BRIEF UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (10:30 pm EDT)
In last Tuesday's blog on the broad stock market I wrote:
"We have been anticipating a final medium-term cycle bottom in all three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). The lows of Aug. 25 in the DOW (34,029) and Aug. 18 in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ (4,336 and 13,162, respectively) may have already been the final bottoms (there was bullish divergence between the DOW and the other two indices), but if this market falls hard over the next several days, we could possibly get new lows. At the moment, this seems most possible in the DOW, but even that index would have to fall hard for a new low by Friday (the last day of our current reversal zone)."
Well, the DOW fell some more last Wednesday, but then it found support and rallied a bit into Friday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell into Thursday, but then both rose a bit on Friday. The 15-day moving average seems to be offering some support to these indices, but if that fails we could still see this market fall into our new reversal zone coming up next week (Sept. 13 - 21). On the other hand, a rally into that time frame is still not out of the question. We'll just have to wait and see which one it will be. If one index (possibly the DOW) makes a new low in this new reversal zone without the other two (bullish divergence), we could see a good spot to buy, but for now we remain on the sidelines of this market.
In last Tuesday's blog on the broad stock market I wrote:
"We have been anticipating a final medium-term cycle bottom in all three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). The lows of Aug. 25 in the DOW (34,029) and Aug. 18 in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ (4,336 and 13,162, respectively) may have already been the final bottoms (there was bullish divergence between the DOW and the other two indices), but if this market falls hard over the next several days, we could possibly get new lows. At the moment, this seems most possible in the DOW, but even that index would have to fall hard for a new low by Friday (the last day of our current reversal zone)."
Well, the DOW fell some more last Wednesday, but then it found support and rallied a bit into Friday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell into Thursday, but then both rose a bit on Friday. The 15-day moving average seems to be offering some support to these indices, but if that fails we could still see this market fall into our new reversal zone coming up next week (Sept. 13 - 21). On the other hand, a rally into that time frame is still not out of the question. We'll just have to wait and see which one it will be. If one index (possibly the DOW) makes a new low in this new reversal zone without the other two (bullish divergence), we could see a good spot to buy, but for now we remain on the sidelines of this market.
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