The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Sunday (night),  October 18,  2015

10/18/2015

 
PRECIOUS METALS UPDATE and SILVER TRADE ALERT  (11:30 pm EDT)

In my many years of trading I have rarely seen financial markets as nervous, unstable, and as volatile as they are now, and yes, this makes them harder to call. Fortunately, cycle studies, timing signals and technical analysis gives us tools to adjust our trading strategies when necessary so we are never lost, even when the markets throw us curve balls. The precious metals are especially tricky to call right now as gold and silver have suddenly shifted their directional trend (from bearish to bullish) over the last few weeks. It is important to note that this may be a short-term shift as the final bottom in the long-term cycles of these two metals may still be coming later this year or early next year. Last week gold and silver broke through important resistance levels which means that both of their medium-term cycles are now pointing up (i.e. bullish trend with a potential for new highs). Nevertheless, gold's medium-term cycle is nearing completion so we need to be watching for a final high in prices and then a sharp correction to the cycle bottom. After analyzing the precious metal charts this weekend, I can see that there is the potential for both a short-term bullish as well as a bearish scenario:

​BULLISH:  Last week I mentioned the importance of the $1232 resistance level in gold. If gold prices can stay above $1164 this week then there is a good chance they will rally and break through that resistance. This is the scenario I favored after gold's surge last week, but I am not so certain now that it will pan out.

BEARISH: Gold prices peaked at $1191.70 last week and turned down within a strong reversal zone. This means prices could continue falling this week. If they break below $1164 they could continue down for at least two more weeks. In this scenario gold could find support around $1150 and rally back up, but prices would not likely exceed $1232 (maybe not even $1191) before turning back down again.

I may have been premature in buying silver last Thursday. Even though silver's cycle is pointed up, last week's reversal zone could first push prices down into a brief but significant correction before rallying to new highs. We have a tight stop loss on our long position at $16 which should be triggered if prices open under $16 tomorrow. Any traders who did not apply a stop loss may want to place a sell order for tomorrow's market opening. Prices closed on Friday close to our buy spot so we should be able to pull out with minimal loss. I apologize for such a short-term trade which is not a normal strategy for me (I am not a day trader), but I think it would be prudent here to avoid a possible steep correction in this highly volatile market. Selling my long position in silver tomorrow (Monday) morning.





Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.