The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog         Monday,  September 18,  2017

9/18/2017

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (7:00 pm EDT)

We are living in strange economic times. Equity markets are extremely overbought, and there are many reasons for them to turn down now (e.g. widespread geopolitical instability, threats of nuclear war, natural disasters, a controversial U.S. president, and a U.S. financial debt of over 13 trillion), and yet Wall Street continues to chug along, seemingly oblivious to all of these things that years ago could have easily caused a market selloff.  My attitude here is to be cautiously optimistic. We will rely on cycle analysis and technical signals to tell us when the market trend seems bullish (as it does now), but we must keep a cautious eye on any downward corrections (especially from tops in reversal zones) as in this current volatile environment (geopolitical and financial) any dip could easily start to snowball into a major equity selloff.

On Friday the NASDAQ finally made a new all-time high (the DOW and S&P 500 made new all-time highs earlier in the week), and today all three indices are pushing higher. This is a bullish sign (i.e. no bearish divergence) that the broad stock market will continue higher. The NASDAQ index that I normally follow (and report on here) is the NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED). The nearby (Dec.) contract chart for the NASDAQ 100 INDEX (E-Mini), another popular NASDAQ index, however, did not make a new all-time high last week and also closed down a bit today. This may not be that significant, but I would like to see this index also break and close above its all-time high (6,026) to avert the possibility of all these indices taking a serious turn down now.  Any minor dip in the DOW and S&P 500 would probably give us a good opportunity to go long for a likely rally into the next strong reversal zone coming up at the end of next week and into the first week of October. Longer-term, we are still watching for a peak in the current medium-term cycle (or possibly the next one) from which a significant correction could follow. That top could be in this next reversal zone. The game plan here is to look to buy and ride a rally into early October at which time we will step aside again and maybe even sell short.  On the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.  

Gold and silver prices fell steeply today. Gold is now getting close to our target price around $1,300 so we should be looking to buy soon. In terms of timing, it would be best to buy closer to the end of this week or even next week. Because both metals made new weekly lows today, we are not going to see any intermarket bullish divergence this week. That could happen next week, though, and if it does it would be a good buy signal.  Let's see if these precious metals can get a bit lower before we consider a long position. Gold might go lower than $1,300, but we don't want to see it below $1,280. Silver could get down as low as $16, but we will consider buying close to $17. On the sidelines of both gold and silver but looking to buy this week or next.

Crude oil
prices seem to be testing the $50 mark (Oct. contract chart) but have yet to close above it. As I mentioned in my last blog, we need to see prices get above the $50.51 high from Aug. 1 for crude's trend to stay bullish. A good target for the current rally would be $53 - $54. All of next week is a reversal zone specifically for crude oil. Let's see if crude prices can rally closer to our target into that time frame. Holding my long position in crude oil.



​

Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.