CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT (3:00 pm EDST)
It looks like crude oil is going to close the day above our stop loss of $66 (June contract chart) so I am reluctantly going to cover my short position in this market today. I say reluctantly because this new top is happening in a reversal zone, and we are even a bit above a normal target for this rally as well as overdue for a top so prices could easily turn down now and fall to the final cycle bottom over the next several weeks, and that bottom could go as low as $55. But prices could also push higher into next week's reversal zone which is specific to crude and make a new top then. Today's bullish "pop" in the broad stock market could be inspiring crude to come along for the ride, and breaking a significant resistance just above $66 could indeed lead to a "break-out" type rally. This has me concerned, and we have already taken a 2-3 % loss on this trade so I think it is best to unload my short position now. Traders who don't have time to cover this position today can place an order for tomorrow's market open and may even get a better price if it moves down. Covering (unloading) my short position in crude oil. Should prices rally significantly next week, we will look for another spot to sell short. Otherwise, we will wait for the final cycle bottom to buy as (longer-term) crude still looks bullish for the rest of the year.
I will comment on the broad stock market and precious metals later this evening.
It looks like crude oil is going to close the day above our stop loss of $66 (June contract chart) so I am reluctantly going to cover my short position in this market today. I say reluctantly because this new top is happening in a reversal zone, and we are even a bit above a normal target for this rally as well as overdue for a top so prices could easily turn down now and fall to the final cycle bottom over the next several weeks, and that bottom could go as low as $55. But prices could also push higher into next week's reversal zone which is specific to crude and make a new top then. Today's bullish "pop" in the broad stock market could be inspiring crude to come along for the ride, and breaking a significant resistance just above $66 could indeed lead to a "break-out" type rally. This has me concerned, and we have already taken a 2-3 % loss on this trade so I think it is best to unload my short position now. Traders who don't have time to cover this position today can place an order for tomorrow's market open and may even get a better price if it moves down. Covering (unloading) my short position in crude oil. Should prices rally significantly next week, we will look for another spot to sell short. Otherwise, we will wait for the final cycle bottom to buy as (longer-term) crude still looks bullish for the rest of the year.
I will comment on the broad stock market and precious metals later this evening.
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