The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog          Monday,  September 30,  2013

9/30/2013

 
MARKETS  UPDATE   (5:45 pm EST)

The stalemate continues today in the U.S. congressional fight over the funding of Obamacare and especially the funding of the government before the deadline to pass these bills expires at midnight tonight.  The DOW (never comfortable with political uncertainty) showed its nervousness by dropping 128 points by the end of the day, but the precious metals seemed only slightly affected - dropping a bit but still maintaining their positions above support levels around $1300 in gold and $21 in silver.  It seems like these metals are also holding off to the "11th hour" to make their decision to either rally or fall and test new lows.  It is possible that an emergency government funding plan could emerge at the last minute, but even if it doesn't, legislation could be passed to make a shutdown very short-term.  Congress can be very creative when under severe pressure.  Should a shutdown occur, however, markets could panic, so we need to be especially alert tomorrow for any breakdown in gold and silver prices that could compel us to abandon our long position in these metals.  Still holding long positions in gold and silver. 

The broad stock market is also approaching some support just above 15,000, so this would be a good spot to reverse up again if some compromise can be worked out by Congress for government funding.  Of course, a full shutdown might cause the market to break support and plunge, so we cannot rule out that possibility.  Overall momentum in the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts continues to be bullish, but this could change abruptly if the market panics and starts to plunge.  Because of these mixed signals and the potential market volatility from congressional politics this week, I am remaining on the sidelines for now.

Technical and cycle factors are showing a very good buying set up in crude oil right now, with prices finding a strong support around $100-101 from which a strong and steep rally could commence.  As with the broad stock market, however, the political situation in Washington this week could cause oil prices to break this support and plunge lower.
Momentum in this market is mixed bullish and bearish right now so this bearish scenario is quite possible.  I am going to watch crude prices carefully this week, and should Congress find a way to not shut down the government, I may consider going long in crude if support at $100-101 can hold.  Although the U.S. conflict with Syria has cooled in recent weeks, any reemergence of military tension there would be a wind in the back of any crude oil rally, so the normally "wildcard" factor of the Middle East on oil prices would be in our favor should we go long.  On the sidelines  for now but possibly looking to go long soon.

Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.