The broad stock market appears to be rising into our mid-November reversal zone (Nov.10-21) so I am expecting a top to form between now and early next week to be followed by a brief but possibly steep correction that could take the DOW back towards the 17,000 area. Market volatility is high this week with the potential for sudden, large moves so calling a top here is a little tricky. At the moment it seems like the rally could edge up a bit more, and I would like to see at least a short-term bear signal before considering a short position. We may get one over the next few days. Still on the sidelines.
Gold and silver charts are still showing an ambiguous pattern, and it is not clear whether they are going to "break out" and make new highs or break down to new lows. If this market is going to turn bullish, gold prices need to first clear strong resistance in the $1180 - $1210 area. Right now I favor the bearish view, and I am looking to sell short the top of any rally into (but not above) that resistance. It would be ideal to see this happen over the next several days. If gold does break down, we could see prices approaching $1000 (or lower) by the end of the year. On the sidelines and looking to enter short positions in both metals soon.
Crude oil seems to be establishing a baseline support at $76, and a cycle bottom is overdue, but directional momentum remains 100% bearish in the crude oil price charts. It is still possible for prices to drop lower this week or early next week so I am remaining on the sidelines of this market.