MARKETS UPDATE (11:15 pm EST)
Friday's jobs and employment report from the U.S. Department of Labor delivered mixed signals to investors. While there was some disappointment that the number of new jobs created fell a little short of expectations (192,000 instead of an expected 200,000 based on a MarketWatch poll of economists), there were some positive data showing a significant increase in the size and participation rate of the labor force. The broad stock market never likes ambiguity, and the DOW reacted to this mixed report with a thumbs down by dropping nearly 160 points by the end of the day. This drop, however, may just be a one day nervous reaction as a major bullish directional signal appeared in the DOW chart on Wednesday, and that index finally broke through its Dec.31st high (16,588) and made a new all-time high at 16,631 on Friday just before its drop. Both the DOW and S&P 500 charts are now nearly 100% bullish. The NASDAQ, though, is maintaining its mixed bullish and bearish momentum, and this index suffered a 2.5% drop on Friday (more severe than the DOW's 1% loss). These indices continue to give us mixed signals. I am remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market until directional signals are more clear.
Short-term technical signals are suggesting that gold and silver could rise a bit more next week before turning down again. Directional momentum remains mixed bullish and bearish in both metals. I may consider short positions if gold rises towards $1330 and silver towards $20.50. Cycle patterns are indicating that we could see a significant bottom in precious metal prices later this month or sometime in May. As long as gold doesn't break below $1000, this bottom will likely be an excellent point to go long in both gold and silver. On the sidelines for now.
Crude oil's cycle picture continues to be a little unclear and directional momentum is still mixed bullish and bearish. This market could go either way right now; however, if crude prices cannot exceed $105 by the end of this month, we could see a major downturn. Still on the sidelines here.
Friday's jobs and employment report from the U.S. Department of Labor delivered mixed signals to investors. While there was some disappointment that the number of new jobs created fell a little short of expectations (192,000 instead of an expected 200,000 based on a MarketWatch poll of economists), there were some positive data showing a significant increase in the size and participation rate of the labor force. The broad stock market never likes ambiguity, and the DOW reacted to this mixed report with a thumbs down by dropping nearly 160 points by the end of the day. This drop, however, may just be a one day nervous reaction as a major bullish directional signal appeared in the DOW chart on Wednesday, and that index finally broke through its Dec.31st high (16,588) and made a new all-time high at 16,631 on Friday just before its drop. Both the DOW and S&P 500 charts are now nearly 100% bullish. The NASDAQ, though, is maintaining its mixed bullish and bearish momentum, and this index suffered a 2.5% drop on Friday (more severe than the DOW's 1% loss). These indices continue to give us mixed signals. I am remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market until directional signals are more clear.
Short-term technical signals are suggesting that gold and silver could rise a bit more next week before turning down again. Directional momentum remains mixed bullish and bearish in both metals. I may consider short positions if gold rises towards $1330 and silver towards $20.50. Cycle patterns are indicating that we could see a significant bottom in precious metal prices later this month or sometime in May. As long as gold doesn't break below $1000, this bottom will likely be an excellent point to go long in both gold and silver. On the sidelines for now.
Crude oil's cycle picture continues to be a little unclear and directional momentum is still mixed bullish and bearish. This market could go either way right now; however, if crude prices cannot exceed $105 by the end of this month, we could see a major downturn. Still on the sidelines here.
RSS Feed