MARKETS UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)
We are now inside a strong general reversal zone for all markets (April 22 - May 3) where we are expecting all of the markets that we follow to be making significant lows. So far, the broad stock market has been rising from last week's lows (the DOW from Wednesday, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ from Friday). Those lows were just outside our reversal zone and a bit early, so there's a good chance these indices could resume their fall to a deeper low due anytime through next week. The rally over the last few days is now encountering resistance at the 15-day and 45-day moving averages, and that could turn these indices back down. We will watch for this now as a deeper correction to the final bottom of the current medium-term cycle could be in the cards.
We are expecting a sub-cycle correction of shorter duration for our two precious metals, gold and silver, and we may have already gotten that with their isolated lows on Tuesday ($2295 in gold and $26.69 in silver). Nevertheless, it is still early in our strong general reversal zone (which is running parallel to another reversal zone specifically for gold and silver), and we have another strong potential "pivot point" coming up Friday through next Monday specifically for gold. As with the broad stock market, prices in both these metals could drop lower before reversing back up with a strong rally. Let's hold off any buying until we are more certain a significant bottom is in.
Crude oil may have made a significant bottom on Monday at $80.70 (June contract chart), but its rally from there has not been strong, and prices are holding below the 15-day moving average. As with the broad stock market, we are expecting a full medium-term cycle correction in this market which could be quite steep and last 2 - 5 weeks. Therefore, it would not surprise me to see prices move lower, and ideally complete a final bottom sometime next week, still inside our general reversal zone, which is especially relevant to this market.
We are remaining on the sidelines of all of these markets for now.
We are now inside a strong general reversal zone for all markets (April 22 - May 3) where we are expecting all of the markets that we follow to be making significant lows. So far, the broad stock market has been rising from last week's lows (the DOW from Wednesday, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ from Friday). Those lows were just outside our reversal zone and a bit early, so there's a good chance these indices could resume their fall to a deeper low due anytime through next week. The rally over the last few days is now encountering resistance at the 15-day and 45-day moving averages, and that could turn these indices back down. We will watch for this now as a deeper correction to the final bottom of the current medium-term cycle could be in the cards.
We are expecting a sub-cycle correction of shorter duration for our two precious metals, gold and silver, and we may have already gotten that with their isolated lows on Tuesday ($2295 in gold and $26.69 in silver). Nevertheless, it is still early in our strong general reversal zone (which is running parallel to another reversal zone specifically for gold and silver), and we have another strong potential "pivot point" coming up Friday through next Monday specifically for gold. As with the broad stock market, prices in both these metals could drop lower before reversing back up with a strong rally. Let's hold off any buying until we are more certain a significant bottom is in.
Crude oil may have made a significant bottom on Monday at $80.70 (June contract chart), but its rally from there has not been strong, and prices are holding below the 15-day moving average. As with the broad stock market, we are expecting a full medium-term cycle correction in this market which could be quite steep and last 2 - 5 weeks. Therefore, it would not surprise me to see prices move lower, and ideally complete a final bottom sometime next week, still inside our general reversal zone, which is especially relevant to this market.
We are remaining on the sidelines of all of these markets for now.
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