The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog             Thursday,  July 5,  2018

7/5/2018

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (4:30 pm EST)

We are now entering a new reversal zone for the broad stock market (July 4 - 13), and we will have to wait and see if this reversal will be a turn up from a new low or a turn down from a new high. (At this moment it looks like it could be either one.)  Not much has changed since my blog on this market last Sunday. If we get a good rally into next week, we will probably look to sell short. But if this market turns south and drops down to test or even break below last week's lows in next week's reversal zone, we will look to buy what could be a final medium-term cycle bottom for all three market indices - DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Still on the sidelines here.
 
Gold and silver ​prices dropped dramatically early this week with gold making a new low at $1238 and silver a new low at $15.78. Prices have been rising from those lows, but they are rising into a new reversal zone for the precious metals that began yesterday (July 4 - 13). Thus this rally may not get very far before turning down again. It would not be unreasonable to say these bottoms occurred just a bit early (a day or two) in the reversal period (reversal date ranges do not represent absolute cut off points for a reversal - they are just areas of high probability for a reversal) and so these may be significant lows. Nevertheless, prices could still rise into the center or end of the reversal next week, and we could get two reversals in one reversal zone (sorry if this is confusing). The bottom line here is that I think we are now seeing a brief corrective sub-cycle bounce in both metals that will be followed by a reversal back down to lower lows. If silver rallies to the $16.20 - $16.40 area next week and stalls, it may be a good spot to sell short. Gold reaching the $1270 - $1280 area next week may also be a good place for a short position. An intermarket bearish divergence signal (i.e. one metal making a new weekly high but not the other) would also encourage us to short these metals next week. Remaining on the sidelines of both metals for now.

We are still very early in the current medium-term cycle of crude oil which started with the June 17 low of $63.40 (August contract chart). Since we entered a long position in crude on June 5 near that level, the price has soared to over $75 this week (Tuesday) so we have been doing well with this trade. Today prices are dropping a bit below $73 as this rally takes a breather. Tuesday's top was just outside a new reversal zone for crude (July 4- 13 - same as for the broad stock market and precious metals) so it is possible prices could push higher into next week for a more significant top. If that happens, we will take profits and sell our long position. Another possibility is a new weekly low in next week's reversal zone. As long as that low stays fairly close to $70, we will hold our long position for more rallying, possibly to the $78 area or even a bit higher. Holding my long position in crude for now.




​


Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.