MARKETS UPDATE (9:30 pm EST)
The DOW remained below its all-time high (31,273) on Friday (but it got really close). We therefore still have our bearish divergence signal (until that high is broken). Some traders are still holding short positions in the S&P 500 (unless they have already been stopped out). It's looking like this market could push higher this week, especially since there's a chance that the DOW and S&P 500 (but probably not the NASDAQ) could have started new medium-term cycles from their lows on Jan. 29. Any traders that are still holding a short position may stay short with a stop loss based on ALL THREE indices making new all-time highs next week. Others may remain on the sidelines for now.
Crude oil seems to be following the bullish trend of the broad stock market as the price is now getting close to $58. As with our equity indices, it is likely late in the current medium-term cycle in crude, and a final top in this cycle should be imminent. If it doesn't top early this week, it may push higher into the last two weeks of this month. We will stay on the sidelines of this market for now.
Last week's wild behavior in the precious metals market (especially in silver - manipulated by day traders inspired by GameStop) has made our cycle labeling very ambiguous at the moment in both gold and silver charts. Regardless of the cycle patterns, a key level to watch now in gold is $1767. A break below there could give us a possible buy spot. Silver is also very tricky to call right now. Despite last week's dramatic rally, this metal could still be bearish and about to fall to new lows in the $22 - $24 area which could also be a potential spot to buy. Let's stay on the sidelines for now and see what direction prices move next week.
The DOW remained below its all-time high (31,273) on Friday (but it got really close). We therefore still have our bearish divergence signal (until that high is broken). Some traders are still holding short positions in the S&P 500 (unless they have already been stopped out). It's looking like this market could push higher this week, especially since there's a chance that the DOW and S&P 500 (but probably not the NASDAQ) could have started new medium-term cycles from their lows on Jan. 29. Any traders that are still holding a short position may stay short with a stop loss based on ALL THREE indices making new all-time highs next week. Others may remain on the sidelines for now.
Crude oil seems to be following the bullish trend of the broad stock market as the price is now getting close to $58. As with our equity indices, it is likely late in the current medium-term cycle in crude, and a final top in this cycle should be imminent. If it doesn't top early this week, it may push higher into the last two weeks of this month. We will stay on the sidelines of this market for now.
Last week's wild behavior in the precious metals market (especially in silver - manipulated by day traders inspired by GameStop) has made our cycle labeling very ambiguous at the moment in both gold and silver charts. Regardless of the cycle patterns, a key level to watch now in gold is $1767. A break below there could give us a possible buy spot. Silver is also very tricky to call right now. Despite last week's dramatic rally, this metal could still be bearish and about to fall to new lows in the $22 - $24 area which could also be a potential spot to buy. Let's stay on the sidelines for now and see what direction prices move next week.
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