BRIEF COMMENT ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (2:30 pm EST)
The remarkable post-election rally we have been seeing in the broad stock market over the last several weeks makes it apparent that the fears that Wall Street had about Donald Trump before the election have been thrown to the wind. Before the election, investors were uncertain (or just did not know) about his policies, but now Wall Street seems to be reading them as strongly pro-business. An exception to this, however, may be the technology sector as the NASDAQ charts have not been as strongly bullish as those of the DOW and S&P 500. How long will this "Trumphoria" last? It's hard to say, but the medium-term cycles in these indices look bullish now which is why we have been looking to go long on any corrective dips. The problem is we haven't been getting any corrections. Next week's Federal Reserve meeting and the specter of an interest rate hike may change that, especially as it is happening within the current reversal zone for equities. An interest rate hike could put a brief damper on this rally and give us a good entry point to buy. We also should keep in mind that equity markets often manifest a "Santa Claus" rally during the holidays so we can probably expect Trumphoria to last at least into the start of the new year. Still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.
The remarkable post-election rally we have been seeing in the broad stock market over the last several weeks makes it apparent that the fears that Wall Street had about Donald Trump before the election have been thrown to the wind. Before the election, investors were uncertain (or just did not know) about his policies, but now Wall Street seems to be reading them as strongly pro-business. An exception to this, however, may be the technology sector as the NASDAQ charts have not been as strongly bullish as those of the DOW and S&P 500. How long will this "Trumphoria" last? It's hard to say, but the medium-term cycles in these indices look bullish now which is why we have been looking to go long on any corrective dips. The problem is we haven't been getting any corrections. Next week's Federal Reserve meeting and the specter of an interest rate hike may change that, especially as it is happening within the current reversal zone for equities. An interest rate hike could put a brief damper on this rally and give us a good entry point to buy. We also should keep in mind that equity markets often manifest a "Santa Claus" rally during the holidays so we can probably expect Trumphoria to last at least into the start of the new year. Still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.
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