MARKETS UPDATE (11:00 pm EDST)
It still looks like all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are in the early stages of new medium-term cycles (with a small chance that one or more could be completing an older cycle). Newer cycles would be more bullish, and this market seems bullish at the moment. All three indices have made new weekly highs this week. The DOW and S&P 500 are making new all-time highs, but the NASDAQ is still below its all-time high from February 16 (14,167), which means we still have a bearish divergence signal in effect. That signal may be negated, however, if the NASDAQ breaks that high, and it looks like that could happen. This week's strong rally in the NASDAQ suggests that it started a new medium-term cycle at the 12,397 low on March 5, which would make it very young and bullish. Although a peak and a subsequent major correction is possible any time now, I am favoring the idea that this market is at least short-term bullish and is not ready to do that just yet. The next major reversal zone for this market is two weeks away (April 20 - 29). I am hoping that will be a peak to sell short, but if equities start to fall now, it could turn out to be a significant cycle bottom instead. We will stay alert for both possibilities, but for now I am favoring more bullish short-term rallying. We will remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.
We still can't be sure if gold is completing the bottom of an old medium-term cycle or starting a new one. If the former, prices will drop below the $1677 low of March 8 soon and give us a good bottom to buy. But this week's low (so far) only got to $1678 and prices are now rallying from there. That could be a double bottom and the start of a new cycle, which would be very bullish. Another argument for the bullish new cycle is the fact that silver made a new weekly low yesterday while gold did not (bullish divergence). Nevertheless, we are not in a major reversal zone for any market right now, and we do like to be in one for a major top or bottom.
There are several possibilities for silver's medium-term cycle labeling at the moment, and this makes a trading call for this metal very difficult. Silver could have made a significant bottom with yesterday's low at $23.80, but as I pointed out with gold, we are not in a reversal zone for these metals. Although it is tempting to buy here due to the possibility of a new cycle (or even sub-cycle) starting from yesterday's low, I am staying on the sidelines to see if prices can drop lower.
We remain on the sidelines of both precious metals for now.
Crude oil may have made a final medium-term cycle bottom on March 23 at $57.25, but that was also not in a reversal zone. There IS a reversal zone specifically significant to crude coming up next week (April 7 - 16). We could see a lower bottom (or double bottom) happen then. If that happens, it could be a good place to buy. If not, this market is set to rally strongly now. Let's remain on the sidelines and see how prices move into next week.
It still looks like all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are in the early stages of new medium-term cycles (with a small chance that one or more could be completing an older cycle). Newer cycles would be more bullish, and this market seems bullish at the moment. All three indices have made new weekly highs this week. The DOW and S&P 500 are making new all-time highs, but the NASDAQ is still below its all-time high from February 16 (14,167), which means we still have a bearish divergence signal in effect. That signal may be negated, however, if the NASDAQ breaks that high, and it looks like that could happen. This week's strong rally in the NASDAQ suggests that it started a new medium-term cycle at the 12,397 low on March 5, which would make it very young and bullish. Although a peak and a subsequent major correction is possible any time now, I am favoring the idea that this market is at least short-term bullish and is not ready to do that just yet. The next major reversal zone for this market is two weeks away (April 20 - 29). I am hoping that will be a peak to sell short, but if equities start to fall now, it could turn out to be a significant cycle bottom instead. We will stay alert for both possibilities, but for now I am favoring more bullish short-term rallying. We will remain on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.
We still can't be sure if gold is completing the bottom of an old medium-term cycle or starting a new one. If the former, prices will drop below the $1677 low of March 8 soon and give us a good bottom to buy. But this week's low (so far) only got to $1678 and prices are now rallying from there. That could be a double bottom and the start of a new cycle, which would be very bullish. Another argument for the bullish new cycle is the fact that silver made a new weekly low yesterday while gold did not (bullish divergence). Nevertheless, we are not in a major reversal zone for any market right now, and we do like to be in one for a major top or bottom.
There are several possibilities for silver's medium-term cycle labeling at the moment, and this makes a trading call for this metal very difficult. Silver could have made a significant bottom with yesterday's low at $23.80, but as I pointed out with gold, we are not in a reversal zone for these metals. Although it is tempting to buy here due to the possibility of a new cycle (or even sub-cycle) starting from yesterday's low, I am staying on the sidelines to see if prices can drop lower.
We remain on the sidelines of both precious metals for now.
Crude oil may have made a final medium-term cycle bottom on March 23 at $57.25, but that was also not in a reversal zone. There IS a reversal zone specifically significant to crude coming up next week (April 7 - 16). We could see a lower bottom (or double bottom) happen then. If that happens, it could be a good place to buy. If not, this market is set to rally strongly now. Let's remain on the sidelines and see how prices move into next week.
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