The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog       Monday,  September 28,  2015

9/28/2015

 
BROAD STOCK MARKET and PRECIOUS METALS UPDATE  (2:45 pm EDT)

In a speech given late in the day last Thursday U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen stated that, "Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate…an initial increase in the federal-funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter."  This comment was likely intended to temper any excessively dovish interpretation of the recent FOMC decision to delay an interest rate hike and to curb speculation that a first hike will be pushed into 2016 (even though it may be). Equity markets on Friday seemed buoyed by Ms. Yellen's slightly hawkish speech which may have eased investor anxiety a bit by clarifying the Fed's intentions. Today's market is falling sharply, however, so Wall Street's fear seems to be returning. This may in part be due to news today that the NASDAQ has produced a "death cross" chart pattern and joins the other three major market indices (DOW, S&P 500, Russell 2000 Index) which have also recently manifested death crosses. (A "death cross" is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, and this sometimes heralds a longer-term downtrend.)  This death cross "grand slam" could be very bearish, and it's certainly in line with our projection of new market lows into late October. We are doing well with our short positions in the broad stock market (which we entered on Aug. 13 and Aug. 27) and will stay with them for now.  Holding my short position here.

Gold and silver seem to be at a crossroads right now and have the potential to turn either very bearish (short-term) or very bullish. I am currently favoring the bearish view with the idea of both metals making new lows (gold below $1100 and silver below $14) into October/November. Today's steep drop in precious metal prices seems to be supporting this, but this could be a very volatile week for these metals so we could see prices surging up as well.
​As long as gold stays below $1170 and silver stays below $15.90 (spot prices) I will maintain my bearish view. We currently have a short position in gold but are out of silver. Silver prices dropped sharply today so we may have missed a good opportunity to go short last week. If prices pop up again this week we may get another chance. Holding my short position in gold and on the sidelines of silver.




Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.