UPDATES on the BROAD STOCK MARKET and PRECIOUS METALS (8:00 pm EST)
Today the Fed announced it would speed up the tapering of its bond-buying program (now to end in March instead of April) and potentially start hiking interest rates sooner than expected. This hawkish news was expected since early this week and may account for the drop in the broad stock market over the last two days ("sell the rumor"). After the announcement at 2pm, however, equities bounced back up ("buy the news"), so it's possible this corrective dip is over, and we could see more rallying into the holidays. We'll have to wait and see as we remain on the sidelines of this market.
Hawkish rhetoric from the Fed usually boosts the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. Dollar Index did rise a bit today.
In contrast, the Fed's news was not good for the price of gold and silver as both metals fell and made new weekly lows. This negates the intermarket bullish divergence signal that we had on Monday and Tuesday. Silver is also getting very close to the start of its current medium-term cycle ($17.22 on Sept. 29). If prices break below there, it will mean silver's trend has turned bearish. We are now near the center of a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Dec. 14 - 22), so we could see a bottom and reversal back up anytime now. I am reluctant to go long now for the reasons mentioned above, but if we get another bullish divergence signal (one but not both metals making a new weekly low) in the first half of next week, it could be a good spot to buy (assuming prices don't go TOO low). We will stay on the sidelines of both metals for now.
Today the Fed announced it would speed up the tapering of its bond-buying program (now to end in March instead of April) and potentially start hiking interest rates sooner than expected. This hawkish news was expected since early this week and may account for the drop in the broad stock market over the last two days ("sell the rumor"). After the announcement at 2pm, however, equities bounced back up ("buy the news"), so it's possible this corrective dip is over, and we could see more rallying into the holidays. We'll have to wait and see as we remain on the sidelines of this market.
Hawkish rhetoric from the Fed usually boosts the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. Dollar Index did rise a bit today.
In contrast, the Fed's news was not good for the price of gold and silver as both metals fell and made new weekly lows. This negates the intermarket bullish divergence signal that we had on Monday and Tuesday. Silver is also getting very close to the start of its current medium-term cycle ($17.22 on Sept. 29). If prices break below there, it will mean silver's trend has turned bearish. We are now near the center of a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Dec. 14 - 22), so we could see a bottom and reversal back up anytime now. I am reluctant to go long now for the reasons mentioned above, but if we get another bullish divergence signal (one but not both metals making a new weekly low) in the first half of next week, it could be a good spot to buy (assuming prices don't go TOO low). We will stay on the sidelines of both metals for now.
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