The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog         Thursday,  July 29,  2021

7/29/2021

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (10:00 pm EDST)

The Fed announced yesterday that interest rates would remain unchanged at near zero and that there would be no changes to its bond-buying program - yet. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did hint in his rhetoric that the clock on bond-purchasing was ticking with tapering likely on the horizon. That slightly hawkish tone may have had a dampening effect on the broad stock market as the DOW closed with a 127 point loss yesterday. The DOW did recover all of that loss with today's 153 point gain, so maybe the markets are now shrugging off yesterday's pessimism. The DOW and S&P 500 both made new all-time highs today, and the NASDAQ made a  new all-time high on Monday, so we have no bearish divergence signal this week. Tomorrow starts our new strong reversal zone (July 30 - Aug. 10). If this market is going to fall into it, it has to start falling now. Otherwise, it is likely we will see a significant top form within this time frame. We are still not sure if the NASDAQ is an old cycle or new cycle. If it is an old cycle, it is ready to take a steep correction  - perhaps from a new high in this new reversal zone. We will watch for this. For now, we remain on the sidelines.

​Crude oil is making a new weekly high today, but it is still not exceeding its July 6 high at $76.07 (Sept. contract chart). Like the broad stock market, crude could be ready to turn down now, unless it wants to push higher into this new reversal zone. We are still not sure if crude started a new medium-term cycle with last Tuesday's low at  $65.01. If it did, prices should be bullish now, and that July 6 high should be taken out soon. Let's stay on the sidelines of crude for now.

Gold and silver
prices shot up strongly today. Apparently the Fed's slightly hawkish statements from yesterday were not enough to boost the U.S. Dollar Index. The greenback fell today, and this boosted the precious metals. Our long position in gold benefited from this, but now we have to be concerned that prices are rising sharply into an upcoming reversal zone specifically for these metals (July 30 - Aug.11, same as for equities). That means a top could be imminent. Let's see if this rally can gain some legs before we think about selling our long position. Silver may have started a new medium-term cycle with Tueday's low at $24.49, but this upcoming reversal zone (it starts tomorrow) makes me reluctant to chase this rally. If silver makes a top soon, we may watch for a modest sub-cycle correction to go long. Let's stay on the sidelines of silver for now.

Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.