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Trading Blog          Thursday,  October 31,  2013

10/31/2013

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (6:15 pm EST)

The U.S. Federal Reserve gave a somewhat mixed message yesterday (Wednesday) that seems to have confused Wall Street.  The DOW was stable in the morning as most investors were anticipating the Fed would maintain its $85 billion monthly bond buying policy (i.e. continue quantitative easing or QE).  The Fed's statement in the afternoon did indeed confirm the continuation of QE, but it also stated that the U.S. economy was showing signs of "underlying strength".  Many investors thought this was the Fed hinting that it will be tapering its QE policy perhaps sooner than expected (maybe as early as December).  Because it had been assumed that any tapering would not begin until March of 2014, the ever skittish DOW dropped sharply in the afternoon about 100 points but then recovered a bit before closing the day with a 60 point loss.  The market continues to be indecisive today, dropping this morning, then recovering by mid afternoon, but dropping again and losing 73 points at the market close.  It is hard to say how long the DOW will be spooked by this "hint" of no more "candy" (QE) from the Fed (it is Halloween, after all), but momentum in the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ continues to be strongly bullish, so this "Bernanke effect" may just be transient (as it often is).  I am still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

It appears that the Fed's statement yesterday may have spooked the gold and silver markets as well.  Why?  Because continued QE means the government continues to create money out of thin air, which devalues the dollar and increases the value of gold (and silver).  Gold investors may therefore see the spectre of QE tapering as bad for gold prices.  (I might add here that even if the U.S. Fed suddenly becomes fiscally responsible and tapers -which I don't think is going to happen- there are other more important global reasons for gold and silver prices to rise now, and the long-term bullish picture in precious metals would remain intact.)   In terms of technical analysis gold has not dropped below the area of support at $1300-1310, although silver has breached the $22 level I wanted to see hold (closing at $21.95).  Silver tends to be much more volatile than gold and I am therefore going to use gold's behavior as the key indicator here for stop loss.  Momentum signals in gold and (especially) in silver charts are still strongly bullish today. Also several financial analysts I follow are recommending today's prices as good buy spots for the precious metals.  For these reasons I am continuing to hold my long position in both gold and silver today.

The U.S. Dollar Index
spiked up today, which is in line with the above discussion of how QE tapering (or in this case the "suggestion" of QE tapering) is good for the U.S. Dollar.  A rising dollar is usually bad news for gold (although this isn't always the case and the dollar and gold can rise together) and this at least partially accounts for gold's drop today.  That said, directional momentum in the U.S. Dollar is still strongly bearish, so this rise may be just a short-term reaction to the Fed's statements.  There are many financial analysts now who feel the Federal Reserve is just bluffing when it hints at tapering QE and that they do this to create an image of being fiscally responsible when in fact they have no intention of tapering as they know this will collapse the stock market.  If this is true, we can count on infinite QE to help propel gold and silver prices into a long-term upward trajectory.

Crude oil charts continue to give mixed bullish and bearish signals.  A support level seems to be developing at $96  which suggests a rally from here, but other ambiguous signals make this market too difficult to call at the moment.  Still out of this market.

Trading Blog          Monday,  October 28,  2013

10/28/2013

 
GOLD AND SILVER TRADE ALERT  (2:45 pm EST)

Gold and silver prices have been quite stable today, and I am going to take the plunge and go long in both metals.  All of the bullish factors I outlined in last night's blog are still in place, and even if prices correct down a bit more this week, it will probably be minimal.  I am going to set a stop loss on this trade for gold around $1310 and for silver around $22.  We are close to these levels now so our risk/reward ratio is good.  I would like to point out that I am still trading the precious metals short-term until I am more certain that the final bottoms in gold and silver's long-term cycles are in.  That said, there is the potential here for a rally that could reach the $1500 level in gold and the $27 level in silver before any serious correction.  Going long today in both gold and silver. 
 

I am still standing aside the broad stock market and crude oil until directional signals are more clear.

Trading Blog          Sunday (night),  October 27,  2013

10/26/2013

 
GOLD AND SILVER UPDATE  (11:15 pm EST)

The main purpose of this update is to alert traders to the "golden opportunity" that is setting up in the precious metals right now.  Regular readers of this blog know that I have been watching the gold and silver markets over the last three weeks for an opportunity to go long but have been hesitating because of ambiguous technical signals.  Last week saw the appearance of several important bullish signals and signs in the charts of these metals, so it looks like we are now at a good juncture to go long again in gold and silver.  Here are some major points to consider:

***Last week directional momentum in silver turned 100% bullish and gold shifted from 100% bearish to mixed bullish and bearish.  These were both major shifts indicating an immediate underlying bullishness in the precious metals. 

***Also last week the charts of the two major gold and silver mining company stock indices (HUI and XAU) showed major shifts in a bullish direction, and several gold mining ETFs flashed significant bullish signals.  As I've mentioned before on the site, gold mining stocks often lead the price of gold itself, so this is more evidence of a bullish trend developing. 

***Blog readers who are familiar with technical analysis may have recognized a major inverted head and shoulders pattern that has been developing in the price chart of gold since May and is approaching completion now as prices approach the neckline resistance a little above $1400.  A clear break through that line would be very bullish for gold.

***We are now starting new medium-term cycles in both gold and silver which is at least short-term bullish.  We may have already started the long-term cycles in these metals, but we still need more time to confirm this.  (There is still the possibility of gold and silver breaking below their June lows and forming a final low over the next several months, but this is seeming less likely now, at least in the short-term, as the short and medium-term picture is turning bullish).

***In recent blogs I've mentioned the likely manipulation of gold prices this month by some major banks selling large amounts of gold (800,000 ounces at a time) on COMEX to keep the price of gold down.  I got this information from internet financial blogs, and I think the wide exposure of this alleged manipulation on the web could act now to push prices up as investors realize this was done to contain an underlying bullishness in the market.  The alleged manipulators (who did these transactions in clandestine fashion on overnight markets) may also be reluctant to do it again (at least for awhile) since they have been so exposed.

I am tempted to issue a gold/silver buy alert tonight, but both metals are short-term overbought and approaching areas of resistance, so I am going to wait and see if they back off a bit for a better entry point (which could be as soon as tomorrow). 



Trading Blog          Friday,  October 25,  2013

10/25/2013

 
BRIEF END OF WEEK UPDATE (2:00 pm EST)

There have been no major changes in the broad stock market and the crude oil market since Wednesday's blog.  The DOW is testing resistance in the 15,540 area and still has not made a new high.  Momentum is still mixed bullish and bearish in the DOW.

There have been some significant new bullish developments in the precious metals this week which I will discuss a little more in a blog on Sunday after looking over the charts a bit more.  It is looking like a good time to go long again in gold and silver, perhaps as early as this weekend (i.e. before the markets open on Monday), so I may post a trade alert (buy alert) on Sunday's blog.

Trading Blog         Wednesday,  October 23,  2013

10/23/2013

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (3:15 pm EST)

The markets were quite active yesterday (Tuesday), and this was at least partly due to the release of the U.S. jobs report for last month which was weaker than expected.  This slowdown in job creation means the Fed will likely refrain from scaling back its easy money policy (QE) until next year.  Wallstreet, of course, was cheered by this news and the stock market (which has become addicted to regular doses of QE) showed its approval with a 75 point rally in the DOW.  A continuous flow of QE, however, is not healthy for the economy, and the stock market's enthusiasm for this desperate Federal Reserve tactic demonstrates how out of touch it can be with real economic conditions.  Indeed, what is good here for Wall Street (more QE) is bad for Main Street (more unemployment).

Over the next three weeks all financial markets may be prone to frequent changes in direction and may give false trading signals that don't pan out.  This is due to a configuration in financial astrology known as "mercury retrograde", and we therefore need to be especially careful when establishing trade positions.

Yesterday the DOW chart flashed an important bullish momentum signal and is now mixed bullish and bearish.  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both continue to be 100% bullish, so the overall directional momentum for the broad stock market is at least short-term bullish, and we may see the DOW reach for another all-time high soon.  However, there are other technical, cycle and timing factors still pointing to an imminent significant correction in this market, and despite the upward momentum, I think it is a little late to be going long on what has been a steep rally over the last two weeks.  All three indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are now approaching resistance zones, and I am going to wait and see if these can contain the current rally.  If so, we may start to see a reversal down from these points.  Still out of this market.

The promise of more QE (which is bad for the economy) was also liked by gold and silver yesterday (if economies collapse, gold prices soar) and both metals rallied strongly.  Momentum in silver is now 100% bullish, but despite its strong surge up, gold remains 100% bearish.  This means that directional momentum between these two metals is diametrically opposed at the moment and cautions us to remain on the sidelines.  We are also in a time period (which started last week and is over at the end of this week) when the likelihood of precious metals making a significant reversal is higher than normal.  Both metals are now approaching areas of strong resistance (gold at
$1350 -$1425 and silver at $23- $25), so if gold and silver are going to turn down again this would be a good place and time to do it.  That said, there is still the potential now for an explosive breakout rally so we want to keep a watchful eye on those resistance zones.  Still on the sidelines here.

Crude oil has broken its support just above $100 and, unlike the broad stock market, is falling steeply this week.  As these two markets usually move together, this may not bode well for the DOW.  Momentum in the crude charts is still mixed bullish and bearish, however, so the medium and longer-term direction is still not clear.  The cycle picture for crude is also unclear at the moment, but it is possible that a new cycle bottom is forming with this current correction, and if so, the market could start to turn very bullish as a new cycle begins.  We will watch for evidence of this in momentum and other technical signals.  Out of this market for now.

I haven't dicussed the U.S. Dollar in my blog for some time, but it is clear to anyone looking at the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index that it has been breaking down since July.  Directional momentum in the dollar has been 100% bearish over the last month.  Not surprisingly, the most recent downleg of this correction was kicked off by a huge gap down in the index on October 17, the day after Washington's 11th hour "resolution" of the U.S. fiscal budget, suggesting global disapproval of the way our leaders are handling the U.S. economy.  (China's rating agency Dagong downgraded its U.S. sovereign credit rating that day).  So where is the dollar going from here?  There is important and critical support for the U.S. Dollar Index at  78-79.  The index is testing this area now, and if it breaks, the dollar could be in big trouble.  Many financial analysts that I follow feel this support will hold and the U.S. Dollar will recover from here.  I am therefore staying in the bullish camp for now (with a watchful eye on that support zone). 

Trading Blog          Thursday,  October 17,  2013

10/17/2013

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (3:15 pm EST)

Well, it looks like the big chess game in Washington is over (for now), the stalemate has broken and the Democrats (and President Obama) are the winners.  The House and Senate were able to pass a bill to fund and reopen the government (through Jan. 15, 2014), raise the debt ceiling (through Feb. 7, 2014), and to "cleanly" fund Obamacare (at least until Jan. 15).  For the Democrats it was clearly "winner take all" as the bill makes no substantial changes to the president's healthcare law, and the debt limit was raised without any of the budget cutting the Republicans wanted to see.  Even though this round of chess playing is over, both Republicans and Democrats are now engaged in a new game that has always been immensely popular on Capitol Hill.  It's called "kick the can".  As is obvious from the dates mentioned above, none of the conflicts in this recent crisis have been resolved but have instead been postponed until early next year.  When that time comes, party tensions will likely flare again.

The emotionally driven (and shortsighted) broad stock market loved yesterday's news, and the DOW rallied over 200 points by the end of the day.  It may soon become apparent, however, even to the most dimwitted investor that none of the fiscal problems debated so hotly in Congress over the last few weeks have been fixed and that raising the debt ceiling without cutting the budget is probably not such a great thing for the overall health of the economy.  That said, the DOW is frequently prone to bursts of irrational exuberance (that may sometimes be assisted by market manipulators) so we can't rule out a strong rally from here.  Momentum in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ has switched back to 100% bullish over the last two days, but the DOW remains 100% bearish.  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are also both making new highs while the DOW is not.  If this persists we may have a situation known as intermarket  divergence which in this case is bearish.  On the other hand, if the DOW's momentum follows the lead of its two brothers and turns bullish, we could see it rally strongly and break to new highs as well.  I am going to wait for these technical indicators to resolve their ambiguity before deciding what direction to trade in this market.  Still on the sidelines here.

Gold and silver
rallied strongly today as precious metal investors likely realize the negative economic implications of raising the debt ceiling without budget cuts.  Today gold broke and closed over $1300 and silver briefly broke over $22 (but closed below at $21.80).  While this is bullish, we have to be careful here because over the last three weeks there has been evidence of the price of gold being manipulated down whenever it attempts to clear that $1300 level.  As I've mentioned in recent blogs, the purpose of suppressing gold prices right now could be to discourage panic selling in the broad stock market.  Directional momentum remains unchanged in the precious metals (gold is still very bearish while silver is mixed bullish and bearish) so I am not ready to go long yet, but I will probably be buying soon.  On the sidelines for now.

Crude oil
rallied on yesterday's news of "fiscal resolution" in Washington but dropped steeply today, and prices are closing below $101.  Crude is testing support here (which could extend down to $100) and momentum is still mixed (bullish and bearish).  Any clear break below support would likely indicate a more severe correction taking place.  As with the other markets right now, I am going to stay on the sidelines until I see stronger directional momentum.

Trading Blog             Tuesday (early AM),  October 15,  2013

10/14/2013

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (4:30 am EST)

We are now in the 15th day of a partial U.S. government shutdown, and last week's optimism that had suggested Republicans and Democrats were near an agreement to end the stalemate on government funding and especially the raising of the debt ceiling has faded as both sides continue to be unwilling to make any compromises in their positions.  With the deadline to raise the debt ceiling coming up this Thursday, the focus of the crisis has shifted away from the funding/nonfunding of Obamacare and is now centered on the spending cuts Republicans say are necessary before the debt ceiling can be raised (to avoid a U.S. government default).  It should be noted here that if the debt limit is not raised by Thursday, a U.S. government default would not happen right away but would probably occur by the end of the month when the Treasury runs out of cash to pay interest and principle on Treasury securities. This delay could give Congress a little more time to increase the debt limit.  While investors may be acclimating to the partial government shutdown and the on hold status of Obamacare funding, the threat of a government debt default is a much more serious concern.  If this happens it will create enormous economic uncertainty (which we know the stock market does not like) and will have a major negative impact on the economy.

The broad stock market was up a bit yesterday, but technically nothing has changed since Friday.  The DOW's directional momentum is nearly 100% bearish while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts appear to be mixed bearish and bullish.  I am remaining on the sidelines until directional signals are more clear (from the market as well as from Congress).

It appears that last week gold prices were manipulated down again by someone selling 800,000 ounces of gold on COMEX while the New York markets were closed.  Prices had been stabilizing above $1300 earlier in the week, but by Friday they were pushed down close to $1250.  (A similar market manipulation occurred on Oct. 1, the first day of the  government shutdown, when gold broke its $1300 support and dropped nearly $50.)  So it is possible there are some people in high places who wish to keep gold prices from taking off right now (perhaps to discourage panic selling in the broad stock market due to the ongoing fiscal crisis in Washington).  This is certainly unsettling for market timers like myself who rely on technical signals and timing cycles based on the "normal" flow of free market trading.  That said, there is likely a limit to how often such manipulatons can be done and how long prices can be suppressed before more powerful market forces reassert themselves and propel prices in the direction they want to go.  As I've been mentioning in my blogs for some time, there are many technical, cycle and timing factors that are now pointing to a long-term bullishness in both gold and silver.  Shorter term, however, we need to be concerned with a bottom forming in both metals.  Momentum remains strongly bearish for gold but mixed (bullish and bearish) for silver.  We are moving into a significant time window over the next nine days when gold and silver prices can make a significant reversal in direction.  If prices continue lower into the end of the week, we could see them reverse up and start a strong rally.  Of course, like all the markets right now, this market's behavior will be taking at least some of its cues from Washington's fiscal debate (and perhaps from market manipulators as well), so I am remaining on the sidelines to await further developments on Capitol Hill.

 Crude oil also remains relatively unchanged since last Friday, and it too is apparently waiting for Washington's next move.  Momentum remains mostly bearish in crude, so the lack of a resolution to the debt ceiling impasse could easily send this market tumbling down.  We will have to wait and see.  Support around $101-$102 seems to be holding.  Still on the sidelines of this market.

Trading Blog          Friday,  October 11,  2013

10/11/2013

 
BRIEF MARKETS UPDATE  (2:45 pm EST)

There are no changes to my market positions today (still out of all markets).

The stalemate in Washington appears to be breaking as talks finally begin on the debt ceiling and the government shutdown.  As expected, this glimmer of hope for a resolution to the fiscal crisis is sparking a vigorous rally on Wall Street, but, as with all sudden and emotionally driven rallies, it should be viewed with caution.  Despite the rally, momentum in the DOW chart is remaining strongly bearish.

The sudden optimism in the broad stock market is sending the price of gold and silver lower today, and although silver seems to be holding above $21, gold has broken below $1300 and is closing today near $1270.  We may be seeing the bearish scenario I described in Wednesday's blog unfolding here, and, if so, we will be looking to go long at the final bottom of the correction. 

Trading Blog        Wednesday,  October 9,  2013

10/9/2013

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (7:30 pm EST)

Unbelievably, the stalemate in Washington continues unabated into its 9th day with apparently no signs of Republicans or Democrats weakening their positions, even as the Oct. 17 deadline to raise the debt ceiling rapidly approaches. 

The broad stock market has been demonstrating how much it dislikes uncertainty (as well as the prospect of a U.S. debt default) by falling heavily this week.  A significant development in the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ charts over the last two days has been the appearance of major bearish momentum signals.  Directional momentum in the DOW is now 100% bearish and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are medium-term bearsh.  For the last 5 weeks all three indices have been 100% bullish, so this represents a sudden and dramatic shift of momentum downwards and is not a good sign for the broad stock market.  That said, we need to keep in mind here the highly volatile nature of the markets right now as every day they wait with "bated breath" for the next move of the chess players on Capitol Hill.  A sudden agreement or bargain between Republicans and Democrats could easily stop the falling DOW in its tracks and kick off a strong counter rally.  Such an agreement seems unlikely at the moment, but the stakes in this political chess game become much higher as we approach Oct.17th, and so it could happen by the middle of next week.  Needless to say, calling the market is very difficult under these circumstances.  There is important support for the DOW around 14,500, and a close below there would increase the likelihood of a very severe correction in the market.  Today's low was at 14,719, but the DOW closed the day above 14,800 with a gain of 26 points, so we have not breached that 14,500 level yet.  Based on the the bearish momentum, we should be looking to sell this market short, but the possibility of a break in the Washington stalemate by next Thursday makes me hesitant to do so right now.  I would also like to see the DOW's 100% bearish signal confirmed by stronger bearish signals in the SP 500 and NASDAQ charts before committing fully to a short position.  Remaining on the sidelines of this market for now, but possibly looking to short this market soon.

Gold and silver prices rallied a bit Monday and Tuesday but today lost those gains.  This indecisiveness is likely mirroring the stalemate in Washington, and so, as with the broad stock market, we can expect any developments on Capitol Hill to give a directional kick to this market as well.  But in what direction?  As I've discussed in previous blogs, gold and silver seem to be at the end of a long-term cycle that should bottom by the end of this year (this window may extend slightly into 2014), and this bottom will mark the beginning of a new cycle which will be bullish for at least several years.  The bottoms may already be in with gold's June 27th low at $1183 and silver's low at $18.25, but technical and cycle data has not confirmed this yet.  There is still time for these metals to make a lower bottom (or perhaps a double bottom) over the next several months.  If political events (or even the manipulation of gold prices) force gold and silver below their supports now, we could see this scenario unfold.  So we need not question whether or not we want to buy gold and silver (we do), but do we want to buy now or wait for a possible deeper correction?  At the moment directional momentum in gold is 100% bearish while silver is maybe 50% bearish and 50% bullish.  This downward momentum as well as the uncertainty of Washington politics and the raising of the U.S. debt ceiling does not give me much confidence to go long yet.  I am therefore remaining on the sidelines until I see some momentum shift and/or some break in the Washington stalemate.

Crude oil prices seem to have stabilized just above a support zone at $100-$102.  Like the other markets, crude is likely taking its cues from Washington's stalemate and is poised to rally or fall depending on how this situation is resolved (or not resolved).  Crude prices dropped steeply today but remain above support, and momentum continues to be mixed (bullish and bearish).  Traders need to keep in mind that should the broad stock market start to collapse, crude would probably go with it (unless conflicts erupt in the Middle East), and we would probably be looking to sell this market short.   Still out of this market for now.

Trading Blog          Monday,  October 7,  2013

10/7/2013

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (2:00 pm EST)

Most of my trading decisions on the website are based primarily on information from technical analysis and cycle studies, and usually I only give secondary attention to political and economic news events that may impact the financial markets.   The recent news, however, concerning the funding of Obamacare, the shutdown of the U.S. government, and the looming debt ceiling crisis are all weighing very heavily on the markets now.  How these events unfold over the next several weeks will likely be a major factor impacting at least short and medium-term market direction.   The budget battle and the government shutdown is now in its 7th day, and it appears that all sides are digging in their heels and refusing to budge.  Republicans, Democrats and the President all seem unwilling to compromise their positions.  While this stalemate over Obamacare funding and the government shutdown could continue, many analysts at the moment feel that there will likely be some compromise by Democrats giving in to budget cutting that does not affect Obamacare in order to coax Republicans into allowing the debt ceiling to be raised.  All the players in this political chess game are aware of the serious negative impact a default on the U.S. debt would have on the economy and financial markets.  Congress may therefore be less willing to continue their gridlock as we get closer to the October 17th deadline for the debt ceiling.  At that time we will see if either side will compromise to avoid a U.S. debt default.

After a fairly steep correction over the last two weeks, the DOW is now pausing in a support zone around 14,900 -15,000.  The chart for the DOW is showing a mixture of bull and bear indicators, but momentum is still mostly bullish (as it is for the S&P 500 and especially the NASDAQ) so a rally could commence now from the current support level, especially if a compromise is reached soon by Congress on the issues discussed above.  On the other hand, continued congressional gridlock might discourage the markets this week and cause them to break down and move into a deeper correction.  If the DOW breaks below 14,500, the correction could start to get very serious.  The bottom line here is that the broad stock market seems to be at a major turning point for either a strong rally or a deeper correction, and the direction it takes will likely depend on how Washington resolves (or doesn't resolve) its fiscal problems.  I am tempted to go long here because of the ongoing strong bullish momentum in the charts, but I want to see at least some indication of a break in Washington gridlock before committing to such a position.  If the gridlock continues and this market starts to break down, I may decide to sell short.  I am undecided at the moment and am going to remain on the sidelines while watching the political situation unfold a bit more.

Gold and silver
prices are also resting at support levels (around $1300 in gold and $21 in silver) but, unlike the broad stock market, current momentum in these metals is somewhat bearish (especially in gold).  But there are some bullish indicators in the precious metal charts as well, and the rally we have been anticipating for the last several weeks could commence from this point.  It appears that this market is also waiting to take its cue from Washington events.  How will this market react to a continuing congressional stalemate or to a resolution of the crisis?  This is a good question because the government shutdown on Oct.1 seemed to send gold and silver prices tumbling (and stopped us out).  It has been reported by several gold analysts, however, that precious metal prices were manipulated down that day to deter potential panic selling in the broad stock market due to the government shutdown.  (The logic behind this manipulation supposedly was to show investors that the shutdown is no big deal because a falling gold price usually indicates confidence in the stock market).  It may have worked as the DOW was remarkably stable on Oct. 1, but it fell for the rest of the week so the effect may have been short-lived.  My main point here is that we shouldn't assume that more congressional stalemating or even the breakdown of equity markets will bring down the precious metals.  Despite the possible manipulation of gold prices (which is a "wild card" factor we will now have to deal with), there are many reasons for gold and silver to rally if the broad stock market starts to break down.  That said, the bearish momentum in both the gold and silver charts at the moment is enough to keep me on the sidelines today.  I would like to see some change in this momentum before going long again.  A close above last week's high in gold would also be an encouraging bullish signal.  Still on the sidelines of this market.

The crude oil market is in much the same situation as the broad stock market.  It seems poised to rally from a support level around $101- $102 but is potentially vulnerable to a deeper correction should that support break down.  As with all the markets now, the direction crude prices take will likely be dictated by Washington's chess game.  Directional momentum in crude is mixed bullish and bearish so I am remaining on the sidelines here.
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The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.