Crude oil is near the end of a medium-term cycle, we are at the center of a strong reversal zone for crude, and crude prices appear to be basing near strong support around $48 at an acceptable target for a cycle bottom. For these reasons, I am going to enter a long position in crude today with a tight stop loss on a close below $48.50. If crude does break below $48, we would probably see a cycle bottom by the first week of August (possibly at a much lower price), but right now the chart analysis is suggesting a reversal any day now at the current price level. Crude made a new monthly low today at $49.77 so that may be the bottom. Going long in crude oil today for a possible rally back to $55 or higher.
The broad stock market has been falling since Monday. While it is possible the major correction we've been waiting for is starting, there are not a lot of technical signals supporting this idea at the moment. Directional momentum in the DOW and S&P 500 is mixed bullish and bearish and the NASDAQ is still 100% bullish. The two pivot points for the long reversal period we are now in are (were) July 18 and July 29. Monday's top was close to the 18th, but now markets are falling sharply into the 29th. We could see another reversal up and another top by the first week of August. I am still waiting for stronger bearish technical signals before considering a short position in this market. Still on the sidelines.
Gold and silver charts are still looking quite bearish and it looks like prices could still go lower before reversing.
On the sidelines but waiting to buy a cycle bottom soon, ideally next week.