As we move toward the center of our new reversal zone for equities and precious metals (Feb. 26 - March 7), the broad stock market has been relatively flat and seems reluctant to rally. This week's disparaging comments on President Trump from his former attorney Michael Cohen, the current break down of talks with North Korea as well as the dragging on of trade deal talks with China are most likely weighing heavily on investor's minds. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all made new highs on Monday. Those highs could end up being the top of a sharp correction if a pessimistic mood takes hold on Wall Street and continues into next week. If that happens, we will watch for a bottom to buy. But equity markets may shrug off their worries and rally into next week. This would be an ideal scenario if one or two (but not all three) indices make new highs early next week giving us an intermarket bearish divergence signal to sell short. We are on the sidelines for now as we watch for either one of these scenarios to unfold.
Gold and silver prices continue to fall reinforcing the idea that both metal's medium-term cycle tops may be in with last week's highs. If so, they are now falling sharply to their final cycle bottoms. We will continue to watch for a buy spot at the bottom, ideally around $1280 in gold and $14.75 in silver.
Crude oil prices have been edging up this week. If crude can beak above last week's high of $57.81 (April contract chart) then we could see a rally into next week's reversal zone specifically for crude oil (March 5 - 14) that could get above $60. If that happens, we will have a good spot to sell short for a sharp sub-cycle correction. If last week's high holds, however, there is still time for prices to fall to a low in that same reversal zone. In that case, a low near $51 would be a good place to go long. Still on the sidelines of this market.