MARKETS UPDATE (7:30 pm EDT)
The NASDAQ made a new all-time high today while the DOW and S&P 500 did not, and all three indices closed in the lower part of their day's range. Thus we are starting the week with a bearish divergence signal in a reversal zone. I am tempted to sell short here, but the reversal zone extends into Friday, and a positive jobs report is expected then. Bullish sentiment in this market could keep equities buoyant into the end of the week so I am going to stay on the sidelines for now. If markets do fall steeply into the end of the week, we will consider buying, but new highs into that time (especially if we maintain bearish divergence) would likely be a good shorting opportunity.
Gold and silver are starting the week in positive territory as we now enter a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals that lasts all week. I would prefer to see prices go lower into this reversal period towards the final bottom of an older medium-term gold and/or silver cycle and a good spot to buy.. But there is still the possibility that we started new cycles on Oct. 6. If we have newer cycles then these metals could rally strongly now. If gold closes above $1,286, that would support the bullish case. Breaking below last week's lows, and especially below gold and silver's lows from Oct. 6 would be bearish and would support the idea of older cycles. We will stay on the sidelines until one of these patterns asserts itself.
Crude oil prices are also moving up into a reversal zone this week, and today we are making new cycle highs. We are also approaching a resistance area around $55 (Dec. contract chart). We should be looking for a top to sell short this week. Let's see if we can edge up closer to $55 and watch for a short-term sell signal. That could come any day now. Still on the sidelines of crude.
The NASDAQ made a new all-time high today while the DOW and S&P 500 did not, and all three indices closed in the lower part of their day's range. Thus we are starting the week with a bearish divergence signal in a reversal zone. I am tempted to sell short here, but the reversal zone extends into Friday, and a positive jobs report is expected then. Bullish sentiment in this market could keep equities buoyant into the end of the week so I am going to stay on the sidelines for now. If markets do fall steeply into the end of the week, we will consider buying, but new highs into that time (especially if we maintain bearish divergence) would likely be a good shorting opportunity.
Gold and silver are starting the week in positive territory as we now enter a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals that lasts all week. I would prefer to see prices go lower into this reversal period towards the final bottom of an older medium-term gold and/or silver cycle and a good spot to buy.. But there is still the possibility that we started new cycles on Oct. 6. If we have newer cycles then these metals could rally strongly now. If gold closes above $1,286, that would support the bullish case. Breaking below last week's lows, and especially below gold and silver's lows from Oct. 6 would be bearish and would support the idea of older cycles. We will stay on the sidelines until one of these patterns asserts itself.
Crude oil prices are also moving up into a reversal zone this week, and today we are making new cycle highs. We are also approaching a resistance area around $55 (Dec. contract chart). We should be looking for a top to sell short this week. Let's see if we can edge up closer to $55 and watch for a short-term sell signal. That could come any day now. Still on the sidelines of crude.
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