The Alternative Investor
                   Providing Analysis and Trading Strategies for the
                      Broad Stock Market,  Gold & Silver,  Crude Oil
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                     Last Trading Blog: Tuesday, April 22, 2025
                                                 

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​***IMPORTANT "CRASH" UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET ***

**IMPORTANT UPDATE 8/1/2024**
We are still anticipating a very significant longer-term cycle top in stock markets soon. According to many technical indicators and cycle studies, a STRONG correction in the broad stock market is imminent. Last year we speculated that a final top most likely had already happened in early January 2022 in the DOW and S&P 500 and in late November 2021 in the NASDAQ with what were all-time highs in those indices. However, all three indices broke through those highs early this year and continue to make new highs into this month (July, 2024).  

Please note that in October 2022 the DOW had dropped 22% from its all-time high, the S&P 500 had dropped 28%, and the NASDAQ had dropped a whopping 38% from its all-time high. Those dramatic corrections in a 10 month time span were consistent with the first stages of a very big longer-term correction. Long-term corrections typically progress in waves - i.e. deep plunges punctuated by temporary relief rallies. The "relief" wave up from those October 2022 lows has been unusually long, and it has now pushed all three of these indices to new all-time highs. This is highly unusual, but does it mean that the big correction is over? Maybe, but not necessarily.

We could be witnessing a "blow-off" top in equity markets that is breaking or at least distorting the normal parameters of our cycle analysis. That means that a major correction in this market is still very possible (if not probable), although it MAY not be as severe as we had originally expected (i.e we had predicted as much as a 90% drop). I am emphasizing the word "may" here because a very severe crash is still possible. 

We will be updating and revising our analysis of this unusual market as it progresses. Right now it appears that equities could be bullish at least into the summer. After that, we will be watching for another big corrective drop.
(UPDATE 10/22/24 :  Right now it looks like equities could be bullish into early 2025 before any serious correction down begins.)

PLEASE CHECK THE TRADING BLOG FOR CURRENT UPDATES.




**IMPORTANT GOLD UPDATES** 

 (UPDATE 8/1/24)   Gold most likely completed the end of a long-term 23 year cycle on September 28, 2022 with its low at $1616. (That 23-year cycle began with a double bottom low in 1999 and 2001 around $280 that then soared to $2070 in Aug. 2020. That $2070 high was the peak of the 23 year cycle. From that high gold then fell to $1677 in March 2021. It then rallied back to $2066 on March 8, 2022, essentially making a "double-top" to the $2070 high before falling again to the final bottom of $1616 in September 2022.).

Gold prices made a "double-bottom" with two lows on Sept. 28, 2022 ($1616) and Nov. 3, 2022 ($1617), and prices have been rallying strongly from there. Because it is still early in this new 23-year cycle, the long-term outlook for gold is bullish. Nevertheless, there are shorter-term cycles that we need to follow as no stock or commodity rises up in a straight line, and we will be analyzing these cycles for ideal spots to buy. I am also concerned about the possibility of a dramatic sell-off in the broad stock market adversely affecting the price of gold (as it did in 2008-2008).

For those who would argue that a major crash in the broad stock market would kick up the price of gold, I would point out the fact that during the early phase of the 2008-2009 "crash" in equities, gold prices plummeted with the stock market as many investors fled to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven investment.

The same thing might happen again if the current stock market bubble bursts and takes a major correction. The U.S. Dollar Index soared to a new 20 year high ($115) in September 2022. The dollar has corrected down from that high but could be ready to rebound back up to challenge or exceed $115.

Of course, after equity markets bottomed in early 2009, gold prices rocketed right back up and made a 170% gain by Aug. 2011 as people realized the value of precious metals in a global economy based on fiat currency.

​(UPDATE 1/28/25) Shorter term, gold most likely made a 1-year cycle bottom on November 14 at $2541. This means prices should be bullish into the first half of 2025.

PLEASE CHECK THE TRADING BLOG FOR CURRENT UPDATES.

                  ATTENTION ALL INVESTORS AND TRADERS:

Are you worried about instability and volatility in the stock market and commodity markets and how it may affect your investments?

The Alternative Investor monitors and analyzes the Stock Market (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) and the price of Gold, Silver and Crude Oil on a daily basis (see the TRADING BLOG and Current Positions tabs at the top of the page) utilizing a unique collection of  cycle studies, technical analysis, and information resources that keeps you up to the minute on what these markets are doing.  With this information, "crashes" can be side stepped and even turned into profit with short selling.

The main feature of this website is the TRADING BLOG.   On this blog I indicate when I make trades in the specific markets mentioned above.   I subscribe to several financial market newsletters and websites and spend over 20 hours/week studying and analyzing this data to make the trading decisions I post on the blog.  Please note that I am a conservative trader.  I am investing my own savings and retirement money with these trades, so I do not take them lightly.  I do not make wild, high risk speculations on the markets.  Nevertheless, investing in commodities and the stock market does involve some risk, and at times some loss of capital is always possible and even inevitable when one is actively trading.  The goal is to have the gains greatly outweigh the losses over time.

Dec. 2012 - I am launching this slightly abridged version of the website right now because I feel it is important that investors and traders be aware of what is going on with the markets during this potentially dangerous "fiscal cliff" and sequester budget transition period.  My original plan was to set the site up with a free one month trial and then a subscription fee to access the TRADING BLOG.  I am now just going to post the TRADING BLOG for free over the next several months or so (until we are past the fiscal cliff) as an open blog to anyone who's interested.  I will set up subscription access later (with the ongoing free trial) for those who find this information useful for trading and investing and would like continued access.  Welcome aboard!  We are going to try and navigate the fiscal cliff without falling off!
(UPDATE 9/3/2019 - Wow, we made it through the "fiscal cliff" and sequester crisis from the Obama years, and almost 7 years later I'm still here posting my blog (still free - for now) as a much bigger potential crisis looms, i.e. a MAJOR correction ("crash") in the broad stock market. Not to worry. Rest assured that we will not be caught unawares if and when this happens. We are at high risk for this correction from now through 2022. (UPDATE 10/22/24 - The COVID crisis was a "black swan" event (i.e. unexpected) that triggered a massive stimulus from the Federal government. This government intervention has most likely delayed a severe correction in equity markets, but it is now essentially over, and the "bubble" is still there. Cycles may be distorted by market interventions, but they usually still play out.  It is unclear at the moment if a severe crash (i.e. up to 90%) has been averted. Nevertheless, a substantial correction of AT LEAST 16% - 26% is due sometime in mid to late 2025. Until then, the broad stock market looks bullish. Stay tuned for further updates of this unusual market!).