MARKETS UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)
The broad stock market rallied strongly today, but we may just be seeing a brief relief rally after this week's steep fall. Although the DOW briefly touched 32,500 yesterday (the top limit of our target range), the S&P 500 is still above our target range of 3,600 - 3,900, and both indices are still below their 15-day and 45-day moving averages. I still think they can move lower into next week before we hit their final medium-term cycle bottoms. Unless today's rally can gain some upward momentum over the next several trading days, we will continue to hold our short position in this market.
Gold and silver prices have been rising a bit this week from their new weekly lows on Monday. As with the broad stock market, we are anticipating the final medium-term cycle lows for these two metals soon. There are no reversal zones this week, but there are strong ones for the precious metals coming up next week and the following week. For this reason, I suspect prices will make new lows over the next two weeks which will correspond to the final bottom of one or both metals. We will stay on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.
Crude oil prices have risen steeply this week, and today they closed above both the 15-day and 45-day moving averages. This is bullish behavior, but it will take a close above $80.78 (April contract chart) and especially above $82.89 to confirm a bullish trend in the current medium-term cycle. Alternatively, there is still time for prices to head back down below $70.86 and make a new cycle low in our next strong general reversal zone coming up March 14 - 23. In the meantime, we will hold off making any trades until one of these "lines in the sand" is crossed.
The broad stock market rallied strongly today, but we may just be seeing a brief relief rally after this week's steep fall. Although the DOW briefly touched 32,500 yesterday (the top limit of our target range), the S&P 500 is still above our target range of 3,600 - 3,900, and both indices are still below their 15-day and 45-day moving averages. I still think they can move lower into next week before we hit their final medium-term cycle bottoms. Unless today's rally can gain some upward momentum over the next several trading days, we will continue to hold our short position in this market.
Gold and silver prices have been rising a bit this week from their new weekly lows on Monday. As with the broad stock market, we are anticipating the final medium-term cycle lows for these two metals soon. There are no reversal zones this week, but there are strong ones for the precious metals coming up next week and the following week. For this reason, I suspect prices will make new lows over the next two weeks which will correspond to the final bottom of one or both metals. We will stay on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.
Crude oil prices have risen steeply this week, and today they closed above both the 15-day and 45-day moving averages. This is bullish behavior, but it will take a close above $80.78 (April contract chart) and especially above $82.89 to confirm a bullish trend in the current medium-term cycle. Alternatively, there is still time for prices to head back down below $70.86 and make a new cycle low in our next strong general reversal zone coming up March 14 - 23. In the meantime, we will hold off making any trades until one of these "lines in the sand" is crossed.
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