BROAD STOCK MARKET and CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:15 pm EDT)
It looks like the broad stock market may be finally starting that significant correction we have been anticipating since early this month. For the last three weeks, the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have not been able to exceed their highs from March 1 (which was a major reversal zone), but today the NASDAQ did exceed its March 1 high and then all three indices immediately plunged in a dramatic example of intermarket bearish divergence. These indices are now likely falling to their medium-term cycle bottoms which are due sometime over the next few weeks and most likely around mid-April which is the next reversal zone for this market. The DOW could go as low as 20,000. We are still holding our short position in this market and will likely stay short as we ride this correction down to a final cycle low in all three indices.
Like the broad stock market, crude oil's medium-term cycle is coming to an end, and the bottom is due any time over the next four weeks. Ideally it will be in the first week of April as that is the next reversal zone for crude. We probably missed our chance to sell this market short at last week's high of $49.62 so our strategy now will be to wait for the bottom of the cycle to buy (which could be around $45). Still on the sidelines of crude oil.
It looks like the broad stock market may be finally starting that significant correction we have been anticipating since early this month. For the last three weeks, the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have not been able to exceed their highs from March 1 (which was a major reversal zone), but today the NASDAQ did exceed its March 1 high and then all three indices immediately plunged in a dramatic example of intermarket bearish divergence. These indices are now likely falling to their medium-term cycle bottoms which are due sometime over the next few weeks and most likely around mid-April which is the next reversal zone for this market. The DOW could go as low as 20,000. We are still holding our short position in this market and will likely stay short as we ride this correction down to a final cycle low in all three indices.
Like the broad stock market, crude oil's medium-term cycle is coming to an end, and the bottom is due any time over the next four weeks. Ideally it will be in the first week of April as that is the next reversal zone for crude. We probably missed our chance to sell this market short at last week's high of $49.62 so our strategy now will be to wait for the bottom of the cycle to buy (which could be around $45). Still on the sidelines of crude oil.
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