LATE MARKET UPDATE BEFORE WEDNESDAY'S FED STATEMENT (11:30 pm EST)
The stock market and precious metals have been quite volatile this week, most likely in nervous anticipation of the December Federal Reserve meeting that took place today and continues into tomorrow afternoon. The Fed will release a statement with its economic projections at 2:00 PM tomorrow, and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will hold a press conference at 2:30 PM. This meeting is being watched carefully by investors and financial analysts because it is the last one of the year, and many are expecting the Fed to make projections for the upcoming year, especially regarding short-term interest rates and when they will rise. All the markets that we trade on the site are potentially at major turning points right now, so reaction to the Fed's statement tomorrow could be a trigger for reversals but could also be a force to negate expected reversals and push markets deeper into their current trend. We therefore must be very careful trading here. Even though markets have arrived at some of the my target areas, I am waiting to see how they react to tomorrow's Fed statement and Janet Yellen's press conference before making any trade.
The DOW is now very close to 17,000, but there is support down to the 16,800-16,900 area as well so prices could still go lower before turning up. In my last blog I mentioned the possibility of the broad stock market continuing its downtrend (i.e. no reversal) and falling for at least another four weeks. If the Fed's comments tomorrow are strong on raising interest rates (perhaps sooner than mid-2015), it could make Wall Street nervous and accelerate the steep correction that is already in progress. But if the DOW finds support above 16,800 (and the S&P 500 holds above 1950), there is a good chance these markets will turn up before the end of the week. I am now looking to buy these support areas for a short but potentially steep rally back towards the market's recent all-time highs. On the sidelines for now.
Gold and silver are also falling into support areas and could reverse up now. Gold has broken below $1200 but there is also good support at $1180 and even $1160. Silver's strong support is the $15 - $15.50 area. Tomorrow's Fed statement may keep this market volatile for the rest of the week, but unless these support levels break, I am looking to go long on any short-term buy signal for at least a short-term (and possibly longer term) rally.
Still on the sidelines.
Crude oil prices dipped to $54 today and are entering our $45-$55 price range for a final cycle bottom in this market. Prices can obviously go lower, but this market is very oversold and the timing is ideal for a reversal this week. I will therefore be watching the rest of the week for a short-term buy signal here as well. We could be starting a new cycle now (or anytime over the next several weeks). Still out of this market.
The stock market and precious metals have been quite volatile this week, most likely in nervous anticipation of the December Federal Reserve meeting that took place today and continues into tomorrow afternoon. The Fed will release a statement with its economic projections at 2:00 PM tomorrow, and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will hold a press conference at 2:30 PM. This meeting is being watched carefully by investors and financial analysts because it is the last one of the year, and many are expecting the Fed to make projections for the upcoming year, especially regarding short-term interest rates and when they will rise. All the markets that we trade on the site are potentially at major turning points right now, so reaction to the Fed's statement tomorrow could be a trigger for reversals but could also be a force to negate expected reversals and push markets deeper into their current trend. We therefore must be very careful trading here. Even though markets have arrived at some of the my target areas, I am waiting to see how they react to tomorrow's Fed statement and Janet Yellen's press conference before making any trade.
The DOW is now very close to 17,000, but there is support down to the 16,800-16,900 area as well so prices could still go lower before turning up. In my last blog I mentioned the possibility of the broad stock market continuing its downtrend (i.e. no reversal) and falling for at least another four weeks. If the Fed's comments tomorrow are strong on raising interest rates (perhaps sooner than mid-2015), it could make Wall Street nervous and accelerate the steep correction that is already in progress. But if the DOW finds support above 16,800 (and the S&P 500 holds above 1950), there is a good chance these markets will turn up before the end of the week. I am now looking to buy these support areas for a short but potentially steep rally back towards the market's recent all-time highs. On the sidelines for now.
Gold and silver are also falling into support areas and could reverse up now. Gold has broken below $1200 but there is also good support at $1180 and even $1160. Silver's strong support is the $15 - $15.50 area. Tomorrow's Fed statement may keep this market volatile for the rest of the week, but unless these support levels break, I am looking to go long on any short-term buy signal for at least a short-term (and possibly longer term) rally.
Still on the sidelines.
Crude oil prices dipped to $54 today and are entering our $45-$55 price range for a final cycle bottom in this market. Prices can obviously go lower, but this market is very oversold and the timing is ideal for a reversal this week. I will therefore be watching the rest of the week for a short-term buy signal here as well. We could be starting a new cycle now (or anytime over the next several weeks). Still out of this market.
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