The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Tuesday,  June 14,  2022

6/14/2022

 
COMMENT ON THIS WEEK'S FOMC MEETING and UPDATE ON THE U.S. DOLLAR  (2:30 pm EDST)

This month's FOMC meeting is today and tomorrow, and market analysts are generally expecting the Fed to remain hawkish and to announce another 50 basis point (1/2 %) interest rate hike. Curiously, there is even speculation that a 75 basis point hike is possible. This talk of a 75 point hike may be a strategy by the Fed to encourage investor relief if a 50 point hike is given instead to avoid a serious sell-off in equity markets which have been plummeting over the last several days. The Fed's announcement is expected at 2:00 pm Wednesday afternoon. Because we are now entering multiple reversal zones, it would not be surprising to see the broad stock market form a significant bottom and start to reverse back up, at least short-term. But sometimes (not often) a reversal zone will correspond to a breakdown (or a breakout if markets are rising - they are falling here) with the market breaking a support line and falling steeply instead of bouncing back up. The announcement of a 75 basis point interest rate hike could potentially trigger such a move. Even if the market tumbles past Wednesday, there is a strong reversal zone next week that could potentially turn it back up. We shall have to wait and see how all of this plays out. We are still on the sidelines of the broad stock market. 

We note that the U.S. Dollar Index has now broken and closed just above its 105 top from May 13. As I've mentioned in previous blogs on the U.S. dollar (see blogs from April 9 and April 27), a clear rise above 104-105 would suggest that the greenback is turning bullish and is bypassing its long-term 15-16 year bottom (expected in 2023-2025 in the 55-60 range). However, we are in a reversal zone time frame now (although not one specifically for currencies), so this could turn out to be a bearish "double-top" formation. But if the dollar can stay above 105 and continue higher, we will have to abandon the idea of a bearish 15-16 year cycle moving to its final bottom. A bullish U.S. dollar would support our idea that gold's long-term 23 year cycle has peaked and is in the process of falling to its final bottom in 2023-2024 in the $1000 area.







Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.