Blog Posts

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), March 11, 2026

3/11/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)

This week, crude oil prices have shown us how volatile they can be during times of war in the Middle East. Prices jumped to $119 (April contract chart) on Monday before falling back to close around $95. The next day, prices retreated further down to $84. They seem to be headed back up again today, but we are still inside a reversal zone specifically for crude (March 3 - 12), so a top may be forming here (possibly a double-top near $100). If that's the case, we could see crude rolling over now with prices heading lower into next week. On the other hand, the ongoing conflict with Iran could push prices even higher. Sometimes (rarely), we see breakouts in reversal zones (instead of turnarounds), and the current geopolitical environment increases that possibility.

It is fairly late in the current medium-term cycle of crude, so the safest thing to do now is to wait for the final top in the cycle (it may be in already with that $119 high) and then the final corrective bottom for a possible spot to buy. It would be foolish to chase the current rally based solely on the current war, especially this late in the cycle and inside a strong reversal zone. I am remaining on the sidelines of crude oil for now.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), March 5, 2026

3/5/2026

UPDATES on GOLD, SILVER, and CRUDE OIL (11:30 pm EST)

On Feb. 12, I wrote about gold:

"Gold's current medium-term cycle is either very old or very young. If a new cycle started with the low of $3887 on Oct. 28, the cycle is old and is in the process of a 2-5 week decline (from that Jan. 29 all-time high near $5600) to the final medium-term cycle bottom somewhere around $4200 - $4400. But if a new cycle began from the deep low on Feb.2 ($4406), then gold could be very bullish now and ready to rally above that Jan. 29 high."

The status of the medium-term cycle (old or new) is still unclear, although the chances of it being a new cycle are increasing as the price seems reluctant to turn down. Monday's isolated high at $5418 (a possible double-top to the Jan. 29 high) was inside a general reversal zone and could be a signifcant turning point; however, we are now entering another reversal zone specifically for precious metals (March 3 - 12). Another significant top or bottom could be imminent. If prices start to fall, we could see the final bottom of the older cycle next week. But a sudden rally could lead to a significant top in the new cycle that may have started on Feb. 2. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out. I am staying on the sidelines of gold for now.

On Feb. 16, I wrote about silver:

"Right now, a medium-term cycle bottom is due. It may have happened already with the Feb. 6 low of $64.14, but I think the bottom could go lower - at least to $54, and possibly even lower."

It's still not clear if that low on Feb. 6 was the medium-term cycle bottom. As I mentioned above for gold, we are now inside a reversal zone specifically for these metals. Ideally, I would like to see a deeper bottom (close to $54) inside this time frame (by the end of next week). I am still on the sidelines of silver.

Not surprisingly, the escalating war with Iran is driving crude oil prices sky high. Today, crude broke through a resistance line around $75 (April contract chart) and got to $82 before the trading day was over. Yes, we sold our long position in crude yesterday and missed out on a $6 one-day profit, but we are now in the center of a reversal zone for crude (March 3 - 12, same as for gold/silver), so a top should be imminent. Tensions/wars in the Middle East are a "wild card" factor in crude oil trading, and that makes this market very volatile right now. I am relying on cycle analysis to make trades, as that is more reliable than trying to guess the outcomes of geopolitical wars. It's also important to remember that volatility creates price surges in BOTH directions, so today's profit could be tomorrow's loss. We are now on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), March 4, 2026

3/4/2026

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)

It is late in the medium-term cycles of all three broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ), which began with the lows on Nov. 20 and Nov. 21. It appears that the final tops in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were on Jan. 28, while the DOW's final top came on Feb. 10. This was a strong intermarket bearish divergence signal, and all three indices have now fallen below their 45-day and 15-day moving averages. It is also late in a longer-term 1-year cycle whose final bottom is also now due.

Yesterday's isolated lows COULD be the final bottoms to all these cycles (they were inside a strong reversal zone), but the target for the 1-year cycle bottom should be lower (closer to 46,000 in the DOW and 6,500 in the S&P 500). There is another strong general reversal zone coming up March 17 - 26. If the market moves lower into that time frame and doesn't fall too far below these target prices, we may have a good spot to buy for more rallying into the summer - possibly to new all-time highs. On the other hand, if these indices break well below 45,500 in the DOW and 6,500 in the S&P 500, our outlook would not be so bullish. In that case, a serious long-term correction could be underway. For now, I am remaining on the sidelines of this market.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), March 3, 2026

3/3/2026

CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT (11:30 pm EST)

We had been waiting for crude oil prices to reach our $68 target (April contract chart). Due to the escalating conflict with Iran, that price was greatly exceeded yesterday and today when prices shot to $77.98 before backing down and closing near $74.50. We are still inside a strong general reversal zone, and we just entered a new reversal zone specifically for crude (March 3 - 12). While it's possible the price could surge higher, today's high looks like a significant top and a good place to unload our long position. I am going to sell my long position in crude (which we entered on Jan. 23 near $60) at tomorrow's market open. The ongoing conflict with Iran will continue to make this a volatile market, but the timing of our trading cycles should help us identify and navigate significant turning points.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), February 26, 2026

2/26/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)

Crude oil made an isolated high at $67.28 (April contract chart) on Monday. That was at the center of a reversal zone specifically for crude (February 17 - February 26), so it could be a sub-cycle top. The price has been falling from there, but today crude found support at the $64 level and tested and closed above the 15-day moving average. We are still inside that reversal zone, but we are also now near the center of another strong general reversal zone (Feb. 24 - March 4). This might be another turning point that could propel the price higher and closer to our $68 target.

I am going to hold my long position in crude with the idea of selling on another rally to the $68 mark.
Let's raise the stop loss for this trade to a close below $64.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), February 18, 2026

2/18/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)

The current longer-term cycles in crude oil are somewhat ambiguous, so I am going to focus on the medium-term cycle in this market. A new medium-term cycle in crude began on Dec. 16 (2025) at $54.84 (March contract chart). This cycle's trend looks bullish as prices quickly rallied up to $66.48 by the end of January. The rally took a breather from there, but price corrections have remained above a support line around $62. We just entered a reversal zone specifically for crude (Feb. 17 - 26). Yesterday's isolated low at $61.87 was inside the reversal, so that may be a significant turning point. This is supported by today's strong rally that is closing above the 15-day moving average.

A good target for the top of this cycle would be around $68, and there's a good chance this will be achieved as the cycle looks bullish. I am going to hold my long position in crude (which we entered on Jan. 23 around $61), with a stop loss on a close below $60 for now. We will be looking to unload (sell) near the $68 mark, especially inside any reversal zones. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran) are still driving this market.

Trading Blog Monday (late night), February 16, 2026

2/16/2026

UPDATE ON SILVER (11:30 pm EST)

It is now VERY late in silver's long-term 18-year cycle (this is the 18th year). The top of this cycle is obviously overdue, and it looks like it happened with the Jan. 29 "blow-off" price at $121.63. It is also late in several shorter-term cycles in silver, including the current medium-term cycle, which can also claim the Jan. 29 high as its top. So what does this all mean?

The final correction to an 18-year cycle bottom should be deep and steep, and could be as much as 70% - 90%! (70% would be back down to $37.) And because it is so late in the cycle, that drop could happen relatively fast. Nevertheless, it should proceed in stages with some up and down fluctuations in the shorter-term cycles. Right now, a medium-term cycle bottom is due. It may have happened already with the Feb. 6 low of $64.14, but I think the bottom could go lower - at least to $54, and possibly even lower.

My strategy at this point is to wait for the final medium-term cycle bottom for a possible buy spot, but then to watch for the top of the next rally to reverse position and sell short. That medium-term cycle bottom could fall inside next week's strong general reversal zone (Feb. 24 - March 4), somewhere between $40 and $50. Because silver is a very volatile commodity (especially after a blow-off top), we have to be careful in our trading, which is why we want to place trades mostly inside strong reversal zones, as significant tops or bottoms are most likely to happen in those time frames.
I am still on the sidelines of silver.

Trading Blog Thursday (evening), February 12, 2026

2/12/2026

UPDATE ON GOLD (9:30 pm EST)

There are multiple possibilities right now for labeling gold's medium-term cycle as well as some of its longer-term cycles. Let's first consider gold's 8-year cycle, which began with a bottom at $1618 in Nov. 2022. We are just starting the 4th year of that cycle, which is near the mid-point. There is still plenty of time for prices to go higher before a top to the 8-year cycle is attained (especially if the trend is bullish); however, the parabolic rise and "blow-off" to the all-time high near $5600 on Jan. 29 could have been the final top to the 8-year cycle. If so, gold prices would be bearish and about to take a long-term correction down.

It seems more likely, however, that gold will exceed that $5600 high this year before starting its descent to an 8-year cycle low. Selling short at the top of the 8-year cycle would be a good trading strategy. There is also a 4-year cycle bottom that is due by the end of this year. Even if the top of the 8-year cycle is in (or is to be attained soon), a 4-year cycle bottom could be a good buying spot for at least a strong shorter-term rally (to a possible "double-top" or a lower secondary top to the 8-year cycle). I realize this is a bit confusing, but I will identify any patterns as they unfold over time.

Gold's current medium-term cycle is either very old or very young. If a new cycle started with the low of $3887 on Oct. 28, the cycle is old and is in the process of a 2-5 week decline (from that Jan. 29 all-time high near $5600) to the final medium-term cycle bottom somewhere around $4200 - $4400. But if a new cycle began from the deep low on Feb.2 ($4406), then gold could be very bullish now and ready to rally above that Jan. 29 high. With all these possibilities, I am going to remain on the sidelines of gold until we can identify a significant top or bottom to trade from. My bias is the older medium-term cycle, so I will be looking for a final bottom below $4406 any time over the next few weeks.

Trading Blog Wednesday, February 11, 2026

2/11/2026

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)

On Jan. 26, I wrote about the broad stock market:

" ...looks bullish, but to confirm this, they all [three indices] have to make new highs soon, and the NASDAQ has to break above its all-time high of 24,020 from last October to negate its bearish divergence to the other two indices. Until that happens, there is still the danger of this market turning bearish and taking a deep correction. We are now out of a strong reversal zone, but there is a weaker one coming up Feb. 2 - 11. We could see a significant low or a significant high in that time frame."

Well, all three indices DID make new all-time highs (the NASDAQ and S&P 500 on Jan. 28, and the DOW on Feb. 3). This means this market's trend is still bullish. Since those highs, however, only the DOW has made another new high (50,512, yesterday). The S&P 500 is close to a new high, but the NASDAQ is well below its Jan. 28 high, which gives us another strong intermarket bearish divergence signal. We are at the end of the Feb. 2-11 reversal zone, and these indices are rising. A top could be forming now, and this market could roll over, but if the bullish trend persists, we could see more rallying. If that rallying continues into our next strong general reversal zone (Feb.24 - March 4), THAT could be the final top in the current medium-term cycles of these indices, and a steep correction could follow (it is late in all three medium-term cycles).

As I have mentioned before, it is very late in some longer-term cycles in this market, especially an 18-year cycle (we are in the 17th year) and possibly a 90-year cycle (now overdue, if it is to happen). This means that a serious correction could begin any time now. An 18-year correction could see a 35% - 67% drop in the DOW, but if it occurs simultaneously with a 90-year correction, the drop could be even greater than 67%. Nevertheless, the short-term picture seems to be bullish, and a "blow-off" would not be out of the question in the late stages of these cycles.

For now, I'm staying on the sidelines, at least until we see the final corrective drop in our medium-term cycles. That bottom may not be far away - possibly next month. But first, the final top has to happen (if it hasn't already), and that could be this week, next week, or even the week after (if the bullish energy - irrational exuberance?, Trumphoria? -continues).

Trading Blog Thursday (evening), January 29, 2026

1/29/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (8:30 pm EST)

Our long position in crude entered on Jan. 23 is doing well as the price has moved from $61 to $66 (March contract chart) in just 4 trading days. There is considerable resistance at $66, however, and we enter another general reversal zone next Tuesday (Feb. 2 - 12). We could see a corrective dip into that time frame, but because this market seems bullish, prices could also edge higher to a potential top in that same window, with a correction following a bit later. I am going to stay long for now with the intention of riding out any correction, unless it goes too deep. The current 15-day moving average is rising steeply and is now approaching a strong support level around $62. That is probably a good stop-loss point for our long position. Even if a correction holds above there, we still need to see a clear break above $66 to support the idea of the trend turning bullish. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving the current rally. We need to be careful as prices could fall as quickly as they rise.

<<Previous

Forward>>