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Trading Blog        Friday, Dec. 28, 2012

12/28/2012

 
"FISCAL CLIFF" and MARKETS UPDATE (3:00 pm EST)

It looks like the "fiscal cliff" jitters are keeping the stock market down but not causing it to break down (at least not yet).  Some bearish sell signals are just starting to appear in the NASDAQ but not yet in the DOW or S&P 500 indices.  We will therefore continue to stand aside the broad stock market today and wait for a stronger sell (or buy) signal in the new year.

We are maintaining our short positions in gold for now but are still standing aside silver as there is some ambiguity in the precious metal markets at this time.  (All of the markets may very well be waiting until after the new year to make any decisive moves). 

Crude oil is also looking very ambiguous right now with mixed bullish and bearish signals, so we continue to stand aside this market.

The Swiss Franc has been very bullish over the last several weeks but is due for a major correction soon.   Our strategy here will be to stay out of this currency for now and wait for the correction.  (Note that we do not trade this market short-term - see Alternative Investor Strategy page.)


Wishing a Happy NEW YEAR to all the blog readers!

Trading Blog     Friday, Dec.7, 2012

12/27/2012

 
TRADE ALERT:   I have decided to bail out of our short positions in the broad stock market.  We are getting strong short-term bullish signals right now and unfortunately the risk of further loss is too great to "ride out" in my opinion.  We will still be looking to short this market as the long-term picture of the broad stock market is horrible and the "fiscal cliff" crisis is still casting a dark shadow over the start of the new year.  We will therefore wait on the sidelines for now and watch carefully for a stronger sell signal.  Hopefully, we can recoup our loss (and then some) on the next downside move. ( A less likely scenario would see the stock market rally very strongly into the start of 2013.  If this happens we may go long if the right bullish signals appear; but even this kind of surge would likely be followed by a severe correction in early 2013 - according to many of the sources I study.)

Trading Blog     Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2012

12/27/2012

 
TRADE ALERT:  Gold is breaking some major support today and is giving sell signals so we are going to sell short gold today anticipating a significant correction.  Silver may follow suit, but sell signals are not as strong as they are for gold so we will stay out of silver for today.

I know we are still in the red with our short broad stock market positions, but I am maintaining these positions because the bearish factors still outweigh the bullish in this market right now.  This may change shortly, however, as prices are currently challenging the stop loss points in my analyses.  Stay tuned as we may need to bail out of these short positions quickly and try to recoup the loss with a strategy based on the new trend that emerges.

Trading Blog Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2012 

12/27/2012

 
TRADE ALERT :  We are going to take a small short-term profit on our silver positions now as sell signals are appearing and timing factors indicate a potential correction down.  We bought these knowing they would be a short-term trade and will now sell them and stand aside the silver (and gold) markets and see how they behave.  Gold and silver are very tricky right now and could either take a substantial correction here or break to new highs.  We will therefore stay on the sidelines and observe until the direction is more clear.

We are maintaining our short positions in the broad stock market in spite of its recent rallying as most of the indicators I study are still strongly bearish for this market.  Investor jitters about the impending "fiscal cliff" are also a bearish influence at this time.

Our cautious approach to crude oil continues as the surge up from last week has quickly lost all of its gain proving  again how volatile oil prices can be during conflicts in the Middle East.  We will continue to stand aside this market for now.

Trading Blog Monday, Nov. 19, 2012

12/27/2012

 
TRADE ALERT :  We are going to reinstate 1/2 of our long positions in silver after having sold them last Thursday.  There are very strong short-term bullish signals appearing now for silver (and gold) and it is thought there is a good chance of a short but significant rally here.  We will still be carefully watching to sell short this market, probably within the next two weeks, if strong bear signals appear.

The broad stock market rallied strongly today and may rise into the holiday (this is typical holiday week behavior) but we are holding our short positions as the bearish signals are still very strong.  We are also in a time period when market prices can be very erratic (this ends Nov. 27) so sudden rallies may not get very far before turning down again.

Speaking of sudden rallies, crude oil prices jumped up almost $2.00 today on the news of escalating conflicts in the Middle East.  As mentioned in our last blog post, war in the Middle East can be a wild card that interferes with our normal technical analysis of the price of oil.  Because technical signals are still mostly bearish, we continue to stand aside this market for now.

Trading Blog Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012

12/27/2012

 
TRADE ALERT : We are selling our long positions in silver today without much profit as there could be a risk of the precious metals going down if the broad stock market tanks (this is what happened in the 2008-2009 crash).  We may even sell gold or silver short over the next few days if we get the appropriate signals for this, but for now we are standing aside gold and silver.

The broad stock market today gave more strong bearish technical signals that would indicate a major correction is underway.  We sold this market short yesterday and are holding these positions.

While crude oil could go down with the broad stock market, there are some bullish factors at the moment that may cause the price to rise short-term and so we are standing aside this market for now.  (Note that because of political tensions in the Middle East right now, the price of oil could become extremely volatile and make sudden jumps up or down independant of any technical analysis we apply - another reason to be especially cautious and careful with this market).

We are still standing aside the Swiss Franc as its value corrects downward.  This bottom is imminent and we'll then be looking to go long in this currency.

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All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.