UPDATE on PRECIOUS METALS (6:00 pm EDT)
After a sharp plunge in the overnight market on Sunday, gold and silver prices seem to be stabilizing with gold just above $1100 and silver above $14.70. The Sunday night lows (gold down to $1072 and silver to $14.55) may have been medium-term cycle bottoms, but there are no strong signs of reversal yet, and it is possible to see lower lows (or a double bottom) later this week or into next week. I am looking to go long at this bottom because it will likely be the start of new medium-term cycles in both gold and silver, and the start of a new cycle is always bullish. I want to point out, however, that this will probably be a short-term trade. The fact that gold broke and closed well below the $1143 low of March 17 suggests that the overall cycle trend is turning bearish. This means that after a sharp but probably brief rally, the new cycle will likely turn down again and make lower lows (possibly below $1000). Based on current cycle and timing data, that lower bottom could be later this year (Nov.- Dec.).
Those who have been reading my blog for some time may recall that over a year and a half ago I had
been anticipating a major long-term cycle bottom in gold (and silver) from which a major long-term rally would begin that would take the precious metals to new all-time highs. That bottom had seemed imminent in September 2013 until gold prices were apparently manipulated twice in early October 2013. In my blog on Oct. 15, 2013 I wrote: "It appears that last week gold prices were manipulated down again by someone selling 800,000 ounces of gold on COMEX while the New York markets were closed. Prices had been stabilizing above $1300 earlier in the week, but by Friday they were pushed down close to $1250. (A similar market manipulation occurred on Oct. 1, the first day of the government shutdown, when gold broke its $1300 support and dropped nearly $50.) So it is possible there are some people in high places who wish to keep gold prices from taking off right now..."
The timing of the long-term gold cycle may have been delayed by this manipulation, but the cycle is still valid, and it looks like that final long-term bottom could be later this year. If so, we will have another "golden opportunity" to go long in the precious metals at that time.
In the meantime, we are still watching for a medium-term cycle bottom to buy now for a short-term, but tradeable rally
that could last for several weeks and take gold prices back to $1140 or higher. If we miss a good buy spot here, we will wait to sell short from the next cycle high into that final bottom expected later this year. More conservative traders may want to stand aside any buying now and just wait for that short sell. On the sidelines of gold and silver at the moment.
After a sharp plunge in the overnight market on Sunday, gold and silver prices seem to be stabilizing with gold just above $1100 and silver above $14.70. The Sunday night lows (gold down to $1072 and silver to $14.55) may have been medium-term cycle bottoms, but there are no strong signs of reversal yet, and it is possible to see lower lows (or a double bottom) later this week or into next week. I am looking to go long at this bottom because it will likely be the start of new medium-term cycles in both gold and silver, and the start of a new cycle is always bullish. I want to point out, however, that this will probably be a short-term trade. The fact that gold broke and closed well below the $1143 low of March 17 suggests that the overall cycle trend is turning bearish. This means that after a sharp but probably brief rally, the new cycle will likely turn down again and make lower lows (possibly below $1000). Based on current cycle and timing data, that lower bottom could be later this year (Nov.- Dec.).
Those who have been reading my blog for some time may recall that over a year and a half ago I had
been anticipating a major long-term cycle bottom in gold (and silver) from which a major long-term rally would begin that would take the precious metals to new all-time highs. That bottom had seemed imminent in September 2013 until gold prices were apparently manipulated twice in early October 2013. In my blog on Oct. 15, 2013 I wrote: "It appears that last week gold prices were manipulated down again by someone selling 800,000 ounces of gold on COMEX while the New York markets were closed. Prices had been stabilizing above $1300 earlier in the week, but by Friday they were pushed down close to $1250. (A similar market manipulation occurred on Oct. 1, the first day of the government shutdown, when gold broke its $1300 support and dropped nearly $50.) So it is possible there are some people in high places who wish to keep gold prices from taking off right now..."
The timing of the long-term gold cycle may have been delayed by this manipulation, but the cycle is still valid, and it looks like that final long-term bottom could be later this year. If so, we will have another "golden opportunity" to go long in the precious metals at that time.
In the meantime, we are still watching for a medium-term cycle bottom to buy now for a short-term, but tradeable rally
that could last for several weeks and take gold prices back to $1140 or higher. If we miss a good buy spot here, we will wait to sell short from the next cycle high into that final bottom expected later this year. More conservative traders may want to stand aside any buying now and just wait for that short sell. On the sidelines of gold and silver at the moment.
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