There have been no major market changes since Monday's blog.
The broad stock market continues to be indecisive as to what direction it wants to take. Over the last several days the DOW has been testing support at 15,400 and is now breaking below that level again today. Unless it can rally back up 100 points over the next hour or so, it seems like it will close below this level, which is a bearish sign. As I mentioned in Monday's blog, momentum in the DOW is now medium-term bearish but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ remain bullish. It seems like a major correction from the high of August 2 (at 15,658) has started, but I would like to see momentum changes in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to confirm this. If instead the market turns up here and starts to make new highs, we will look to the end of August for the peak before a major reversal. We are still out of this market.
Gold and silver continue to look short-term bullish with silver up about 2% since our purchase on Monday. We are currently trading short-term in the precious metals, and it is important now for gold to break the $1350 level and silver the $22 level soon to make this rally worthwhile. We are holding our long positions in both gold and silver.
The crude oil market is similar to the broad stock market right now in that it may be starting a major correction from a recent top (actually double top) around $108-$109 (July 19 and August 2). Momentum here is also medium-term bearish. Although the crude chart is looking bearish, prices have been rising from a low around $102 last Thursday to a closing today above $106. The price needs to turn back down soon to confirm the downward trend. Any break above that double top (above $109) would negate the bearish view and would, as with the broad stock market, point to a peak in the last week of August and then a major reversal. Still on the sidelines of this market.