Some of my sources for market and chart analysis have been delayed this week but should return next week. In the meantime, we will lay low and will extrapolate our analysis from our recently identified trends and cycles.
It still appears that we have started newer medium-term cycles in the DOW and S&P 500 from their Jan. 29 lows. The S&P 500 seems to have made a sub-cycle top last Tuesday, while the DOW made a new all-time high yesterday. This is giving us a bearish divergence signal. The NASDAQ is likely a much older cycle that also made a top last Tuesday, but unlike the DOW or S&P 500, it is falling very steeply from that high - most likely into its final cycle bottom. (We had been thinking of selling the NASDAQ short, but its steep correction seems to be already underway, and we will not chase it.) If the NASDAQ is falling to its medium-term cycle low, it should move lower at least for another week (maybe more) and into a more substantial corrective drop. If the DOW and S&P 500 are new cycles, their sub-cycle corrections may not be that deep. If the DOW did make its high yesterday, it has some time now to fall, even if only to a sub-cycle corrective dip. If all of these scenarios play out, we should still be focused on the NASDAQ as its final cycle bottom would most likely be a good spot to buy (unless that bottom drops close to 11,000 or lower). After that final bottom, we could still have another substantial rally in these indices before a final long-term top is in (which should be followed by a VERY big correction). We will remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market until my data sources resume next week.
Gold fell below our $1767 target level last Friday and has been rallying sharply from there. We will have to watch this carefully to see if that was a significant cycle bottom or if it will go lower. Silver's low that Friday was not nearly as significant which strengthens our theory that silver is in the early stages of a new medium-term cycle (and not ending an older one like gold). We will refrain from any trading of this market for now.
Crude oil has been amazingly bullish this month. Prices touched $63 today (April contract chart). We may be at the top of the current medium-term cycle now, unless prices push higher into Friday. If this commodity is taking its cues from the DOW, it could push higher before its final correction down to its cycle bottom. We remain on the sidelines for now.