The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Sunday (late night),  June 23,  2019

6/23/2019

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (11:30 pm EDST)

*CORRECTION* : In last week's blogs I stated that the DOW was making new all-time highs. That was incorrect. The DOW exceeded its April 23 high of 26,695, but stayed below its all-time high of 26,951 from Oct. 3, 2018. The S&P 500, however, did make a new all-time high (without the DOW or NASDAQ) so we still have a case of intermarket bearish divergence (until the DOW exceeds 26,951 and the NASDAQ exceeds 8,176).

We shorted the broad stock market on Friday as we had a bearish divergence signal in the center of a strong reversal zone (as well as all three indices closing in the lower half of their day's range on Friday). We are expecting a corrective dip now that will likely be brief (2 - 8 days), but steep. A good target for this correction would be around 26,100 in the DOW and 2,850 in the S&P 500. We will watch to cover our short position if we see support at those levels. There is a possibility of a longer and deeper correction if this market loses confidence (from "trade war" fears, U.S./Iran conflicts, a hawkish Fed, etc.), but right now it looks like the cycle is bullish, and any corrective dip will be brief. If those target levels are significantly breached, though, we will of course stay short. Holding my short position in the broad stock market with a stop loss based on the DOW and NASDAQ both making new all-time highs.

Gold and silver both began new medium-term cycles recently (gold in early May, silver in late May) and both are  looking very bullish. Gold is due for a significant sub-cycle corrective dip now. We want to buy that dip, which may come this week. A good target would be around $1370, but any drop below $1390 followed by a breakout above last week's high ($1415.50) might also be a good signal to buy. A good buy spot for silver would be around $14.80 or any isolated low that corresponds to a corrective bottom in gold. On the sidelines of both metals but looking to buy on a corrective dip.

It looks like we missed the start of a new medium-term cycle in crude oil on June 12 at $51.25 (August contract chart). If we get a correction in the broad stock market this week, crude prices may follow suit with a corrective dip. That could give us a better buy spot in crude. We will watch for it. The price target for the top of this new medium-term cycle is around $75 so we are anxious to get long in crude as soon as possible. Any break below $50 would negate  this bullish view. On the sidelines of crude but and looking to go long soon.




​

Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.