BRIEF UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (6:30 pm EST)
It looks like Wall Street was very unhappy with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates last week as equity markets plummeted steeply right after the hike (Wednesday afternoon) and into the closing bell on Friday. We are now at the center of a minor reversal zone (it ends this Friday) so we could see a small bounce or relief rally over the next few trading days. If that rally rises back to around 23,500 in the DOW and 2,550 in the S&P 500 (these were important support levels - now resistance - that broke down last week) then we may have an ideal spot to sell short. It looks like new medium-term cycles started in both these indices on Oct. 29 and have turned bearish so both indices could be headed lower for another 6 - 15 more weeks.
We can't, however, completely rule out the idea that these indices are still completing older medium-term cycles. If that is the case, we could see a final bottom over the next few weeks (probably the second week of January) and a good place to go long for another strong rally into early 2019. I am favoring the former (bearish) scenario for now.
This week is Christmas (Tuesday) so trading may be light even into early the following week (New Year's day). Stay tuned as a good shorting (or maybe buying) opportunity may be imminent in this market. Still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.
It looks like Wall Street was very unhappy with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates last week as equity markets plummeted steeply right after the hike (Wednesday afternoon) and into the closing bell on Friday. We are now at the center of a minor reversal zone (it ends this Friday) so we could see a small bounce or relief rally over the next few trading days. If that rally rises back to around 23,500 in the DOW and 2,550 in the S&P 500 (these were important support levels - now resistance - that broke down last week) then we may have an ideal spot to sell short. It looks like new medium-term cycles started in both these indices on Oct. 29 and have turned bearish so both indices could be headed lower for another 6 - 15 more weeks.
We can't, however, completely rule out the idea that these indices are still completing older medium-term cycles. If that is the case, we could see a final bottom over the next few weeks (probably the second week of January) and a good place to go long for another strong rally into early 2019. I am favoring the former (bearish) scenario for now.
This week is Christmas (Tuesday) so trading may be light even into early the following week (New Year's day). Stay tuned as a good shorting (or maybe buying) opportunity may be imminent in this market. Still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.
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