The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Sunday (night),  February 3,  2019

2/3/2019

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (11:00 pm EST)

On Friday the broad stock market closed with the DOW below our stop loss line of 25,100, but the S&P 500 closed a bit above our stop loss of 2,700 (at 2,706). Some traders may have covered their long positions, but I chose to remain short. It still looks like these indices started new medium-term cycles on Dec. 26, which makes them young and bullish, but we are in the time band for a sub-cycle correction, and the market seems to be hesitating at resistance lines in the current reversal zone (that ends on Wednesday). Let's see if this market turns down early next week and gives us a better entry point to cover our shorts and go long. An ideal target now for a correction in the DOW would be around 23,600, but if this market is really bullish, it may only test the 15-day moving average (now around 24,500) before resuming its rally. The S&P 500 would ideally go near 2,550, but it too could only dip to its 15-day moving average (now around 2,650). We will keep these numbers in mind as we watch for some sort of correction next week. On the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.

Gold and silver seem to be moving through the final sub-cycle of their current medium-term cycle which means they are close to their cycle highs which should be followed by a steep correction down to their medium-term cycle bottoms. OK, that's a little confusing, but the bottom line here is that we are looking for a top in the current medium-term cycle (in both metals) and then a sharp correction down to this cycle's final bottom. Prices seem to be falling from last week's highs in both gold and silver, but that was a little too early for a sub-cycle peak, and prices did not get to our target areas (around $1340 in gold and $17 in silver). If prices don't fall too far this week, they could rebound and get closer to those targets over the next week or two. If they do, we may look to sell short at the top. Once the final correction is in, we will look to buy. Still on the sidelines of gold and silver.

Crude oil is also close to making a sub-cycle peak (the first one in its new medium-term cycle that started on Dec. 24 at $42.67 - March contract chart). Friday's high at $55.66 may have been it, and if so a correction back down to $50 would be a good target to buy. We will watch for that. If prices push higher before turning down, we may raise that target, but the sub-cycle bottom is due any time over the next three weeks so we shouldn't have to wait long to go long. On the sidelines of crude but waiting to buy soon.







Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.