BRIEF MARKETS UPDATE (3:15 pm EDT)
Not much has changed since my last blog post on Monday.
The broad stock market has been relatively flat this week. It made a strong attempt to rally yesterday but then pulled back and closed the day in negative territory. We are now in a strong reversal zone April 5 - 21 for equities so the question is will this market fall in this time period and make a significant bottom to reverse up or will it push higher to make a significant high and then reverse down? Either scenario is still possible, but yesterday the NASDAQ made a new all-time high while the DOW and S&P 500 remained below their all-time highs (from March 1). This is a bearish intermarket divergence signal until the DOW and S&P 500 exceed those highs. I am going to hold my short position in the broad stock market for now. Tomorrow's jobs report may influence the direction of this market (and others).
Gold and silver prices also seem indecisive as we move into the center of the reversal zone for precious metals (April 5 - 14). I would still like to see either gold or silver (but not both) exceed their late February highs (that would be $1,263.60 in gold and $18.54 in silver) for a case of intermarket bearish divergence in this reversal zone. That would be a good signal to sell short. But if prices fall sharply now into next week, we may instead see a significant bottom to buy then. Still on the sidelines of gold and silver.
We are now in the center of a reversal zone for crude oil (mostly this week, but it may carry over into the first half of next week). Prices surged to a new weekly high yesterday ($51.88 - May contract chart) so we could see a correction now. Our target for a correction would be in the $48 - $49 area, and we will look to buy if prices can get there. On the sidelines of crude oil.
Not much has changed since my last blog post on Monday.
The broad stock market has been relatively flat this week. It made a strong attempt to rally yesterday but then pulled back and closed the day in negative territory. We are now in a strong reversal zone April 5 - 21 for equities so the question is will this market fall in this time period and make a significant bottom to reverse up or will it push higher to make a significant high and then reverse down? Either scenario is still possible, but yesterday the NASDAQ made a new all-time high while the DOW and S&P 500 remained below their all-time highs (from March 1). This is a bearish intermarket divergence signal until the DOW and S&P 500 exceed those highs. I am going to hold my short position in the broad stock market for now. Tomorrow's jobs report may influence the direction of this market (and others).
Gold and silver prices also seem indecisive as we move into the center of the reversal zone for precious metals (April 5 - 14). I would still like to see either gold or silver (but not both) exceed their late February highs (that would be $1,263.60 in gold and $18.54 in silver) for a case of intermarket bearish divergence in this reversal zone. That would be a good signal to sell short. But if prices fall sharply now into next week, we may instead see a significant bottom to buy then. Still on the sidelines of gold and silver.
We are now in the center of a reversal zone for crude oil (mostly this week, but it may carry over into the first half of next week). Prices surged to a new weekly high yesterday ($51.88 - May contract chart) so we could see a correction now. Our target for a correction would be in the $48 - $49 area, and we will look to buy if prices can get there. On the sidelines of crude oil.
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