BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EDST)
The cycle patterns in all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are, unfortunately, still not clear. It seems most likely that all three medium-term cycles are in their young and bullish phase, but we still can't completely rule out the possibility that one or more are still completing an older cycle and ready to drop steeply to a final cycle bottom soon. (We still have an intact bearish divergence signal as the DOW and S&P 500 made new all-time highs last week and the NASDAQ is still well below its all-time high from February). This ambiguity in the charts is not surprising considering the Fed's policy statement last week delivered mixed signals to Wall Street. Because we are now outside any strong reversal zones for equities until late April, we shouldn't expect any MAJOR turning points until then. We might, however, see sub-cycle tops and bottoms. At this juncture, I am not really interested in trading short-term sub-cycles as our primary focus is to identify a major longer-term cycle top to sell short in all three indices. Right now, it looks like we might get that top later in April. As I've mentioned in previous blogs, I would like to see the S&P 500 clear the 4,000 mark before considering a short position. Let's remain on the sidelines and wait to see if these cycles become more clear over the next week or two. A dramatic move in either direction could clarify things quickly.
The cycle patterns in all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are, unfortunately, still not clear. It seems most likely that all three medium-term cycles are in their young and bullish phase, but we still can't completely rule out the possibility that one or more are still completing an older cycle and ready to drop steeply to a final cycle bottom soon. (We still have an intact bearish divergence signal as the DOW and S&P 500 made new all-time highs last week and the NASDAQ is still well below its all-time high from February). This ambiguity in the charts is not surprising considering the Fed's policy statement last week delivered mixed signals to Wall Street. Because we are now outside any strong reversal zones for equities until late April, we shouldn't expect any MAJOR turning points until then. We might, however, see sub-cycle tops and bottoms. At this juncture, I am not really interested in trading short-term sub-cycles as our primary focus is to identify a major longer-term cycle top to sell short in all three indices. Right now, it looks like we might get that top later in April. As I've mentioned in previous blogs, I would like to see the S&P 500 clear the 4,000 mark before considering a short position. Let's remain on the sidelines and wait to see if these cycles become more clear over the next week or two. A dramatic move in either direction could clarify things quickly.
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