The broad stock market moved down in today's early morning trading, then it rallied into the afternoon, but it finished the day back down. This demonstrates a nervous and indecisive market. Our sub-cycle corrective bottom is due this week, and our current reversal zone ends this Wednesday. We need to see this market turn up soon to confirm our view that equities will give us another significant rally into September (that may or may not make new all-time highs). The DOW and S&P 500 are approaching the lower end of our target ranges for a sub-cycle bottom (32,000 - 33,000 for the DOW, 4,000 - 4,200 for the S&P 500. and 12,400 - 12,700 for the NASDAQ), but the NASDAQ has fallen well below its target range. Because all three indices made new lows today, we will not get an intermarket bullish divergence signal this week (which we like to see at cycle and sub-cycle bottoms). We would like to see more signs of a sub-cycle bottom to buy by Wednesday, but if the DOW and S&P 500 also break below their target ranges, and these indices continue to fall past Wednesday, we will refrain from buying and will have to prepare for this medium-term cycle turning bearish. We are still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.
Gold and silver both made new weekly lows today, so the only way we will get a bullish divergence signal in this market this week is if silver moves below the start of its current medium term cycle (i.e. below its $18.15 low from July 14) without gold doing the same. Silver is close to doing that. Gold prices seem to be stabilizing around $1735 which is a comfortable distance from its medium-term cycle's starting point ($1681 on July 21). If this week's early general reversal zone (ending Wednesday) does not turn prices up, there is another short-term potential "turning point" for the precious metals on Thursday and Friday. We note that gold is still below its 15-day moving average. We need to see prices close above there soon to confirm this medium-term cycle is still bullish. Silver can also stay bullish as long as it doesn't break and close below its $18.15 low. We are now out of both metals, but we will watch carefully this week for potential buy spots in both gold and silver. We are currently on the sidelines of both metals,
The U.S. Dollar Index made a new high at 109.48 today, and that could be a double-top to its high from July 14 (109.29). This high is happening in the center of a reversal zone specifically for currencies (Aug. 23 - 31), so there's a good chance we could see a reversal back down now. If that happens, it would support a rally in the precious metals.
After Friday's corrective dip, crude oil prices rallied back strongly today, breaking above $95 and closing at $97.01 (October contract chart). While it's still possible for prices to make a new low by Sept. 6 (today's high is in the center of our general reversal zone), it seems more likely that the Aug. 16 low at $85.37 was the end of an old medium-term cycle and the start of a new one. If that's the case, we will wait for the next sub-cycle correction for a potential spot to buy. We are still on the sidelines of crude.