The cycle labeling for the DOW and S&P 500 is still ambiguous (old or new medium-term cycles), but it looks like we are coming to the end of an older medium-term cycle in the NASDAQ. There is a strong chance we could see the final bottom to this cycle by Thursday (the end of the current reversal zone) somewhere below 10,500. That could be a good spot to buy. If instead the broad stock market rallies into Thursday, we could get that second chance to sell the NASDAQ short that I discussed in last Thursday's blog:
"We missed the peak (12,074 on Sept. 2) to sell short, but ... any rebound in our current reversal zone could give us a second chance to go short, especially if that bounce brings us back up to 11,500 or above."
So we will wait to see how this moves into Thursday. A rally above that 11,500 level may be a a good point to sell short, as long as it doesn't exceed the all-time high of 12,074. Otherwise, we will anticipate buying a drop below 10,500. We are on the sidelines of this market for now.
Crude oil is likely making its final medium-term cycle bottom now (if it didn't make it on last Tuesday's low at $36.13 (Oct. contract chart). Our current reversal zone ends Thursday so we will fish for a good buy spot near $36 this week. On the sidelines of crude oil for now.