MARKETS UPDATE (3:15 pm EDST)
The broad stock market is trending down this week, but it seems reluctant (so far) to take a deep correction. It looks like it is still possible for it to push higher. We've just entered a low level (weak) reversal zone (June 9-15), but we enter another major strong reversal zone next week (June 16 - 27), so if they push higher, equities could make another significant high in these time frames, or they could continue down and make a significant low instead. Right now it looks like it could go either way, but I favor them making a low. (It could also do both - make a new high and then a low, or vice-versa.) We will remain on the sidelines of this market until its direction becomes more clear.
NOTE: Please see my new update 6/7/22 on the longer-term correction in the broad stock market. It is on the Homepage. It seems that we are back on track for a longer-term correction in this market that could indeed develop into a major "crash."
Gold and especially silver prices are falling today which is good for the short positions we established on Monday. So far our stop loss levels have not been breached ($1874 in gold and $22.49 in silver), and there are short-term technical signals suggesting prices will go lower. We are still favoring the idea that these metals are now falling to the final bottoms of older medium-term cycles, so we are holding our short positions in gold and silver for now.
The U.S. Dollar Index is rallying strongly today which supports our idea that it started a new medium-term cycle with its recent low at 101.30 (May 30). A rising dollar should put downward pressure on precious metal prices.
Crude oil continues to rally with prices hitting $123 yesterday (July contract chart). As we move into our new reversal zones (see above), we could see some sort of top and corrective dip(s) in this market. The next major reversal zone specifically for crude, however, is at the end of this month (June 20 - 28), so we may have to wait a bit before we see any significant top or bottom form in this market. We are still on the sidelines of crude oil.
The broad stock market is trending down this week, but it seems reluctant (so far) to take a deep correction. It looks like it is still possible for it to push higher. We've just entered a low level (weak) reversal zone (June 9-15), but we enter another major strong reversal zone next week (June 16 - 27), so if they push higher, equities could make another significant high in these time frames, or they could continue down and make a significant low instead. Right now it looks like it could go either way, but I favor them making a low. (It could also do both - make a new high and then a low, or vice-versa.) We will remain on the sidelines of this market until its direction becomes more clear.
NOTE: Please see my new update 6/7/22 on the longer-term correction in the broad stock market. It is on the Homepage. It seems that we are back on track for a longer-term correction in this market that could indeed develop into a major "crash."
Gold and especially silver prices are falling today which is good for the short positions we established on Monday. So far our stop loss levels have not been breached ($1874 in gold and $22.49 in silver), and there are short-term technical signals suggesting prices will go lower. We are still favoring the idea that these metals are now falling to the final bottoms of older medium-term cycles, so we are holding our short positions in gold and silver for now.
The U.S. Dollar Index is rallying strongly today which supports our idea that it started a new medium-term cycle with its recent low at 101.30 (May 30). A rising dollar should put downward pressure on precious metal prices.
Crude oil continues to rally with prices hitting $123 yesterday (July contract chart). As we move into our new reversal zones (see above), we could see some sort of top and corrective dip(s) in this market. The next major reversal zone specifically for crude, however, is at the end of this month (June 20 - 28), so we may have to wait a bit before we see any significant top or bottom form in this market. We are still on the sidelines of crude oil.
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