CRUDE OIL UPDATE (3:30 pm EDST)
Crude oil prices are falling steeply today and dipped to $54.72 (Aug. contract chart) intraday. This is a bit below our target area of $55 - $56 for a correction, but prices seem to be closing above $55. I am concerned here because directional momentum in this market changed today from mixed bullish and bearish to 100% bearish. This is the first significant sub-cycle correction for a new medium-term cycle that began with the $51.25 low of June 12. If the correction goes much lower, and especially if it breaks below $51.25, it means the cycle is turning bearish and will be headed lower for many more weeks. We move into a new reversal zone that is specifically relevant to crude tomorrow and next week (July 19-30). If prices can stay above $54 our bullish view of crude will not be threatened, and we may have an ideal spot to buy. But a deeper correction will be a warning that the cycle is turning bearish. We will watch this carefully now. On the sidelines of crude oil.
Crude oil prices are falling steeply today and dipped to $54.72 (Aug. contract chart) intraday. This is a bit below our target area of $55 - $56 for a correction, but prices seem to be closing above $55. I am concerned here because directional momentum in this market changed today from mixed bullish and bearish to 100% bearish. This is the first significant sub-cycle correction for a new medium-term cycle that began with the $51.25 low of June 12. If the correction goes much lower, and especially if it breaks below $51.25, it means the cycle is turning bearish and will be headed lower for many more weeks. We move into a new reversal zone that is specifically relevant to crude tomorrow and next week (July 19-30). If prices can stay above $54 our bullish view of crude will not be threatened, and we may have an ideal spot to buy. But a deeper correction will be a warning that the cycle is turning bearish. We will watch this carefully now. On the sidelines of crude oil.
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