The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog            Monday (late night),  May 27,  2019

5/26/2019

 
BROAD STOCK MARKET TRADE ALERT and MARKETS UPDATE  (11:30 pm EDST)

There is still a very strong possibility that the DOW and S&P 500 started new medium-term cycles from their May 13 lows (at 25,222 and 2,801, respectively). Those lows held when the broad stock market took a strong dive last Thursday. The NASDAQ's May 13 low of 7,627, however, was broken which means it could still be forming the bottom of an older cycle (i.e. it didn't start a new one on May 13). That bottom may have happened last Thursday at 7,585, but it might push lower this week (it is due any time now). Because the NASDAQ did break to a new low last week and the DOW and S&P 500 did not, we now have a strong case of intermarket bullish divergence. All three indices could be starting new medium-term cycles, which would make them very bullish. Or the NASDAQ could push a bit lower while the DOW and/or the S&P 500 hold above their May 13 lows. Either way, we should be looking to go long now in this market to ride a new cycle rally into the summer. What we don't want to see next week is the NASDAQ making a new low AND both the DOW and S&P 500 breaking their May 13 lows. That would be a very bearish sign and could mean a serious washout into June to significantly lower levels in all three indices.

We actually have a very good trade set-up here to go long with a close stop loss beneath our entry point. What we can do is enter a long position now in either the DOW and/or S&P 500 (if you are trading index funds) with a stop loss based on the DOW and S&P 500 both breaking their May 13 lows (25,222 and 2,801) along with a new weekly low in the NASDAQ. I am going to place a trade for Tuesday's market open to go long in the broad stock market (markets are closed today in the U.S. for Memorial Day).

Gold and silver prices pushed up a bit in the second half of last week, but the bearish warnings I described in Wednesday's blog still apply. If gold and silver did start new cycles recently then gold could quickly rise to break its recent high of $1304 and silver could break above $15.64 by the first week of June. If that doesn't happen, we could easily see these metals making new lows into the middle of June. Let's stay on the sidelines of this market for now.

In Wednesday's blog on crude oil I wrote:

"
If the $60 level breaks and this week closes below there it means that May 5 did not start a new cycle and we might have to wait for the final cycle bottom (of an older cycle) probably in the second week of June."

On Thursday crude dropped to $58 and on Friday it got down to $57.50 (July contract chart). Friday may have been the final bottom to this medium-term cycle (but it wasn't in a reversal zone) or we may see a final low this week. But the best fit for the cycle would be to see a final bottom in the next reversal zone specifically for crude, and that would be anytime between June 7 and June 24. An ideal target price range for a bottom now would be around $52 - $56. If we see support this week around  $57 then we might get an early bottom, but ideally we would like to see a lower price into that June reversal period. Still on the sidelines of crude and waiting to buy soon.








Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.