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Trading Blog Thursday (evening), March 31, 2022

3/31/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (10:00 pm EDST)

After a bullish "gap-up" on Tuesday, all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) have been edging back down a bit. We enter a new strong reversal zone next week (April 4 - April 20). If these indices fall into this time frame, we will watch for support near those targets that I suggested in my last blog for a modest correction (around 33,600 in the DOW, 4,300 in the S&P 500, and 13,500 in the NASDAQ). If these target areas hold, they could be good buy spots for another rally to challenge the all-time highs in these indices. If instead we see a rally into the new reversal zone, we may have to wait a little longer for a corrective drop from a top in this time frame to those targets.

We should note here that it's still possible that the all-time highs in November (NASDAQ) and January (DOW and S&P 500) are the final long-term cycle tops, and that a severe long-term cycle correction is already underway. A rally to challenge those highs over the next several weeks would question that, and a clear break to new all-time highs by ALL THREE indices would suggest that a severe correction has been averted. We will remain on the sidelines for now and watch for a possible buy spot in those target areas.

In Monday's blog on gold and silver, I mentioned that we are nearing the end of the current medium-term cycles in both metals and that we are seeing a final sub-cycle rally in these cycles before the final sharp drop to the cycle bottom. I wrote:

"We were planning on selling short at the sub-cycle top around $2050 in gold and $26.50 in silver, but we may not get to do that if the corrections have already started from last week's tops. Let's wait and see if prices can push higher and closer to our targets this week or next and perhaps give us a bearish divergence signal (gold or silver making a new high without the other). That would be an ideal signal to sell short."

Well, prices dropped dramatically in both metals on Monday and Tuesday but recovered a bit yesterday and today. The final tops to these medium-term cycles may already be in with the highs from earlier this month, and prices may be headed south now. If prices can rally from here into next week's reversal zone, we might still get a chance to sell short if one metal makes a new high without the other (bearish divergence). Otherwise, we will just wait for the final cycle bottoms which could end up in this reversal zone or another one specifically for gold and silver coming up April 12 - 20. We will remain on the sidelines of the precious metals for now.

Crude oil prices continued their roller coaster ride this week with large surges up and down. Because of the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war, crude prices are very volatile, and this is an unsafe market to trade at the moment. President Biden today ordered the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day from the nation's strategic petroleum reserve for six months to help curb rising fuel prices. This caused crude prices to drop significantly, but of course, they may not stay down considering the volatile nature of the market right now. As I stated in Monday's blog, we are waiting for the final bottom in crude's current and old medium-term cycle with a target around $85 - $90. That bottom might be a good spot to buy. We also can't rule out another surge up before the final bottom. We will remain on the sidelines of crude for now.

Trading Blog Monday (late night), March 28, 2022

3/28/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (11:30 pm EDST)

In my 3/9/22 broad stock market "CRASH UPDATE" on the Home Page I wrote:

"It is likely that the first stage down in this potential long-term correction would be completed by the end of March 2022. If that correction is less than 20%, there is a chance the market will recover from there and not collapse any further.
But if the first stage down exceeds 20%, we could be on course for a crash of 70 - 90% over the next 10 years. If severe, it could bottom as soon as 2024."

We are now in the last week of March. Unless equity markets plummet sharply now and over the next week or two, it looks like the corrective bottom could be in with the Feb. 24 lows of 32,272 in the DOW and 4,116 in the S&P 500, and the March 14 low of 12,555 in the NASDAQ (a double-bottom to the Feb. 24 low at 12,598). These lows represent a 12% drop in the DOW, a 14% drop in the S&P 500, and a 22% drop in the NASDAQ.

So the "first stage down" may have happened with only the NASDAQ exceeding a 20% loss - and only by a small margin. Does this mean we have avoided a crash? It's possible, but it's also possible we could get one more rally into mid-April that could challenge the all-time highs in these indices before turning down again for a severe correction that could greatly exceed 20% in all three indices. But if all three indices clearly break and close above their all-time highs, it will suggest that a major crash has been averted.

Today equity markets are floundering a bit. Our reversal zone ended on Friday, but there are some other technical signals suggesting some sort of top this week and a correction to follow. If the market can stay up and push higher into next week, we may get a significant top then as we enter a new reversal zone April 4 - 20. Either way, we will pay attention to the depth of the next correction. A modest correction may give us an opportunity to go long and ride a rally to challenge the all-time highs. But if these indices start falling below their Feb. 24 lows, it means a more serious correction is underway. Good targets for a modest corrective drop could be around 33,600 in the DOW, 4,300 in the S&P 500, and 13,500 in the NASDAQ. We will watch for these levels as potential buy spots. We are still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

My outlook on gold and silver hasn't changed since my last update (March 21). It looks like both metals are nearing the end of their current medium-term cycles with one last sub-cycle rally off their lows from March 16. This rally could end anytime now, and in fact, it may have topped out last week as both metals are down sharply today. Once the tops are in, we should expect prices to fall sharply to the final medium-term cycle bottoms due 3 to 5 weeks from now. We were planning on selling short at the sub-cycle top around $2050 in gold and $26.50 in silver, but we may not get to do that if the corrections have already started from last week's tops. Let's wait and see if prices can push higher and closer to our targets this week or next and perhaps give us a bearish divergence signal (gold or silver making a new high without the other). That would be an ideal signal to sell short. We will remain on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.

In last Tuesday's blog on crude oil I wrote:

"Right now, crude's medium-term cycle is getting "long in the tooth" (old) which means the final cycle top is due and may have already happened with that $126 high two weeks ago. We are seeing another rally now that could challenge that high before prices turn down and fall to the final medium-term cycle bottom due anytime over the next 6-7 weeks. Any rally that stalls out could be an opportunity to sell short, but it might be safer to wait for the final cycle bottom and then buy. The longer-term cycles in crude still look quite bullish, so any significant correction over the next month or two could be a buying opportunity"

All of this is still valid. It looks like the rally did stall out around $116 (May contract chart) last Thursday as prices have been falling from there. As per my previous advice, I think we will wait for the final cycle bottom to buy. Because this cycle has been so bullish, the target for the final cycle bottom should be around $85 - $90, which is not far below our current price.

There is also a small chance that the old cycle ended and a new one began with the March 15 low at $92.20. If that's true, the market should be very bullish now, but today prices are falling steeply. It's more likely crude will fall lower and make it's final bottom sometime over the next several weeks.. We will watch for that bottom to buy. Another possibility here would be a sudden explosive rally above the $126.52 high of March 7 before the final fall to the medium-term cycle bottom. Given the current geopolitical instability of the Russia/Ukraine war, we can't rule out another surge in prices. In that scenario, we could even see a retest of the all-time high around $145 - $150. I don't expect that to happen, but anything is possible these days. We will remain on the sidelines of crude for now.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), March 22, 2022

3/22/2022

BROAD STOCK MARKET and CRUDE OIL UPDATES (11:30 pm EDST)

We can now say with a fair amount of confidence that all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) have started new medium-term cycles recently and are therefore relatively "young" cycles. The DOW and S&P 500 cycles started with their lows on either Jan. 24 or Feb. 24. The NASDAQ's new medium-term cycle likely started with last week's low On March 14 (a double-bottom to it's low on Feb. 24). The big question now is whether these new cycles will be bullish or bearish.

Cycles are always bullish in their early stage (as these are right now), but they can peak early and turn bearish very quickly if market forces are unfavorable. All three indices are now rising sharply into our current reversal zone (March 15 - 24), so this sets up the potential for a top and significant correction to follow. If market forces are strongly bullish, however, sometimes a reversal zone will coincide with a "breakout" instead of a reversal down. If these indices move higher after Thursday and into next week, we will have to assume that is happening. Even if the market does turn down now, any correction would have to break below those Feb. 24 lows to turn the new cycles bearish. (Those lows would be 32,272 in the DOW, 4,116 in the S&P 500, and last week's 12,555 low in the NASDAQ - a double-bottom to its 12,598 low on Feb. 24). If those lows hold, we will likely see more rallying, and these indices could then test and challenge their all-time highs.

As I've stated before, if ALL THREE of these indices can break clearly above their all-time highs (that would be the Nov. 2021 high of 16,212 in the NASDAQ, and the Jan. 2022 highs of 36,952 and 4,818 in the DOW and S&P 500, respectively), then it's possible for equity markets to avert a severe correction or "crash" over the next few years. But if this market starts to turn down now, or if it rallies over the next several weeks to challenge but not exceed the all-time highs (or exhibits bearish divergence with one, two, BUT NOT ALL THREE indices making a new all-time high), then we would likely be on track for a VERY severe correction over the next several years. We are at a turning point right now where the market can turn either very bullish or very bearish. Needless to say, we need to watch this market carefully over the next month or two. I am currently favoring the bearish view, but that could change. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be resolved quickly, that could trigger a major rally on Wall Street. If the conflict continues or escalates, equity markets could panic and experience a severe sell-off. We will have to wait and see how this plays out.

One market that has already been very strongly affected by the Russia/Ukraine war is crude oil. Indeed, the price of crude went "parabolic" this month as the war escalated, with the price jumping from $90 to over $126 in the first week of March. From there it fell back quickly to around $95, but it is now rising sharply again and closed today around $110. This type of volatile roller coaster ride is one reason we are staying on the sidelines of crude right now - the "wildcard" factor of Russia/Ukraine is distorting our normal technical analysis and parameter boundaries. Despite this distortion, however, it's still possible to identify the timing of our cycles, and this may pinpoint significant highs and lows to buy or sell. Right now, crude's medium-term cycle is getting "long in the tooth" (old) which means the final cycle top is due and may have already happened with that $126 high two weeks ago. We are seeing another rally now that could challenge that high before prices turn down and fall to the final medium-term cycle bottom due anytime now over the next 6-7 weeks. Any rally that stalls out could be an opportunity to sell short, but it might be safer to wait for the final cycle bottom and then buy. The longer-term cycles in crude still look quite bullish, so any significant correction over the next month or two could be a buying opportunity. We will stay on the sidelines of crude for now.

Trading Blog Monday, March 21, 2022

3/20/2022

IMPORTANT UPDATE on PRECIOUS METALS (4:00 pm EDST)

As I've been stating in recent blogs (and in my recent Gold UPDATE on the Home Page), gold is nearing the end of a long-term 23-year cycle and may already be starting its final descent to the long-term cycle bottom that is due around 2023 - 2024. The crest of the 23-year cycle was probably the all-time high of $2070 in Aug. 2020, but that high was challenged earlier this month on March 8 with an isolated high at $2066. Prices have fallen sharply from that peak, which could easily be a "double-top" to the all-time high of 2020. "Double-top" formations are a bearish sign, so gold's 23-year cycle could now be in its downward phase and headed to its final cycle bottom over the next few years. Price-wise, that bottom could go back down to the $1000 level.

But what about that possible "blow-off" top in gold I have been mentioning in recent blogs? Well, that's still possible, but it is now looking less likely. We can say now that both gold and silver are probably near the end of their current medium-term cycles. Last week's low in both metals (which was in our current reversal zone for precious metals - March 16-24) was likely a late sub-cycle low. This means there should only be one more rally in these cycles before a fall to the final medium-term cycle bottoms - due anytime now over the next several weeks (preferably in a reversal zone). If there is to be a "blow-off" top, gold would have to rally strongly now and exceed the $2070 all-time high. That's possible, but not likely as prices have been falling steeply from the March 8 high, and there are several short-term bearish signals in place at the moment suggesting only a mild rally from here.

What we should watch for now is a modest rally in gold to the $2000 to $2100 area where, if prices stall, we should think about selling short. Similarly, a rally in silver to the $26 - $27 area might be a good spot for a short sell. If one metal exceeds its March 8 high without the other (bearish divergence), that would be an even stronger signal to short this market. We are still in the reversal zone for these metals through Thursday, so it's possible a significant top may form as early as this week. If not, a top could form in the first half of April.

The bottom line here is that we are now bearish on both gold and silver and will be looking for opportunities to sell these metals short as it appears the final long-term (23-year) cycle top in gold is probably in.
(Silver is also near the end of a long-term cycle that usually lasts about 18 years. This cycle started in Oct. 2008 with an $8.40 low in silver and most likely peaked early in April 2011 - near $50. It is not due to bottom until 2027 at the earliest - several years later than the expected bottom for gold's 23-year cycle. Nevertheless, if gold starts a major correction now, silver will follow and move significantly down with gold.)

Even if the Russia/Ukraine war and geopolitical instability push these metal prices to new highs, it is VERY late in gold's 23-year cycle, and the final top to this cycle is overdue and imminent - if it hasn't already happened.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), March 16, 2022

3/16/2022

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EDST)

Today the Federal Reserve approved its first interest rate hike in more than three years. It also indicated an aggressive path ahead with six more hikes scheduled through the rest of the year. The broad stock market started to plunge around 2:00 PM when this hawkish announcement was made, but equities snapped back and recovered by the end of the day after Fed Chairman Powell gave a press conference and mentioned that despite the proposed hikes, he would be flexible in his decision to carry them out depending on changing economic data. Today's rate hike was expected by investors, traders, and analysts as rhetoric from the Fed has been quite hawkish since January. The recent downturn in the broad stock market may have already factored in these hawkish fears, so this market may be ready to rally again, at least in the short-term.

The cycle labeling of our three broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) is still a bit ambiguous, but it should become more clear over the next few weeks. In all three indices, we could be seeing either the end of an older medium-term cycle and a final bottom happening now (in our current reversal zone this week or next), or we could be only a few weeks into a new medium-term cycle that started off the lows of Feb. 24. (There is also the possibility that the DOW and/or S&P 500 started a new medium-term cycle off their lows from Jan. 24. This is considered unlikely; but if true, it would make this market VERY bearish with much deeper lows ahead.)

This week on Monday the NASDAQ tested its Feb. 24 low and went slightly below it before snapping back up, The DOW and S&P 500 stayed above their Feb. 24 lows for a case of intermarket bullish divergence in our current reversal zone (March 14 - 24). A strong rally continued from those lows today despite hawkish news from the Fed. This is making a strong case for bullish new (young) medium-term cycles rather than older cycles still falling to their bottoms. We shall see this week and next if the bullish case is true. There is still time for lower bottoms to form in this reversal zone (which ends next week on Thursday). Even if that happens, a new rally would begin from there, so it was probably a good idea to take profits and unload our short positions today - which we did. We are now on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

If we are starting new medium-term cycles now, we don't expect those cycles to make new all-time highs. If they do, we may be able to avert a major crash in the broad stock market. The next few months will be a critical time for equity markets. The Russia/Ukraine war could be the pin that breaks the stock market "bubble", but if this conflict resolves itself quickly, it could be the trigger for a very strong rally that might propel equities out of a major crash. We shall see.

Trading Blog Wednesday, March 16, 2022

3/16/2022

BROAD STOCK MARKET TRADE ALERT (3:15 pm EDST)

It's time to cover and take profits in our short NASDAQ position. The NASDAQ made new lows this week without the DOW and S&P 500, which is a bullish divergence signal. Also, equities seem unfazed by the Fed announcing a hike in interest rates today. This is also a bullish sign that these markets are bottoming and ready to rally again - at least in the short-term. I will post more analysis later this evening. We are covering (unloading) any short positions in the broad stock market today. We are taking a good profit in our short NASDAQ position.

Trading Blog Thursday, March 10, 2022

3/10/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (5:00 pm EST)

The broad stock market is having a roller coaster week with large moves both up and down. All three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ), however, are staying above their Jan. 24 lows, and today is the last day of our current reversal zone. This market could turn up now (with Tuesday's lows being a significant bottom in our reversal zone), but there is another general reversal zone coming up next week (March 15 - 24), so another deeper low in that time frame is not out of the question. Even if the market rises now, this new reversal zone could put a damper on any rally and turn it back down. Thus, our view of this market is still bearish. Let's continue to hold our short NASDAQ position until we see more bullish technical signals.

Both gold and silver are backing down a bit from dramatic highs they made on Tuesday. Gold actually challenged its Aug. 2020 all-time high of $2070 (it got to $2066 on Tuesday, which could end up being a "double-top" to the long-term 23-year cycle). On Tuesday Silver made a new high for 2022 at $26.83, but that was still well below the Aug. 2020 and Feb. 2021 peaks where silver was a hair's breath away from $30. This sets up a strong bearish divergence between the two metals. Tuesday's highs were in the center of our general reversal zone, so that could be a significant top. But we are entering a new general reversal zone next week (as stated above) as well as a reversal zone specifically for gold and silver from March 16 - 24 (same time frame as the general reversal zone). If prices fall into the new reversal zones, we may have a set-up to buy. On the other hand, if gold or silver make new highs next week, it may be an opportunity to sell short. Needless to say, we need to be cautious and careful with all trading now as current global geopolitical instability is creating high volatility in all financial markets.

If the stock market continues to tank, we could still see a sharp surge in precious metals with a potential "blow-off" top in the 23-year long-term cycle in gold, which could exceed the all-time high of $2070. On the other hand, the 23-year cycle top may already be in, and gold and silver prices could fall now. (Remember how precious metals fell WITH the stock market crash in 2008-2009?) Even if we get a "blow-off" price surge in gold, blow-off tops are always followed by steep plunges - and this one would be very steep as it would be the end of a long-term 23 year cycle. The bottom of that cycle is due around 2023 - 2024. Please see my recent GOLD Update on the Home Page.
We remain on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.

Speaking of "blow-off" tops, crude oil prices accelerated up rapidly last week and made a new 10-year high this week on Monday at $130 (April contract chart). From there, prices plunged back down, and they hit $103 yesterday. These dramatic price moves have obviously been triggered by the Russia/Ukraine war crisis. As this crisis continues, we may see more price surges and plunges. It is not a safe environment for trading. If prices lower a bit more and stabilize, we may consider buying as the longer-term cycles in this market still look bullish. We will remain on the sidelines for now.

Trading Blog Monday, March 7, 2022

3/7/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (3:00 pm EDT)

The escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict continues to put downward pressure on equity markets. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are now approaching and testing their Feb. 24 lows where they may find some support. We are now in the center of our current general reversal zone (March 1 - 10), so a new bottom or "double-bottom" could form now. If one or two, but not all three, indices go below their Feb. 24 lows, we could get a bullish divergence signal, and that could also suggest the formation of a significant bottom. On the other hand, if all three indices break and close below their Feb. 24 lows, it would be a bearish sign suggesting a deeper correction is underway. We are still holding our short position in the NASDAQ. We will consider covering this position and taking good profits if it looks like a significant low is forming this week.

Investors/traders may now be fleeing equity markets to invest in the perceived "safe haven" markets of gold and silver as well as the U.S. Dollar Index. (The greenback is also benefiting from recent hawkish rhetoric from the Fed.)
Gold and silver prices both surged to new highs today with gold touching the $2000 mark and silver hitting $26. We are now in the center of a a general reversal zone that applies to all our markets, so a top and some sort of correction could be imminent. But because we will not have any bearish divergence between the two metals this week, we may not see any top until next week when we enter another reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (March 16 - 22). We are still on the sidelines of both metals as we have not seen any significant corrections to buy. Because the U.S. dollar is moving up WITH gold and silver, we cannot use it right now as a contra-indicator for these metals.

Crude oil's price is, of course, benefiting from the Russia/Ukraine war. Today crude surged to $130 -a new 10-year high! - before backing down and closing around $120 (April contract chart). Today we entered a new reversal zone specifically for crude (March 7 - 14), so a top could also be forming in this market. The war is a "wildcard" factor now strongly influencing the price of crude, and that makes this market very volatile. It is certainly too late to chase this rally. We may consider buying at the bottom of any significant correction, but for now we will remain on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Wednesday, March 2, 2022

3/2/2022

BROAD STOCK MARKET "CRASH" UPDATE (2:00 pm EST)

The scenario described in my "CRASH UPDATE" (1/7/22) on the Home Page seems to be playing out on schedule (so far). The DOW and S&P 500 formed significant all-time high tops in early January (the NASDAQ's all-time high top came a little earlier - in late November 2021), and all three indices have been falling steeply from those highs. We are now at a critical juncture. All three indices made deep lows on February 24 (the DOW hit a bottom at 32,272, the S&P 500 dropped to 4,116, and the NASDAQ plunged to 12,598). From the all-time highs, this represents a 12% drop in the DOW, a 14% drop in the S&P 500, and a whopping 22% drop in the NASDAQ.

All three indices have bounced up sharply from those Feb. 24 (last Thursday) lows. But is this going to be just a "dead cat bounce"? In other words, can this rally gain some momentum and lead to another challenge to the all-time highs in one, two, or all three of these indices? Or will the rally struggle and turn back down soon to go deeper than those Feb. 24 lows? This is the big question now.

The NASDAQ has already exceeded a 20% correction. If this market does turn back down soon, and the DOW and S&P 500 also fall more than 20% from their all-time highs, there's a good chance that a serious "crash" will be underway. A second possibility could be another strong rally into April with one, two, BUT NOT ALL THREE indices making new all-time highs. This would be a strong intermarket bearish divergence signal, and the big "crash" could proceed from there. A third possible scenario would be for all three indices to rally strongly now with ALL THREE making new all-time highs. If that happens, there's a good chance the serious correction would be over, and there would likely be no crash. Right now, the first scenario seems most likely, the second scenario a little less likely, and the third scenario (no crash) the least likely. It should be more clear which scenario will play out by the end of this month.

Trading Blog Tuesday (evening), March 1, 2022

3/1/2022

MARKETS UPDATE (10:00 pm EST)

All three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) made deep lows last Thursday and have snapped back up from those lows. The cycle labeling of these indices is ambiguous at the moment - there are several possibilities. It's possible that last week's lows represent the final bottoms to old medium-term cycles. If that's the case, this market could be at least short-term bullish and starting a rally that could test the recent February highs. But it's also possible that the current medium-term cycles in these indices have NOT bottomed yet and are still headed lower. Several short-term technical indicators are supporting this idea, and we also note that last week's low was not in a significant reversal zone (we like to see major cycle bottoms in reversal zones). There is a significant reversal zone, however, starting this week (March 1 -10), and we entered it today. This leads me to think that we could get a deeper low in this new reversal zone. Even if the market rallies some more, it is now doing so in the reversal zone, and that could curb the rally early and push it back down. All three indices are down today. Let's hold on to our short position in the NASDAQ a bit longer.

As the broad stock market plunged last week and reached its nadir on Thursday, nervous investors seemed to jump into the "safe haven" of precious metals as gold and silver prices shot up dramatically Thursday morning. Gold got to $1972 and silver touched $25.56 before both fell back by the end of the day to previous day levels. The Russia/Ukraine crisis is increasing the volatility of all financial markets right now. Today, both metal prices are surging up again. We are going to stay on the sidelines of this volatile market for now.

Please see last week's blog for my comments about gold's 23-year long-term cycle. Gold is now challenging a strong resistance zone around $1900 - $1960. If it can break through that, we could see a "blow-off" top to the long-term cycle that could challenge and even exceed the all-time high of $2070. That's why we are keeping an eye out for a significant corrective low to buy. So far, we haven't gotten one, If gold OR silver can exceed last week's high without the other, we may get a bearish divergence signal in this new reversal zone this week or next week which could lead to a top and some sort of correction.

We note that recently the U.S. Dollar Index has been rising WITH gold and silver prices (usually the greenback and precious metals move in opposite directions). This is a sign that investors and traders are getting concerned and nervous about equity market stability, and they may be moving funds to both precious metals and the U.S. Dollar as perceived safe havens in these geopolitically unstable and financially volatile times.

Readers may recall that during the 2008 - 2009 stock market "crash", investors chose the greenback as their preferred "safe haven". The U.S. dollar surged in that time frame as gold and silver prices took a dive. Once the bottom to the crash stabilized in early 2009, however, precious metal prices rallied sharply to new all-time highs over the next 2 years as investors realized the intrinsic value of these metals over U.S. "fiat" currency.

If our current prediction of a possible long-term "crash" in the broad stock market unfolds now (it may already be underway), we may see a repeat of 2008 - 2009 with a quick and sharp drop in gold and silver prices - especially since a final sharp correction to a 23-year cycle bottom in gold is now due (see my GOLD Update on the Home Page). On the other hand, if savvy investors favor precious metals as a safe haven this time around, we could instead see a sharp surge and possible "blow-off" top form in gold before its final descent to the 23-year cycle bottom. We will be monitoring all of this very carefully over the next month or two.

The "wildcard" factor of geopolitical instability has always been a major influence on crude oil prices, and we are certainly seeing this now as crude skyrocketed to a new high of $108.97 today (April contract chart). As with the precious metals, we haven't had a significant correction to buy in to, but considering the potential volatility of this market now (it can go down as fast as it is going up), it's perhaps best to remain on the sidelines for now. A significant corrective drop in this market is overdue. We may see a top form in our new general reversal zone (March 1 - 10), or we could also see a top form in our next reversal zone specifically for crude coming up March 4 - 14. There is overlap between the two March 4 - 10. We may see a top or bottom (or both) in crude any time in this entire two week time period (March 1 - 14). This market looks very bullish now, but if the Russia/Ukraine crisis deescalates, we could see crude prices drop rapidly.

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