MARKETS UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)
The broad stock market is rising into the center of our current reversal zone (which ends this Thursday), and this is pointing to the start of some sort of correction within the next several days. As I've been saying in recent blogs, I don't think any correction will be serious. Nevertheless, if we get a strong sell signal this week I may take profits and sell my long position just to be on the safe side. In that situation we would look to buy again at the bottom of the correction (if it doesn't go too deep). On the other hand, if this market remains bullish into Friday it could bypass the current reversal zone and continue to rise directly into the next one in the last week of this month. I don't think this will happen, but we are getting close to the U.S. presidential election. Market manipulators may be buoying equity markets against normal cycle patterns. We need to be aware of that possibility. Reasonable targets for any correction now would be around 18,100 - 18,200 in the DOW and around 2,100 in the S&P 500. Holding my long position in the broad stock market for now.
Gold and silver prices rose into Wednesday last week and then fell slightly. If they continue down early this week, we should look for a bottom to buy as we are in the center of a reversal zone for precious metals. Good current targets to watch for would be around $1,300 for gold and $19 (maybe lower) for silver. We may buy these metals at those levels next week if the technical situation looks right. Stay tuned. Currently on the sidelines of both gold and silver.
We are still watching for a pullback in crude oil prices to buy as it looks like the Aug. 3 low of $39.19 (Sept. contract chart) was a medium-term cycle bottom. We may get that pullback in this week's reversal zone. Directional momentum in today's crude oil charts changed from 100% bearish to mixed bullish and bearish. This further supports the idea of a new cycle starting now with a characteristic strong rally. On the sidelines of crude but looking to buy soon.
The broad stock market is rising into the center of our current reversal zone (which ends this Thursday), and this is pointing to the start of some sort of correction within the next several days. As I've been saying in recent blogs, I don't think any correction will be serious. Nevertheless, if we get a strong sell signal this week I may take profits and sell my long position just to be on the safe side. In that situation we would look to buy again at the bottom of the correction (if it doesn't go too deep). On the other hand, if this market remains bullish into Friday it could bypass the current reversal zone and continue to rise directly into the next one in the last week of this month. I don't think this will happen, but we are getting close to the U.S. presidential election. Market manipulators may be buoying equity markets against normal cycle patterns. We need to be aware of that possibility. Reasonable targets for any correction now would be around 18,100 - 18,200 in the DOW and around 2,100 in the S&P 500. Holding my long position in the broad stock market for now.
Gold and silver prices rose into Wednesday last week and then fell slightly. If they continue down early this week, we should look for a bottom to buy as we are in the center of a reversal zone for precious metals. Good current targets to watch for would be around $1,300 for gold and $19 (maybe lower) for silver. We may buy these metals at those levels next week if the technical situation looks right. Stay tuned. Currently on the sidelines of both gold and silver.
We are still watching for a pullback in crude oil prices to buy as it looks like the Aug. 3 low of $39.19 (Sept. contract chart) was a medium-term cycle bottom. We may get that pullback in this week's reversal zone. Directional momentum in today's crude oil charts changed from 100% bearish to mixed bullish and bearish. This further supports the idea of a new cycle starting now with a characteristic strong rally. On the sidelines of crude but looking to buy soon.
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