silver to challenge and exceed its previous medium-term cycle top ($25.26) over the next several weeks and gold to challenge and exceed the $2050 line on its way to a potential new all-time high. Let's hold our long position in gold and remain on the sidelines of silver for now.

Today crude oil prices plummeted to a new low around $72 (Dec. contract chart) reinforcing our analysis showing the current medium-term cycle turning bearish. It's still not clear if this medium-term cycle started with the low of Aug. 24 ($77.03) or the low of Oct. 6 ($80.20). Either way, its bearish, and prices will be headed lower until the final cycle bottom is reached. In the meantime, we will stay on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Tuesday, November 14, 2023

11/14/2023

MARKETS UPDATE (with important update on the BROAD STOCK MARKET) (10:00 pm EST)

Our decision to "bail out" of our short position in the broad stock market on Monday was a good one as equities staged a massive rally today. Our stop loss parameters served us well, and because the indices were down just a bit at Monday's market open, we were able to get out with very little loss.

Despite recent hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, equities are manifesting an unusual bullish vigor. The capacity of Wall Street for what former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan would call "irrational exuberance" never ceases to surprise me. This market has plenty of reasons (technical and geopolitical) to be falling, but it is not (for now). Of course, we are now entering the big "holiday season" (Thanksgiving and Christmas) here in the U.S., and that sometimes produces a "Santa Claus" rally into the new year as investors and traders become more optimistic during the festive season.

This bullish market has forced us to relabel our medium-term cycles in the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. We will now label the deep lows of Oct. 26 (NASDAQ) and Oct. 27 (DOW and S&P 500) as the start of new medium-term cycles. Those lows were 32,327 (DOW), 4,104 (S&P 500), and 12.544 (NASDAQ). We are already off to a bullish start with a sharp rise from those lows, and today all three indices "gapped" up well above their recent October highs.

Our trading strategy now will be bullish as it's likely this market will be rallying strongly into the new year. This means we will wait for the first significant sub-cycle correction to buy. We may see one fairly soon as we just entered yet another general reversal zone today (Nov. 14 - 23). This one is not as strong as our last one, but it is not weak. If the market continues to rally this week and next, we could easily see a top inside this time frame followed by a downward correction that could give us a buying opportunity. We will watch for this now as we sit back on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

I should mention here that our long-term view of the broad stock market making a huge correction (possibly crash) sometime in 2024 is still valid, although the technical signals supporting this idea may be weakening a bit. If we look at a a 3-year chart of our market indices, it now does not seem so far-fetched that the DOW or even the S&P 500 could rally and exceed their all-time highs from January 2022 (i.e. 36,953 and 4,819, respectively), especially if the current bullish trend continues. The NASDAQ, however, would have a little more climbing to do before it could exceed its all-time high from November 2021 (16,212). If the DOW and S&P 500 manage to exceed their all-time highs without the NASDAQ, this would be a strong bearish divergence signal and a very severe correction could follow. On the other hand, if ALL THREE indices exceed their all-time highs, we may have to abandon the idea of an imminent severe correction next year, or at least post-pone it for several more years.

Gold and especially silver rallied strongly today which did not surprise us as yesterday's low in both metals was on the last day of a reversal zone specifically for precious metals, and it was a potential "pivot point" for gold. We now want to see gold break above its 15-day moving average (around $1973) as well as the $2009 high from Oct. 27 to confirm that the current medium-term cycle is bullish. Silver broke dramatically through both its 15-day and 45-day moving averages today, which is very bullish. We note, however, that we have now entered that new general reversal zone from Nov. 14 - 23, so its possible a top could form in any rally that continues this week or next. There is also a strong potential "pivot point" for silver coming up Nov. 24 - 29 which could also correspond to a top and a strong reversal back down. Silver tends to make a strong corrective dip around the middle of its medium-term cycle, so instead of chasing the current rally, let's wait for a corrective drop to buy as the cycle's trend seems bullish. We are holding our long position in gold and staying on the sidelines of silver for now.

In Saturday's blog on the U.S. Dollar Index I wrote:

"...the greenback is now coming up against a resistance line (formally support) around 106 where the 45-day and 15-day moving averages are converging. If this turns the dollar back down, it could send gold and silver prices back up."

This is exactly what happened today as the greenback plunged sharply to 104 and the precious metals rallied. There may be some support for the dollar at 104, and if it can bounce back up from there, we may lose upward momentum in the metals. We will watch this closely.

Crude oil prices are rising a bit this week from last week's low around $75 (Dec. contract chart), but we are standing aside this market for the time being as it seems like the current medium-term cycle has turned bearish. The longer-term cycle in crude still looks bullish, so we may be looking to buy at some point, but as long as the medium-term cycle is bearish, we will stay on the sidelines.

Trading Blog Saturday (night), November 11, 2023

11/11/2023

BROAD STOCK MARKET TRADE ALERT and MARKETS UPDATE (8:00 pm EST)

My "sigh of relief" (for our short position in equities) with Thursday's sharp drop in the broad stock market was short-lived as Friday saw a strong rally that pushed all three market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) back above their mid-October highs.

Last Tuesday I wrote:

"We are now at a critical juncture that will determine which labeling is correct. If our old labeling is correct (new medium-term cycles starting from the Aug. lows), the trend is definitely bearish. With this labeling, we expect any rally to top out this week, turn sharply down again and continue to decline into the end of the year....If our new labeling is correct (new medium-term cycles starting from the Oct. 26-27 lows), these indices should have no trouble exceeding their mid-Oct. highs and should rally strongly into the end of the year."

Friday's close above the mid-Oct. highs in all three indices negated last week's bearish divergence signal and strongly suggests the new labeling is correct. That is, it looks like new medium-term cycles began with the Oct. 27-27 lows. Friday was technically one day out of our strong reversal zone, so it looks like this "reversal" could turn out to be a "break-out" instead. Our stop loss for our short position in this market was based on all three indices exceeding those mid-Oct. highs, so some traders may have covered their short positions already. I was not able to trade on Friday and am still holding my short position which I will cover (unload) at Monday's market open. Any traders still holding shorts can do the same. It's possible Friday's break-out could be a "fake-out" with the market turning strongly down early next week. If that happens, we might get a better exit price on Monday's early trade, but we have very little loss on this trade anyway because we entered it on Oct. 12 and are close to our entry point - especially in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ (we traded the S&P 500). I am placing an order this week-end to cover (unload) my short position in the broad stock market at Monday's market open.

Gold and silver prices fell some more on Friday which puts our long gold position (entered on Thursday) sightly in the red. Support around $1950 was broken, but prices are still above the 45-day moving average (around $1923), and we are still inside a reversal zone for precious metals as well as a potential "pivot point" for gold though next Wednesday. Let's hold our long position in gold and stay on the sidelines of silver for now.

A rising U.S. Dollar Index last week put downward pressure on the precious metals, but the greenback is now coming up against a resistance line (formally support) around 106 where the 45-day and 15-day moving averages are converging. If this turns the dollar back down, it could send gold and silver prices back up.

Crude oil may be finding a support around $75 and bouncing up from last week's low of $74.91 (December contract chart), but as I pointed out in my last blog on crude, the current medium-term cycle has likely turned bearish (whether it started on Oct. 24 or Aug. 6) so we are not keen to buy right now. We are staying on the sidelines of crude for the time being.

Trading Blog Thursday, November 9, 2023

11/9/2023

GOLD TRADE ALERT and BRIEF COMMENT ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (3:00 pm EST)

In Tuesday's blog on gold, I wrote:

"The current correction is falling right into the center of a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Nov. 2 - 15) and it has already fallen below the 15-day moving average. A bottom could be imminent. Prices could go as low as $1900, but because this market looks bullish, they may not go that far down. A good target could be anywhere between the 15-day and 45-day moving averages, i.e. between $1920 - $1980 (today prices got to $1957). Thursday and Friday are strong potential "pivot points" for gold, so we may see a bottom then. We will watch for a buy spot this week..."

Well, today is Thursday - a possible "pivot point" for gold, and we are still near the center of our reversal zone for precious metals (Nov. 2 - 15). Today prices made a new weekly low at $1945 but seem to be finding a support line at $1950. This looks like a good spot to buy. Let's enter a long position in gold now. We can set an initial stop loss for this trade just below the 45-day moving average (around $1922). Silver may also be bottoming now, but it is below both its 15-day and 45-day moving averages, so it's possible it could fall lower. Let's hold off buying silver for now.

Today the broad stock market was holding its breath waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 2 pm this afternoon. In his speech, Mr. Powell said that more interest rate increases are still a possibility. Apparently Wall Street was not expecting such hawkish rhetoric, and equities are tumbling on this news. Of course, our technical and cycle analysis (sub-cycle top in a strong reversal zone with bearish divergence) was predicting this, and we can breathe at least a temporary sigh of relief for our short position in this market (which we will keep for now).

Trading Blog Tuesday (night), November 7, 2023

11/7/2023

MARKETS UPDATE (9:30 pm EST)

The strong momentum from last week's rally in the broad stock market has softened just a bit, but all three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) continue to move higher. The strength of this rally from the Oct. 26 (NASDAQ) and Oct. 27 (DOW and S&P 500) deep lows is forcing me to re-evaluate the labeling of the current medium-term cycles. We had been assuming new medium-term cycles began from the Aug. lows in all three indices, but it's possible those Aug. lows were not the end of the previous cycle (and beginning of a new one). Instead, the older (previous) cycle could have extended into Oct. 26 and 27 and ended there, thus making these deep Oct. lows the starting points for new medium-term cycles. If this new labeling is correct, the market could be very bullish with strong rallying ahead

We are now at a critical juncture that will determine which labeling is correct. If our old labeling is correct (new medium-term cycles starting from the Aug. lows), the trend is definitely bearish. With this labeling, we expect any rally to top out this week, turn sharply down again and continue to decline into the end of the year. This scenario is being supported by the fact that the current strong rally is making new highs within our current strong reversal zone (Oct. 31 - Nov. 9), and we also see the DOW exceeding its mid-Oct. high without the S&P 500 and NASDAQ exceeding their mid-Oct. highs which gives us a bearish divergence signal (until the S&P 500 and NASDAQ break their highs - 4,394 and 13,714, respectively - they are close).

If our new labeling is correct (new medium-term cycles starting from the Oct. 26-27 lows), these indices should have no trouble exceeding their mid-Oct. highs and should rally strongly into the end of the year. Obviously, we don't want to have a short position in this market with this new labeling. Our current short trade (which we entered on Oct. 12) is at a break-even point or has a slight loss. Even if this new, bullish labeling is correct, our current reversal zone could produce at least a brief corrective dip that would give us a better spot to cover our short position. If that doesn't happen and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ break through their mid-Oct. highs (4,394 and 13,714), we will cover anyway. Let's hold our short position for now.

Gold's sharp rally from its deep low on Oct. 6 ($1812) confirmed that low as the start of a new medium-term cycle. There had been a strong possibility of this sharp rally accelerating higher into the first two weeks of November, but instead we saw a Halloween "trick" on Oct. 31 with a strong correction down that has continued through today. That "trick", however, may be giving us a "treat" (sorry, couldn't resist the puns). We missed out on the strong October rally and we have been waiting for a significant corrective dip to buy. The current correction is falling right into the center of a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Nov. 2 - 15) and it has already fallen below the 15-day moving average. A bottom could be imminent. Prices could go as low as $1900, but because this market looks bullish, they may not go that far down. A good target could be anywhere between the 15-day and 45-day moving averages, i.e. between $1920 - $1980 (today prices got to $1957). Thursday and Friday are strong potential "pivot points" for gold, so we may see a bottom then. We will watch for a buy spot this week from our current position on the sidelines. Gold's longer-term trend still looks to be bullish which means there's a good possibility it will make a new all-time high (above $2070) fairly soon. This is why we are looking to buy.

Silver prices have been pushing lower since Oct. 20 and they made a new low at $22.48 today beneath both the 15-day and 45-day moving averages. Silver started its current medium-term cycle with its low of $20.70 on Oct. 3, and so, like gold, its cycle is still young, although it doesn't look quite as bullish as gold. As with gold, we should be looking for a significant sub-cycle low in silver to buy, and this week looks like a good time for one. With the reversal zone for precious metals extending into next Wednesday, an ideal buy spot could happen if one metal makes a new weekly low without the other early next week (bullish divergence). But we don't always get "ideal" trading set-ups, and we could see lows forming in either (or both) metals anytime this week. We are on the sidelines of silver for now.

In last Thursday's blog on crude oil I wrote:

"That Oct. 6 low could be the start of a new medium-term cycle, but crude could also be in an older cycle that began with the $77.03 low on Aug. 24. In either case, the cycle's trend is in danger of turning bearish if it starts breaking below $80."

We still aren't sure which cycle labeling (old or new) is correct, but today prices plunged and closed well below $80 (December contract chart), and the overnight market is sending them even slightly below that Aug. 24 low of $77.03. This means that both are turning bearish; however, this new low is happening inside a strong reversal zone that ends on Thursday. A significant bottom and reversal back up could be imminent. Nevertheless, we won't be looking to buy that low as long as the trend bearish trend is in place. Given our current labeling of these cycles, it would take a close back above $90 to turn the trend bullish again. With the ongoing Israel-Hamas war getting worse, that is certainly possible. Let's remain on the sidelines of crude as prices seem very unstable right now.

Trading Blog Thursday (evening), November 2, 2023

11/2/2023

MARKETS UPDATE (7:30 pm EDT)

At yesterday's conclusion of this month's FOMC meeting, Fed officials unanimously agreed to hold back on raising interest rates a second time after last month's pause in rate hiking. This move was widely expected and it most likely propelled a broad stock market rally into Wednesday. But Wall Street's enthusiasm also spilled over into today's trading as well with the DOW gaining over 500 points at the closing bell. Sometimes a rally into an anticipated decision or event can reverse and fall immediately after the event is over - the so-called "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon. But today's rally - a day after the rate pause was announced - seems to be contradicting that scenario. This seems especially odd since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his post meeting press conference yesterday said that refraining from a rate increase this month does not rule out future rate hikes, even the possibility of one more this year. He also mentioned that he was not satisfied with the current progress on curbing inflation and that current monetary policy may not be restrictive enough. Despite these hawkish comments, equities managed to stage a very healthy rally today.

We note that this rally is rising into the center of a very strong general reversal zone (Oct. 31 - Nov. 9). We also observe that the current medium-term cycles in all three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are almost certainly in a bearish trend - assuming our labeling is correct and their cycles began with their August lows. Since those lows, all three indices have made two consecutively lower sub-cycle lows. Normally this would project more corrective falling to the final cycle bottoms. Could a sudden "irrational exuberance" on Wall Street reverse the trend and turn it bullish? It's possible, but I'm not convinced this is happening - at least not yet.

Yes, I am concerned about our current short position in this market. We entered that position on Oct. 12. The DOW has now risen back to that entry point, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ haven't yet risen all the way back to their Oct. 12 levels. I am going to hold my short position for now and wait to see if this rally gains any momentum. To start looking bullish, the DOW would have to start closing above 34,148 (its high from Oct. 17) and the S&P 500 above its Oct. 17 high of 4,394. Until that happens, this market is highly vulnerable to another sharp turn down.

It's a bit too late for gold and silver to start a strong rally from any recent isolated lows. It looks more likely that we are getting a corrective downturn instead. In Monday's blog I wrote:

"There is a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals coming up Thursday (Nov. 2 - 14) as well as the strong general reversal zone mentioned above (Oct. 31 - Nov. 9). They overlap Nov. 2 - 9, so that would be an ideal time for a top in any gold and silver rally. We will watch for it. Alternatively, if prices start falling from here, we will be looking for a low (and possibly a buy spot) in that same time frame."

Well, right now it looks like we might be getting a low (and a possible buy spot) as we enter these two reversal zones. Let's stay on the sidelines and see if prices can go lower.

Crude oil prices seem to be finding support just above $80 (Dec. contract chart) today as they make a precise "double-bottom" to the Oct. 6 low of $80.20. That Oct. 6 low could be the start of a new medium-term cycle, but crude could also be in an older cycle that began with the $77.03 low on Aug. 24. In either case, the cycle's trend is in danger of turning bearish if it starts breaking below $80. We are nearing the end of a reversal zone specifically for crude (it ends on Friday), and also entering the center of a strong general reversal zone (discussed above from Oct. 21 - Nov. 9). A significant bottom could be forming here, but I'm going to hold off buying for now as there's still time for prices to go lower, and I'm concerned about them breaking below $80, especially since the ongoing Israel/Palestine war creates a volatile trading environment where prices can make sudden and unpredictable moves and break normal technical boundaries. We remain on the sidelines of crude for now.

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