GOLD and SILVER UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)
It's still not clear if gold started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $1885 on Aug. 21 or if it is still completing an older cycle that started on June 29 at $1894. I'm starting to favor the older cycle labeling. If it's correct, the cycle is bearish (because it has already gone below its starting point) and should be headed down to its final bottom over the next several weeks with a target price below $1885.
Last Thursday gold made an isolated low early in a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Sept. 13 - 21). Prices have been rising from there; however, today is a strong potential "pivot point" for gold, and we are still in that reversal zone. A high and reversal back down could be imminent, but If prices don't turn down and instead continue to rally past this week (especially if they break above $1950), then we will have to go with the younger cycle labeling (a new cycle starting on Aug. 21). Either way, we are anticipating a significant low to buy sometime over the next three weeks as there are strong bullish signals for gold coming up in October.
Even if the current medium-term cycle in gold is bearish, the longer-term 23 year cycle could still be bullish (i.e. if a new one started on Sept. 28, 2022 at $1616) , and that means gold prices could soon challenge and exceed the all-time high of $2070. But if prices continue to decline and start moving below $1750, we may have to assume an older longer-term (23 year) cycle is still in place and moving to its final bottom near $1000 sometime next year. (See Gold Updates on the Home Page).
I realize these cycles are a bit confusing right now. The bottom line is that we won't be certain that a new long-term cycle in gold has started until prices break above $2070. Until that happens, we are trading shorter-term cycles, and we are expecting one of these to give us a significant low over the next few weeks to buy for a strong rally into November. For now, we remain on the sidelines of gold.
Silver's medium-term cycle started with the low of $22.19 on June 23. From there silver has made two peaks - one at $25.26 on July 20, and a second one at $24.98 on Aug. 30. That second high was just below the first one which likely turns this cycle bearish. This cycle is old and its final bottom is due anytime between now and early October. Last week's low at $22.33 was a bit early but may have been the final low. If it was, silver could be very bullish now; however, as with gold, there is a potential "pivot point" for silver this week (Wed. - Fri.) inside the reversal zone for precious metals, so we could see a high followed by another downturn in price. Let's stay on the sidelines of silver for now until we are more certain the final medium-term cycle bottom is in.
It's still not clear if gold started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $1885 on Aug. 21 or if it is still completing an older cycle that started on June 29 at $1894. I'm starting to favor the older cycle labeling. If it's correct, the cycle is bearish (because it has already gone below its starting point) and should be headed down to its final bottom over the next several weeks with a target price below $1885.
Last Thursday gold made an isolated low early in a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Sept. 13 - 21). Prices have been rising from there; however, today is a strong potential "pivot point" for gold, and we are still in that reversal zone. A high and reversal back down could be imminent, but If prices don't turn down and instead continue to rally past this week (especially if they break above $1950), then we will have to go with the younger cycle labeling (a new cycle starting on Aug. 21). Either way, we are anticipating a significant low to buy sometime over the next three weeks as there are strong bullish signals for gold coming up in October.
Even if the current medium-term cycle in gold is bearish, the longer-term 23 year cycle could still be bullish (i.e. if a new one started on Sept. 28, 2022 at $1616) , and that means gold prices could soon challenge and exceed the all-time high of $2070. But if prices continue to decline and start moving below $1750, we may have to assume an older longer-term (23 year) cycle is still in place and moving to its final bottom near $1000 sometime next year. (See Gold Updates on the Home Page).
I realize these cycles are a bit confusing right now. The bottom line is that we won't be certain that a new long-term cycle in gold has started until prices break above $2070. Until that happens, we are trading shorter-term cycles, and we are expecting one of these to give us a significant low over the next few weeks to buy for a strong rally into November. For now, we remain on the sidelines of gold.
Silver's medium-term cycle started with the low of $22.19 on June 23. From there silver has made two peaks - one at $25.26 on July 20, and a second one at $24.98 on Aug. 30. That second high was just below the first one which likely turns this cycle bearish. This cycle is old and its final bottom is due anytime between now and early October. Last week's low at $22.33 was a bit early but may have been the final low. If it was, silver could be very bullish now; however, as with gold, there is a potential "pivot point" for silver this week (Wed. - Fri.) inside the reversal zone for precious metals, so we could see a high followed by another downturn in price. Let's stay on the sidelines of silver for now until we are more certain the final medium-term cycle bottom is in.
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