The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog         Sunday (night),  August 26,  2018

8/26/2018

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (10:00 pm EDST)

Last Monday (Aug. 20), I wrote on the broad stock market:

"We are now watching for a top in this new reversal zone (Aug. 20 - 28) and especially for a top where one or two, but not all three indices make a new high....Any significant top now could be followed by a very severe correction as it is late in several longer-term cycles for the broad stock market, and the final top for these cycles is due anytime over the next six or seven weeks (and most likely in one of our reversal zones)."

Last week we did get bearish divergence as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made new all-time highs while the DOW did not. We could get a reversal down now, but last week's market closed with other technical signals that were at least short-term bullish. If the DOW can stay below its all-time high (26,617) through Tuesday, we will consider a short position early this week. If all three indices make new highs after Tuesday, and especially if the DOW exceeds its all-time high of 26,617, we may have to wait until the broad stock market's next reversal zone coming up Sept. 7 - 17 for a good shorting opportunity. Still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

Despite last week's update on gold's longer-term cycle which could still be bottoming and thus bearish, we are now watching for a medium-term cycle bottom to buy. (Yes, we can have a significant rally within a longer-term downtrend).  Gold and silver's behavior on Friday was bullish so it is possible those Aug. 15 lows in both metals were the cycle bottoms and the start of new medium-term cycles. We're in a reversal zone for the precious metals through Wednesday, however, so prices could still reverse down to new lows (hopefully in one metal and not the other - i.e. bullish divergence) to give us a better signal to buy. If instead we see prices rallying past Wednesday (without falling first) with gold exceeding $1240 and silver above $15, then we may have to assume new medium-term cycles already started on Aug. 15. On the sidelines of gold and silver.

Crude oil most likely made a significant sub-cycle bottom on Aug. 16 at $63.89 (October contract chart). Unless prices turn down sharply this week, we should see a rally to the next cycle high which will challenge and maybe exceed the $71.29 high of June 29. There is considerable resistance in the $70 - 72 area. If crude stalls in this range, it may be a good opportunity to sell short, especially early this week. If prices stay flat or edge lower this week, we will wait for a top to sell short in the next reversal zone for crude coming up  Sept. 5 - 13. On the sidelines of crude oil.




​

Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.