MARKETS UPDATE (5:15 pm EST)
Most markets appear to be stable and calm so far this week with the notable exception of currencies. Of course, the volatility of the U.S. Dollar, Euro, and Swiss Franc is being caused right now by the plan of eurozone officials to impose a one-time tax of up to 10% on bank depositors in the island nation of Cypress to bail out its troubled banking system. Understandably, the Cypriot public is outraged, and whether or not the plan goes through remains to be seen. This bold act by the eurozone, however, has generated fear in other European nations that similar plans may be in store for their ailing economies. A widespread panic driven withdrawal of money from European banks could easily cause a run on the banks and potentially set in motion a broader collapse of the European economy. While this is only speculation, the European stock markets are very fragile right now, and it probably wouldn't take much to kick them into a serious downward trend. This is a concern for us because a plunge in European markets would almost certainly have an adverse effect on the U.S. stock market.
According to the market timing information I study, next week could be a major turning point for all markets, so we need to watch carefully the trends into that time frame (up or down) and look for a possible reversal of that trend.
For our long positions in gold and silver this could mean a slight correction down before a strong rally up (as long as we don't break below $1500-1530 in gold and $26-27 in silver we stay long).
If the broad stock market continues to rally into next week, we could see a sudden reversal down, but a downtrend into next week could create a launching pad for more bullish rallying. We will watch this from the sidelines as we are out of this market for now because of its ambiguity.
Our long positions in crude oil are looking good and could rally quite a bit more, but we will carefully watch crude's behavior into next week for possible bearish signals that may suggest early profit taking. Staying long here for now.
In my last post on the Swiss Franc (3/3/13) we had observed that it was probably making a major bottom and about to begin a new significant trading cycle which is bullish. This indeed seems to be the case, and it has corrected nearly down to 1.045 (last Thursday), which may be the final bottom. As I am very conservative with my currency strategy and because the Cypress news has caused recent volatility in currency prices, I am waiting for more bullish signals before buying into the Swiss Franc. On the sidelines here, but will likely be buying soon.
Most markets appear to be stable and calm so far this week with the notable exception of currencies. Of course, the volatility of the U.S. Dollar, Euro, and Swiss Franc is being caused right now by the plan of eurozone officials to impose a one-time tax of up to 10% on bank depositors in the island nation of Cypress to bail out its troubled banking system. Understandably, the Cypriot public is outraged, and whether or not the plan goes through remains to be seen. This bold act by the eurozone, however, has generated fear in other European nations that similar plans may be in store for their ailing economies. A widespread panic driven withdrawal of money from European banks could easily cause a run on the banks and potentially set in motion a broader collapse of the European economy. While this is only speculation, the European stock markets are very fragile right now, and it probably wouldn't take much to kick them into a serious downward trend. This is a concern for us because a plunge in European markets would almost certainly have an adverse effect on the U.S. stock market.
According to the market timing information I study, next week could be a major turning point for all markets, so we need to watch carefully the trends into that time frame (up or down) and look for a possible reversal of that trend.
For our long positions in gold and silver this could mean a slight correction down before a strong rally up (as long as we don't break below $1500-1530 in gold and $26-27 in silver we stay long).
If the broad stock market continues to rally into next week, we could see a sudden reversal down, but a downtrend into next week could create a launching pad for more bullish rallying. We will watch this from the sidelines as we are out of this market for now because of its ambiguity.
Our long positions in crude oil are looking good and could rally quite a bit more, but we will carefully watch crude's behavior into next week for possible bearish signals that may suggest early profit taking. Staying long here for now.
In my last post on the Swiss Franc (3/3/13) we had observed that it was probably making a major bottom and about to begin a new significant trading cycle which is bullish. This indeed seems to be the case, and it has corrected nearly down to 1.045 (last Thursday), which may be the final bottom. As I am very conservative with my currency strategy and because the Cypress news has caused recent volatility in currency prices, I am waiting for more bullish signals before buying into the Swiss Franc. On the sidelines here, but will likely be buying soon.
RSS Feed