The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog      Tuesday (late night),  October 6,  2020

10/6/2020

 
UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET  (11:30 pm EDST)

We are now about to enter a very important reversal zone (Oct. 7 - 15), and our cycle labeling of the DOW and S&P 500 is still in question. It is starting to look like either one or both these indices started new medium-term cycles with their lows on Sept. 24. If that's the case, we should see more rallying to a sub-cycle top in this new reversal zone that would likely test the Sept. 3 high of 29,199 in the DOW and the Sept. 2 all-time high of 3,588 in the S&P 500. But there's still a chance that these indices will instead fall hard into this reversal zone to form a final bottom to an older cycle (which would be a good spot to buy). We will have to wait a few more days to see if this market wants to continue rallying or take a substantial correction now.

We are changing our labeling of the NASDAQ from an old cycle to a new medium-term cycle that started with the 10,520 low of Sept. 24. This means this index is at least short-term bullish and we should be looking for a corrective dip to buy. That may come in this new reversal zone, but if this market continues to rally, we may get a high instead, and we may have to wait a bit longer for a sub-cycle correction and a good buying opportunity.


Last week's announcement of President Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis sent the broad stock market down, but his quick recovery lifted the market back up yesterday. Today Mr.Trump announced that he would halt fiscal stimulus negotiations until after the election, and this has sent equities down again. Our trading strategies are on hold until this roller coaster settles down a bit and we can see if our new reversal zone is shaping up to be a top or a bottom.

​Our longer-term view is still that we will see a major long-term cycle top soon (by the end of this year or possibly early 2021) which will be a major opportunity to sell short as the correction should be very substantial. Despite this bearish view, we could still see a strong short-term rally (possibly even a "blow-off') before that final top and thus opportunities to profit on the long side before the big sell-off. On the sidelines of this market for now.






Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.